5-1...

For the second straight year, our heroes are 5-1.

Last season, they started hot by beating an atrocious Tampa Bay team two games in a row (squeezing by with 2-1 wins in each while outshooting them 80-40 in those two games). That should've sent up red flares that they could only score on 1 out of 20 shots, but it didn't, because they kept winning. They beat Chicago in the home opener, then went into Philly and won and then beat the Devils at home.

Then the wheels fell off the bus. Buffalo found out how to defeat the Rangers, and just like that, they were beatable. They ended October 10-2-1 on the strength of 2 shootout victories. In fact, they had 10 shootout wins last year, and without them, making the playoffs would've been a lot tougher. (And you say Nik Zherdev contributed nothing to that team...)

A 10-2-1 start, 21 points in 13 games, and they still barely make the playoffs due to a lack of scoring and an over-reliance of Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival on the power play. The team would never really give up in games, but they couldn't finish when they needed to.

Take Game 7 in Washington. Oh, they tried very hard. Nik Antropov had a good game. Markus Naslund even played well. Henrik Lundqvist was spectacular. But a bad bounce off their own players tied the game 1-1, and no matter how hard they tried and how fast they scrambled, they couldn't put the puck in the net.

So, at 5-1 this year, I'm a little wary. Sure, it's a great record and 10 points so early in the season is very nice to have. And of course, a 4-goal 3rd period in the 2nd game of back-to-backs shouldn't be sneezed at. And it was a nice team-effort in shutting out Anaheim Sunday. And beating Washington and NJ in back-and-forth games was exciting.

But still, I'm wary. Although I must say, I have more faith in this team than last year. The rookies are playing great, Enver Lisin looks like Petr Prucha out there, Brandon Dubinsky looks better than he ever has, Chris Drury doesn't have pressure on him to score so he can play his game, and they can actually score when they need to.

It's early on though. Last year I mentioned words like "core" and "real deal" and "unstoppable" to describe their play in October, and look where it got them.

* * *

Just a question for those of you who were at the game. Did Wade Redden get cheered when he was came out as 3rd star of the game? I had a wedding so all I could watch were parts of the replay and Rangers in 60.

Bryan's 2009-10 NHL Predictions

Generally speaking, most hockey pundits follow the same formula when it comes to doing season previews. Usually, they give you a bunch of crap you don't really care about as the season nears, then release their picks for the playoffs, the Stanley Cup and the post-season awards on the day of the first game. Of course, they don't do this for your benefit. They do it because that's the day everyone else puts out their predictions.

See, the earlier someone releases his or her predictions, the more that person or publication gets scrutinized and bashed, and nobody really wants that. Because in the end, predictions are just more mindless blather from people who don't really know anything. They're entertainment at best, and the sooner you forget about them, the happier major publications are. When ESPN did its NFL predictions, 75 percent of their "experts" had the same exact playoff teams in the AFC, five of which made the playoffs last year, and that's in a sport where at least three teams from each conference come from out of nowhere to make the playoffs. So you can only imagine what they, and everyone else, have in store for us on October 1.

Personally, I'd love to blend in with the rest of the opining masses and put out my picks with everyone else. Unfortunately, I can't do that. My wife is due to give birth on October 10 and I sort of need to be ready for that, so I can't just submit my picks at the last minute. Besides, I genuinely enjoy making predictions, even if they're horribly wrong. Remember, I'm the same person who had Barry Melrose winning the Adams last year.

Last year, I stumbled onto what I thought was a winning formula. I took last year's standings and simply figured out who would be better or worse than they were a year ago. This year, I'm taking it one step further by giving point totals for how much better or worse I think each team will be. While these revised point totals are not meant to be taken very literally, they're a decent guide for how much teams have improved (or gotten worse) without worrying about playoff positioning.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston (116): Same. The Bruins' loss to Carolina in Game 7 will end up being a blessing in disguise. The pain of defeat will help the Bruins to maintain their focus throughout this season.

2) Washington (108): +5. Not unlike the Bruins, the Capitals have plenty to prove. The Southeast division crown is a given, but the Caps should really be aiming for the President's Trophy.

3) New Jersey (106): Same. Every year, everyone writes the Devils off. Every year, the Devils make the playoffs. Until they falter, I have no reason to doubt they'll be great once again.

4) Pittsburgh (99): +6. The Penguins played like crap until it mattered last year, then proceeded to win the Cup. They might have a bit of a Cup hangover, but they should still hit 100 points.

5) Philadelphia (99): -4. Yes, the Flyers have Chris Pronger. No, they do not have a reliable goaltender for the playoffs. AGAIN.

