2010-11 Predictions

Yesterday, Zach cited my proficiency at pre-season predictions (nice alliteration). I managed to beat out "experts" like Eklund and E.J. Hradek, which is going on my resume ASAP. After a nice little celebration, which consisted of merely a smile and a fist pump, I submit my predictions for 2010-11. Just a note for purposes of full disclosure, I went on a nice five-month break from everything that relates to hockey. If these predictions make no sense, I'd cite that as a reason. Of course, if these predictions do come true, forget I said anything.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Washington

2) New Jersey

3) Boston

4) Pittsburgh

5) NY Rangers

6) Montreal

7) Tampa Bay

8) Toronto

9) Philadelphia

10) Buffalo

11) NY Islanders

12) Atlanta

13) Ottawa

14) Carolina

15) Florida

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose

2) Detroit

3) Vancouver

4) Chicago

5) Los Angeles

6) Colorado

7) Nashville

8) St. Louis

9) Edmonton

10) Columbus

11) Calgary

12) Anaheim

13) Phoenix

14) Dallas

15) Minnesota

CONFERENCE FINALS

Washington over NY Rangers

Detroit over Chicago

CUP FINAL

Detroit over Washington in 6

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS

Picking the right teams to finish in the right spots is the easy part of prognostication. The far more difficult (and fun) proposition is to predict the events of the season. As I see it, the season will include the following elements...

 - A big-name coach will be fired before November 15. My prediction: John Tortorella.

 - An unheralded team will come out of nowhere to start red-hot, defying "experts". Last year, it was Phoenix and Colorado. This year, I pick Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

 - The league's new blind-side hits rule will prove itself to be woefully ineffective, resulting in at least one suspension in the league's first month.

 - Islanders fans will pine for Billy Jaffe by the time the first period ends tonight. Fans will also proclaim the new radio deal with Hofstra as "bush-league" and clamor for the return of the simulcast before ever hearing a game on the radio.

 - None of the agonizing decisions and heated debates over who should be the 23rd man on an NHL roster will amount to anything.

 - This year's Winter Classic will draw the highest ratings and interest levels the NHL has ever seen.

 - The Islanders-Rangers rivalry will finally receive a shot in the arm, with at least one big fight or controversial incident helping these games reach their potential.

 - Doug Weight and Dwayne Roloson will be traded at the trade deadline.

 - The Islanders will get off to a slow start, but nobody will question the bizarre split-squad games as a potential reason why.

 - Rick DiPietro will finally make it through a season in perfect health.

 - Henrik Lundqvist will finally get to go on a ridiculous playoff run.

 - Ilya Kovalchuk will win the Hart Trophy.

 - The Jack Adams Award will go to a first-year coach who makes a big difference. I predict Guy Boucher of Tampa Bay.

 - At least one team will unveil a new retro third jersey that will end up replacing their current uniforms next year.

 - The NHL will re-sign with NBC, but will take its cable package to TBS.

 - Bad officiating and inconsistent discipline will become a huge issue yet again, this time playing a significant role in the Stanley Cup Final.

Looking Back at Predictions...

Every year, I compile the preseason predictions of both writers on this site as well as 3 or 4 other predictions. Last year, I only gathered 5 of them. Besides Bryan and me, I collected Yahoo’s hockey blogger Puck Daddy’s, Eklund from HockeyBuzz.com, and the TSN.ca, who puts together a consensus each year after averaging out their reporters’ picks.

Two straight years, Eklund has been the winner. In the 2008-09 season, however, Islanders’ writer Bryan was nipping on his heels, losing by only 1 points (28-27). I ended with the line, Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.

I was awful last year, scoring only 19 points and coming in 6th out of 6th place.

This year, the most popular pick was Pittsburgh to come in 4th, which they did. Everyone thought Boston would win the Northeast (they didn’t) and everyone thought Carolina would make the playoffs (they didn’t). Lesson learned: don’t always base predictions on last year’s efforts.

The scoring is as follows: 1 point for predicting a team to either make or miss the playoffs, and 2 points for correctly guessing the final conference standing of a team.

5th Place - NYHockeyRivalry.com’s Zach
As is becoming tradition, I came in dead last again. My only two correct spots were the Conference winners, Washington and San Jose. As it turns out, the Rangers, Carolina, and Atlanta didn’t make the playoffs. Buffalo, who I thought would end 14th in the East, came in 3rd. In the West, I only guessed 3 playoff teams correctly (SJ, Detroit, Chicago). Apparently, Calgary and Minnesota weren’t as good as I thought they would be.
16 points

2nd Places - Puck Daddy, Eklund, TSN
All 3 outlets each scored the same amount of points.

Puck Daddy had a great Eastern Conference with just one mistake: Carolina in the playoffs and Ottawa out.

Eklund, the two-time reigning champion, make a crucial error in picking his favorite team - the Flyers - to win the Atlantic, when in reality they snuck into the playoffs.

TSN picked the Rangers and Carolina to make the playoffs, leaving out actual playoff teams Ottawa and Buffalo.
23 points

1st Place - NYHockeyRivalry.com’s Bryan
Bryan correctly predicted the Eastern playoff teams except for one mistake: putting the Rangers in instead of Buffalo. He correctly guessed the Penguins coming in 4th, the Flyers in 7th, and the Islanders in 13th. He did have Washington and NJ winning their divisions like they did, but had the order messed up.

In the West, he not only guessed every eventual division winner, he guessed them in order (San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver). So, in total, he got 5 of 6 division winners correct in the NHL. He also correctly guessed Detroit in 5th in the West, making the 7 correct picks a new record!

Nice job, Bryan. Looks like next year could be this year,
27 points

I also have to give credit to ESPN's John Buccigross and Barry Melrose. Buccigross predicted Philadelphia beating Chicago in the Finals, while Melrose actually predicted the eventual result, Chicago beating the Flyers for the Stanley Cup.

Predictions...

Well, I haven't written anything since March on here, and it's 7:16 on the morning of the NHL's first games. In less than 5 hours, the puck will drop in Helsinki between two great teams - Derek Boogaard's former team (the Minnesota Wild) and Bobby Sanguenetti's current team (the Carolina Hurricanes, and yes, he made the NHL team).

Predictions - the best and worst part of October. Everyone is normally wrong, but they're fun to debate anyway. So, here we go...

Eastern Conference
1. Washington Capitals
2. New Jersey Devils
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Buffalo Sabres
6. NY Rangers
7. Tampa Bay Lightning
8. Philadelphia Flyers
9. Atlanta Thrashers
10. Boston Bruins
11. NY Islanders
12. Carolina Hurricanes
13. Florida Panthers
14. Ottawa Senators
15. Montreal Canadiens

Notes: The Rangers missed the playoffs by 1 point yet improved a lot over the offseason. They got a better backup goalie than they had (Martin Biron is in fact better than any combination of Chad Johnson and Matt Zaba and Steve Valiquette) and Alex Frolov is going to add much more offense than Aaron Voros.

Tampa Bay has a great forward line up including Lecavilier, Stamkos, St. Louis, Ryan Malone, and Steve Downie. With Victor Hedman and Mattias Ohlund on the blue line and competent goaltending in Dan Ellis and Mike Smith, they should take make the playoffs, edging out a much improved Chicago Blackha err, Atlanta Thrashers team.

In the Northeast, I can't see an aging Ottawa team with questionable goaltending making the playoffs again. Yes, Sergei Gonchar is good, but I think he'll fall apart without Crosby and Malkin on the same PP unit. And Toronto might be unstoppable. The best defense in the NHL (Beauchemin, Kaberle, Komisarek, Lebda, Phaneuf, Schenn), solid goaltending (Giguere, Gustavsson), and a much improved offense featuring Colby Armstrong, Kris Versteeg, and a healthy Phil Kessel. The Leafs... will... be... very... good.

And I don't think Florida will - or should - ever make the playoffs again. Send that stupid team to Canada already!

Western Conference
1. Vancouver Canucks
2. San Jose Sharks
3. Detroit Red Wings
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Phoenix Coyotes
6. Los Angeles Kings
7. Colorado Avalance
8. St. Louis Blues
9. Nashville Predators
10. Edmonton Oilers
11. Calgary Flames
12. Columbus Blue Jackets
13. Anaheim Ducks
14. Minnesota Wild
15. Dallas Stars

Notes: Vancouver should win the division because they have the best goaltending of the top contenders. I mean, I guess Chicago would (with Marty Turco) if I were writing predictions for 2003-04. With Raffi Torres, Manny Malhotra, and Dan Hamhuis, the Canucks improved under-the-radar, but all 3 are great additions.