6) Carolina (97): -10. Carolina went on an insane run to get into last year's playoffs and had a tremendous run once they got in. I can't see them doing it again, though.

7) NY Rangers (95): Same. Many are picking an off year for the Rangers, which can only mean that they will be very good. At any rate, it's hard to say this Rangers team is worse than it was a year ago. Even if they are, Henrik Lundqvist will keep them afloat.

8) Montreal (93): +4. Last year was a disaster. I blame the hoopla over the Habs' 100th anniversary. They should be improved, if only because there will be slightly less chaos surrounding the Canadiens.

9) Florida (93): -6. Last year was their chance. They just barely missed it. Now they have to work on getting Florida to care about hockey again, only they have to do it without Jay Bouwmeester. Good luck with that.

10) Buffalo (91): Same. It's hard to get excited about a team that considers giving Tim Connolly a lucrative extension a step in the right direction. They seem destined to be a bubble team for the forseeable future.

11) Ottawa (83): +10. The Senators will surely improve now that the Dany Heatley fiasco is over. Besides, they're not that bad. Lastly, for all Heatley did to villify Cory Clouston, the Sens managed 42 points in the 34 games Clouston coached. That's a 101-point pace.

12) Toronto (81): +5. This might come as a shock to Maple Leafs fans, but Mike Komisarek and his two goals in 2008-09 are not the answer. Nor is Colton Orr's 4-year contract or any of the other moves Brian Burke made in the name of toughness.

13) Atlanta (76): Same. The Thrashers will try to make something happen this year, if only because it's their only shot at getting Ilya Kovalchuk to re-sign. Look for him to be dumped at the trade deadline for about 70 cents on the dollar.

14) Tampa Bay (66): +9. It's hard to have a worse season than the Lightning did last year. They should be much improved this year now that Steven Stamkos knows the NHL. Matt Lashoff and Victor Hedman should significantly improve the Lightning's defense.

15) NY Islanders (61): +16. The Isles make the biggest jump for a number of reasons. They have actual NHL goalies, they can't possibly have as many injuries as they had last year, and their young players will improve.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose (117): -5. Does San Jose finally understand that the regular season is merely a dress rehearsal for what's really important? Probably not. But 117 points is a lot of points. I don't see them getting quite that many.

2) Detroit (112): -14. Detroit takes a big step back in terms of points, but they'll still be a factor in the playoffs. They've got too tough of a division to put up 112 points again.

3) Vancouver (100): -4. Now that the Canucks have tied up their future in the Sedin twins, they have a long future ahead of being above-average, but never truly great. Did you know that their sweep of the Blues in April was their first sweep in franchise history? Wow.

4) Chicago (104): +4. Chicago finishes the job after a dream season last year. There's a chance the team has a bout of complacency during the season, but they should be able to win the Central.

5) Calgary (98): -6. Calgary over-achieved last year. Brent Sutter is an upgrade behind the bench over Mike Keenan, but that doesn't change the fact that Miikaa Kiprusoff is the most overrated player in the NHL.

6) St. Louis (92): Same. It was tempting to give the Blues a significant bump in points, but they won't sneak up on anyone this year. That said, they'll be even better than they were last year, so at worst these two factors will cancel each other out.

7) Columbus (92): +3. The Blue Jackets are for real. They held their own last year in a very tough division. They'll only improve with a full season from Derick Brassard.

8) Anaheim (91) +9: The Ducks proved how much the regular season means when they whooped San jose in the first round last year. This year, they should be a lot more focused. They won't be stuck with the eighth seed next April.

9) Minnesota (89): -5. Everyone's all excited that the Wild isn't going to be playing the trap anymore. However, the change from all-defense to all-offense isn't going to happen overnight. This looks to be a transitional year for the Wild.

10) Nashville (88): Same. I keep waiting for the year where Nashville puts it all together. Still waiting. Will still be waiting after this year. The Predators' big acquisition this off-season was Francis Bouillon. Poor Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne.

11) Edmonton (85): +10. Last year, I predicted an off year for Edmonton because they wouldn't pick up a ton of points in shootouts two years in a row. This year, though, the young players are ready to put it all together.

12) Dallas (83): +7. Dallas improved significantly last year after dumping Sean Avery. Problem is, a lot of other teams improved too. I'll take up-and-coming young teams like LA and Edmonton over this Dallas team.

13) Phoenix (79): +9. People forget that the Coyotes were as high as fifth in the West last January before totally crapping out in the second half. The drama with the team's move may actually serve to bring the team together. And you can't deny their young talent, which might be the best group of prospects in the NHL.

14) Los Angeles (79): +11. Speaking of enviable pools of talent, the Kings should be a team to watch now that they have a legitimate franchise goalie in Jonathan Quick. They might not be a playoff team, but they'll be close.