I think the East is a lot stronger this year. The top 5 teams in the West are good, but all have their flaws. Is Detroit getting too old (and Mike Modano is not an injection of youth)? Does San Jose, LA, or Chicago have the goaltending?

Does LA have the offense? They'll need better years from Dustin Brown and Ryan Smyth and a breakout year from Wayne Simmonds. Alex Ponikarovsky replaces Frolov, but can he?

Edmonton, while not a playoff team yet, is building something with Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Magnus Paajarvi. Tom Renney will be great there.

Anaheim must be content being middle-of-the-road. All they did was sign 3 marginally good defenseman (Paul Mara, who I love; Toni Lydman; and Andy Sutton, whose best years are far behind him). Dallas, the same (whose less bad, Kari Lehtonen or Andrew Raycroft?).

Playoffs
Washinton vs. Pittsburgh in the East
Canucks vs. Sharks in the West

Washington vs. Vancouver in the Finals
Washington winning

I know it's cheesy to pick your Conference Winners to play each other in the Finals, but that's why I picked them both #1 I guess. To be honest, I can completely see Vancouver stumbling in the playoffs, but they do have a very good team, and when Alex Burrows is back from injury in early-November, they'll be even better.

Enjoy the season, ladies & gentleman. Here's hoping the Islanders and Rangers both improve, both over last season and from the beginning of this one to the end.

Hart Trophy: Ilya Kovalchuk, NJ
Conn Smythe: Alex Ovechkin, WAS
Norris Trophy: Drew Doughty, LA
Vezina Trophy: Ryan Miller, Roberto Luongo, or Henrik Lundqvist (oh, hell, Martin Brodeur is probably going to be given it anyway)

Coming Tomorrow!...

Coming Tomorrow on The Rivalry!

* * Alex Ovechkin's return is imminent, and what better way to do it than against the Rangers! (See: Kovalchuk; Atlanta; 11/12/09)

* * Bryan thinks the Islanders might be "for real" this year. His prediction is 85 points, putting them exactly where I predicted in September: 10th place.

* * Matt Moulson is to 2009 fantasy hockey as Steve Slaton was to 2008 fantasy football: Best Waiver Wire Pickup of the Year.

* * Chris Drury and Brandon Dubinsky still not playing for the Rangers. Don't worry, even if they were, they wouldn't score.

* * Wade Redden returns to glory on the power play. (Webster's Dictionary defines glory as: "non-scoring, non-shooting, can't keep the puck in the zone, overpaid, and got Tom Renney fired." Weird.)

* * John Tortorella says Redden is "playing decent." Glen Sather agrees. Sather then states that "All decent players should received $6.5M for 6 years."

* * Blair Betts makes $600,000. Does more than Drury. Sather preemptively refuses to offer him a deal next year, saying "I will make mistakes, but I will never admit them." (See: Betts; Moore; Drury; Redden; Rozsival; Orr; Brashear)

* * The guy behind me at the Ranger games is constantly a dick to everyone. Will he yell at the large people I sold my tickets for tomorrow's game to? Will he live to tell about it? Why does he put a belt around his sweatpants and still think he's a tough guy?

Stay Tuned!

Dave Tippett Is The Greatest Coach In The History Of The 2009-10 Phoenix Coyotes

As soon as the Coyotes started out 2-0, you knew the media - the same media who has all but forfeited the team's games - would come out gushing over the Coyotes' "surprise start", right?

The Phoenix Coyotes could play their last home opener ever this weekend, what with the team in bankruptcy, the ownership situation unsettled and the possibility of relocation never all that far from the conversation about their future.

Relocation that, if you recall, requires a $750 million payment to the city of Glendale. Nice try, though.

If that wasn't bad enough, chances are the Coyotes -- a mix of minimally experienced young players, castoffs and a sprinkling of talented veterans -- will miss the playoffs for a seventh straight season while bringing up the rear in the Pacific Division, if not the entire league when all is said and done.

That's right, folks. The entire 2009-10 NHL season has already been played, and the Coyotes finished 30th out of 30 teams. But, like participants in a reality show, everyone has to act like it's all happening at the same time we see it on TV.

To call this a mess would be to understate the situation and how much it has consumed the organization at every level for the last five months. But for the time being at least, the off-ice problems seem to be on the back burner with Phoenix becoming one of the NHL's early pleasant surprises thanks to an impressive start that includes a well-earned road win against the reigning Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

Phoenix is 2-0. They've played exactly 2.439% of their schedule. Settle down.

Dave Tippett took over the job when Wayne Gretzky resigned a few days before the season opened. He replaced the game's greatest icon and stepped into circumstances where failure seemed more likely than not. Yet in the space of a couple of weeks, Tippett has managed to instill a level of structure and discipline that has made Phoenix's game virtually unrecognizable from last season, and certainly a lot more effective than anyone realistically could have imagined.

Let's try this again. THE COYOTES WEREN'T THAT BAD LAST YEAR. They were fifth in the West at the All-Star break. They probably would have made the playoffs if not for their horrible late January and February where they netted a total of six points from fifteen games. They were 23-15-3 at home - you know, the place everyone is trying to move the Coyotes from.

Oh, and at least someone realistically imagined the Coyotes playing well this year.

More so when you consider Tippett really didn't have to be there. A veteran coach widely respected for his teaching ability and no-nonsense approach to things, Tippett was fired unceremoniously by Dallas' new management in June after averaging more than 45 wins in six seasons and with two more seasons remaining on his contract. Someone with Tippett's pedigree could have waited for another opening, but instead he took what might be described as a leap of faith and has become a steadying force for a team that was in disarray.

A leap of faith is taking, say, the Devils job, knowing that Lou Lamoriello fires coaches like every week. But taking a job in a place with really nice weather, with absolutely no expectations, and when everyone has already written your team off as a horrible failure? That's a win-win situation. It's even better than taking a cushy TV analyst job.

[Tippett:] "I think the players have done a phenomenal job blocking out all the distractions and stuff that was in the media. Now it's up to us, and the big thing now is that we're playing and we can control things on the ice."

No, you can't. According to Wes Goldstein, you already missed the playoffs. If you already forgot, scroll up a few paragraphs.

"I had a feeling we were going to need a coach, and it was clear there was one guy for us," Maloney said. "Back then, Wayne also thought Dave would be right for this. He's got a quiet strength to him, and knowing what our team looked like, we thought he was a perfect fit."

This is bullcrap. If Gretzky or Ulf Samuelsson was coaching this team and they won their first two games, Don "We Got The Better Lindros" Maloney would be singing their praises ad nauseum. In addition, I have no idea what "quiet strength" has to do with anything.

So far, he has been.

Perhaps we should wait until Dave Tippett hits the 2.440% mark on this season before calling him a "perfect fit" for anything.

Predictions...

Okay, I'll do them. I'll do some predictions for next year, if only so I can do my yearly look back at preseason predictions to see how good everyone did. For the record, out of 6 last year, I came in 6th, and Isles' Writer Bryan came in 2nd place.

So.

East
1. Washington
2. Boston
3. Pittsburgh
4. Carolina
5. Rangers
6. Philly
7. Devils
8. Atlanta
9. Montreal
10. Ottawa
11. Islanders
12. Toronto
13. Tampa Bay
14. Buffalo
15. Florida

Notes: Let's start with the hometown boys - Why the Rangers over the Flyers? Simple: goaltending. Who would you rather have, 3-time Vezina finalist Henrik Lundqvist or NHL-castaway Ray Emery and career-backup Brian Boucher? Plus, I think Matt Gilroy and Mike Del Zotto can add a lot while limited Michal Rozsival and Wade Redden on the power play can only help. I also think Ales Kotalik and Vinny Prospal are nice compliments to Marian Gaborik, one of the best in the league when healthy (13-10-23 in 17 games last year).

The Islanders? Either way you slice it, Dwayne Roloson and Marty Biron are a solid 1-1A combo. Johnny Tavares is better than people are letting on. Rob Schremp was almost traded to the Isles for a 2nd round pick at the draft and they just got him for nothing. Mark Streit is excellent. Going to be a good team. Playoffs are a stretch, but I had them bordering at 10th or 11th.