15) Colorado (69): Same. The rebuild begins in Colorado without Joe Sakic. It's not going to be pretty.

****

So, if we do the math, here's how my vision of the NHL shakes out for 2009-10...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Boston (116)

2) Washington (111)

3) New Jersey (106)

4) Pittsburgh (105)

5) Montreal (97)

6) NY Rangers (95)

7) Philadelphia (95)

8) Ottawa (93)

9) Buffalo (91)

10) Carolina (87)

11) Florida (87)

12) Toronto (86)

13) NY Islanders (77)

14) Atlanta (76)

15) Tampa Bay (75)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose (112)

2) Chicago (108)

3) Vancouver (96)

4) Anaheim (100)

5) Detroit (98)

6) Columbus (95)

7) Edmonton (95)

8) St. Louis (92)

9) Calgary (92)

10) Los Angeles (90)

11) Dallas (90)

12) Phoenix (88)

13) Nashville (88)

14) Minnesota (84)

15) Colorado (69)

PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Boston def. (8) Ottawa 4-2

(2) Washington def. (7) Philadelphia 4-0

(6) NY Rangers def. (3) New Jersey 4-3

(4) Pittsburgh def. (5) Montreal 4-1

(1) Boston def. (6) NY Rangers 4-2

(2) Washington def. (4) Pittsburgh 4-3

(2) Washington def. (1) Boston 4-1

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) San Jose def. (8) St. Louis 4-3

(2) Chicago def. (7) Edmonton 4-0

(6) Columbus def. (3) Vancouver 4-2

(5) Detroit def. (4) Anaheim 4-3

(1) San Jose def. (6) Columbus 4-3

(2) Chicago def. (5) Detroit 4-1

(2) Chicago def. (1) San Jose 4-2

STANLEY CUP FINAL

(2) Washington def. (2) Chicago 4-2

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Hart Trophy: Zach Parise, New Jersey

Art Ross Trophy: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh

Richard Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington

Vezina Trophy: Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers

Norris Trophy: Dan Boyle, San Jose

Calder Trophy: Nikita Filatov, Columbus

Adams Trophy: Dave Tippett, Phoenix

Selke Trophy: Mike Richards, Philadelphia

Conn Smythe Trophy: Alexander Semin, Washington

Islanders 2009-10 Schedule Analysis

Last year, on the day when the 2008-09 schedule was released, I did a post talking about the schedule and predicting how the Islanders would fare. Honestly, it was one of the most fun blogs I did all year. Now that the 2009-10 schedule is here, let's take a look at how things shake out for the Islanders.

- October is going to be a brutal month. Thanks to the Olympic Games, the schedule is super-compressed and starts earlier than it might. And it just so happens that the Islanders are getting slammed with quality opponents in the first month of the season. Let's check out this stretch starting on October 17 - home against San Jose, home against Carolina, at Montreal, home against Washington, at Montreal, home against the Rangers, at Washington. All of this takes place in a 14-day span. So, to recap, that's seven games against 2009 playoff teams, including two cross-country trips, in two weeks. To say this is a test would be an extreme understatement.

- Unfortunately for the Islanders, the real test comes in November. With the exception of a home game on November 7 against Atlanta, the Islanders will spend 19 straight days on the road. They'll stop in Buffalo, New Jersey, Washington, Carolina, Florida, Boston, Minnesota, St. Louis and Toronto. Five playoff teams in that group and three that just missed out. Oh, and the Islanders' Thanksgiving celebration is bookended with home games against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And after that, the Isles head out on the road again to play the Devils, Thrashers, Lightning, Flyers, and Maple Leafs.

- The silver lining is that after the Islanders come home after their December 9 game in Toronto, they'll spend virtually the rest of 2009 at home. The Isles' ten home games between December 12 and December 29 are all played in New York. They play two games at home, face the Rangers on the 16th, play four more at home, head to the Garden again on the 26th, and then play two more at home before traveling to Ottawa for a New Year's Eve game.

- The rest of the schedule pretty much follows the pattern of bizarre, long stretches at home or on the road. After a three-game Western Conference swing in January, they get six out of seven at home - which, of course, is followed by a four-game road trip. Then, in March, they play four out of five at home and follow that by playing four in a row on the road. Thankfully, the Islanders finish out the 2009-10 season by playing five of seven at home.

- That final stretch will be key if the Isles intend to make a playoff push. The Islanders' final ten games include two against the Rangers and two against the Penguins; they also take on the Flyers and Devils once. In other words, if the Islanders will prove if they're a playoff team or if they're still a year away during this stretch.