Other Teams: NJ can never be counted out; Montreal improved but not that much. Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta were magical one season. Only one season; Tim Thomas and Zdeno Chara can lead you to the top of the conference when you're in a weak division, but then what?; Eric Staal is going to be a monster this year in Carolina; Atlanta! Bryan Little centering Ilya Kovalchuk and Nik Antropov is going to be a sick line; and Florida in 15th because their best player hates the team (Nathan Horton) and the 4,000 fans at every game can't put them in good spirits.

West
1. San Jose
2. Calgary
3. Detroit
4. Chicago
5. Anaheim
6. Minnesota
7. Columbus
8. Dallas
9. Vancouver
10. St. Louis
11. Phoenix
12. Nashville
13. Edmonton
14. LA
15. Colorado

Notes: What has Colorado done to improve themselves from being a lottery pick? David Koci and Craig Anderson? No way. Anderson is good but can't carry a team on his shoulders; I see nothing in Vancouver while others are predicting them to win the Cup. Roberto Luongo gave up SEVEN GOALS with the season on the line last year. And when your 2 biggest acquistions are a player once part of a 4-player package for Alex Kovalev (Mikael Samuelsson) and a goalie even Colorado didn't want (Andrew Raycroft), you aren't going far; Phoenix might be a mess, but they made a few good moves and have a great goalie in Ilya Bryzgalov to fall back on. Plus, Kyle Turris should come into his own this year; Detroit is setting up for a 1st round exit this year but again will dominate in the regular season; LA should actually be good and could surprise, if Dustin Brown bounces back from an awful year and if Jack Johnson plays as good as he could, but they have no goaltending, do they?; Anaheim and San Jose should beat each other senseless in the regular season and if they meet in the Conference Finals, we're in for a treat (the way I have it worked out, they'll meet in the 2nd round and it will be brutal); Minnesota's new system and new coach should help them into the playoffs. Plus, Brent Burns, Marek Zidlicky, and Martin Havlat are in for huge years without the trap to hold them down.

If it all shakes down as it should, I have the Sharks over the Penguins for the 2010 Stanley Cup. Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley are going to be unstoppable together. Danny Boyle and Rob Blake are going to be a great tandem, and Evgeni Nabokov will slam the door shut in goal.

Bryan's 2009-10 NHL Predictions

Generally speaking, most hockey pundits follow the same formula when it comes to doing season previews. Usually, they give you a bunch of crap you don't really care about as the season nears, then release their picks for the playoffs, the Stanley Cup and the post-season awards on the day of the first game. Of course, they don't do this for your benefit. They do it because that's the day everyone else puts out their predictions.

See, the earlier someone releases his or her predictions, the more that person or publication gets scrutinized and bashed, and nobody really wants that. Because in the end, predictions are just more mindless blather from people who don't really know anything. They're entertainment at best, and the sooner you forget about them, the happier major publications are. When ESPN did its NFL predictions, 75 percent of their "experts" had the same exact playoff teams in the AFC, five of which made the playoffs last year, and that's in a sport where at least three teams from each conference come from out of nowhere to make the playoffs. So you can only imagine what they, and everyone else, have in store for us on October 1.

Personally, I'd love to blend in with the rest of the opining masses and put out my picks with everyone else. Unfortunately, I can't do that. My wife is due to give birth on October 10 and I sort of need to be ready for that, so I can't just submit my picks at the last minute. Besides, I genuinely enjoy making predictions, even if they're horribly wrong. Remember, I'm the same person who had Barry Melrose winning the Adams last year.

Last year, I stumbled onto what I thought was a winning formula. I took last year's standings and simply figured out who would be better or worse than they were a year ago. This year, I'm taking it one step further by giving point totals for how much better or worse I think each team will be. While these revised point totals are not meant to be taken very literally, they're a decent guide for how much teams have improved (or gotten worse) without worrying about playoff positioning.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Boston (116): Same. The Bruins' loss to Carolina in Game 7 will end up being a blessing in disguise. The pain of defeat will help the Bruins to maintain their focus throughout this season.

2) Washington (108): +5. Not unlike the Bruins, the Capitals have plenty to prove. The Southeast division crown is a given, but the Caps should really be aiming for the President's Trophy.