- Five. That's the number of times the Islanders will be forced to play games on consecutive nights with less than 24 hours between start times. I'm not talking about 30-minute differences, either. Most of these are 7 PM faceoffs followed by 5 PM starts the next day. As if it wasn't bad enough that they're scheduled to be playing two full games within a 24-hour period five times, on four of these occasions, the Islanders are traveling between games. So, for example, the Islanders will play a game at the Garden against the Rangers at 7, have to travel back home, and then host a well-rested Flyers team at 5 the next day. Do other teams have to do this? I sincerely doubt it.

- I know this will come as a surprise, but the Islanders don't look to be a popular candidate for NBC games this year. Not one of their Sunday games starts earlier than 5 PM - and as we all know, NBC has better things to show at 5 PM on Sundays than hockey. The Rangers, of course, have four Sunday games starting at either 1 PM or 3 PM. As for Versus, it's interesting to note that the Islanders don't play a single Monday night game after December 21. Presumably, this is so Versus can burn through the Islanders game(s) they're required to show and save the Mondays later in the season for more TV-friendly, playoff-contending teams. The Isles do have plenty of Tuesday night games, as the schedule largely sticks to the Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday norm we've seen over the years.

- The day when the Islanders don't have to promote the Rangers on their own website is a day I'll be a happy man. As it is, though, the Islanders' main page trumpets Rangers games as the biggest attractions on the schedule after Opening Night. That's sort of depressing. The Islanders, and their fans, will never develop their own identity if they're constantly comparing themselves to the Rangers. They're fun games and it's a fun rivalry, but come on. Let John Tavares and the young talent sell this team, not three visits from the cross-town rivals.

- West Coast teams that will be visiting the Coliseum this year: Los Angeles (sadly, they probably won't be wearing their awesome third jerseys), Sharks (I'd be there if my wife wasn't due to have a baby that week), Oilers (the Islanders of the West, basically), Blue Jackets (I'm there), Red Wings (awesome), Predators (when were they last here, 2002?), Blackhawks (ooh), Blues (good young team), Flames (good test for the Islanders). The Isles will be heading to Minnesota, St. Louis, Colorado, Dallas, Phoenix, Vancouver, Los Angeles, Anaheim, and Columbus. So, for those who care, they're double-dipping against LA, Columbus, Minnesota, and St. Louis. Not bad.

- Looking at this schedule, I still see the Islanders much the same as I did beforehand - a team that should be good for somewhere between 80 and 85 points in 2009-10. I'm leaning towards the lower side of that number now, if only because the final weeks are going to beat the crap out of this team. Having said that, a healthy Rick DiPietro can make a huge difference for the Islanders. He might even get them in position to get them into the playoffs. Who knows?

- My friend Leslie, writer of The Lefty Stick blog, just purchased season tickets and invited me to call some games. Much to my surprise, I picked mostly games against Western opponents. In fact, the only game against an Eastern opponent I picked was a December game against Boston. I used to hate games against the West and actually loved the post-lockout schedule where there were only a handful of inter-conference games a year. Now? Seeing those Western teams is going to be a huge thrill.

- As for the rest of the league... as bad as the Islanders got the shaft, the teams that are worst off are the teams opening the season in Europe. Last year, those teams got a head start and were home before the season began for everyone else. This year? Not so much. Those teams actually play after some of the teams who will be opening the season from the comfort of their own homes. So these teams not only have to deal with flights to and from Europe, they have to do so on the same compressed schedule as the rest of the league. I sure hope these teams are being well-compensated for their sacrifices.

- The Winter Classic... ugh. It's starting to get ridiculous now. As we all know, the Winter Classic is no longer a bone thrown to the fans, a special moment in a very long regular season. Instead, the Winter Classic is like the Super Bowl or interleague play in baseball - it's something for the non-hockey fans who watch one game a year and act as if they follow hockey. If the NHL really cared about what the fans wanted to see, they'd have the Bruins facing the Canadiens, not the Flyers. But this is the NHL and NBC we're dealing with, and NBC is convinced there are only six teams in the entire league - the Flyers, the Rangers, the Penguins, the Capitals, the Red Wings, and the Blackhawks. Did you know that the Bruins and Flyers have a rivalry? I sure as hell didn't. And yet, Gary Bettman hails it as "a great rivalry". Um, NO. Speaking of rivalries, for those of you who are happy that the Rangers weren't a part of this year's game and are holding out hope for an Isles-Rangers Winter Classic, it's never going to happen. Bettman would never take the chance of an ugly incident happening in the league's showcase game, and Isles-Rangers can get a little intense at times - if not on the ice, then definitely in the crowd. Next year's game will obviously be Rangers-Capitals at Yankee Stadium, because God forbid NBC showcases a team outside of their usual favorites.