3) New Jersey (106): Same. Every year, everyone writes the Devils off. Every year, the Devils make the playoffs. Until they falter, I have no reason to doubt they'll be great once again.

4) Pittsburgh (99): +6. The Penguins played like crap until it mattered last year, then proceeded to win the Cup. They might have a bit of a Cup hangover, but they should still hit 100 points.

5) Philadelphia (99): -4. Yes, the Flyers have Chris Pronger. No, they do not have a reliable goaltender for the playoffs. AGAIN.

6) Carolina (97): -10. Carolina went on an insane run to get into last year's playoffs and had a tremendous run once they got in. I can't see them doing it again, though.

7) NY Rangers (95): Same. Many are picking an off year for the Rangers, which can only mean that they will be very good. At any rate, it's hard to say this Rangers team is worse than it was a year ago. Even if they are, Henrik Lundqvist will keep them afloat.

8) Montreal (93): +4. Last year was a disaster. I blame the hoopla over the Habs' 100th anniversary. They should be improved, if only because there will be slightly less chaos surrounding the Canadiens.

9) Florida (93): -6. Last year was their chance. They just barely missed it. Now they have to work on getting Florida to care about hockey again, only they have to do it without Jay Bouwmeester. Good luck with that.

10) Buffalo (91): Same. It's hard to get excited about a team that considers giving Tim Connolly a lucrative extension a step in the right direction. They seem destined to be a bubble team for the forseeable future.

11) Ottawa (83): +10. The Senators will surely improve now that the Dany Heatley fiasco is over. Besides, they're not that bad. Lastly, for all Heatley did to villify Cory Clouston, the Sens managed 42 points in the 34 games Clouston coached. That's a 101-point pace.

12) Toronto (81): +5. This might come as a shock to Maple Leafs fans, but Mike Komisarek and his two goals in 2008-09 are not the answer. Nor is Colton Orr's 4-year contract or any of the other moves Brian Burke made in the name of toughness.

13) Atlanta (76): Same. The Thrashers will try to make something happen this year, if only because it's their only shot at getting Ilya Kovalchuk to re-sign. Look for him to be dumped at the trade deadline for about 70 cents on the dollar.

14) Tampa Bay (66): +9. It's hard to have a worse season than the Lightning did last year. They should be much improved this year now that Steven Stamkos knows the NHL. Matt Lashoff and Victor Hedman should significantly improve the Lightning's defense.

15) NY Islanders (61): +16. The Isles make the biggest jump for a number of reasons. They have actual NHL goalies, they can't possibly have as many injuries as they had last year, and their young players will improve.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose (117): -5. Does San Jose finally understand that the regular season is merely a dress rehearsal for what's really important? Probably not. But 117 points is a lot of points. I don't see them getting quite that many.

2) Detroit (112): -14. Detroit takes a big step back in terms of points, but they'll still be a factor in the playoffs. They've got too tough of a division to put up 112 points again.

3) Vancouver (100): -4. Now that the Canucks have tied up their future in the Sedin twins, they have a long future ahead of being above-average, but never truly great. Did you know that their sweep of the Blues in April was their first sweep in franchise history? Wow.

4) Chicago (104): +4. Chicago finishes the job after a dream season last year. There's a chance the team has a bout of complacency during the season, but they should be able to win the Central.

5) Calgary (98): -6. Calgary over-achieved last year. Brent Sutter is an upgrade behind the bench over Mike Keenan, but that doesn't change the fact that Miikaa Kiprusoff is the most overrated player in the NHL.

6) St. Louis (92): Same. It was tempting to give the Blues a significant bump in points, but they won't sneak up on anyone this year. That said, they'll be even better than they were last year, so at worst these two factors will cancel each other out.

7) Columbus (92): +3. The Blue Jackets are for real. They held their own last year in a very tough division. They'll only improve with a full season from Derick Brassard.

8) Anaheim (91) +9: The Ducks proved how much the regular season means when they whooped San jose in the first round last year. This year, they should be a lot more focused. They won't be stuck with the eighth seed next April.

9) Minnesota (89): -5. Everyone's all excited that the Wild isn't going to be playing the trap anymore. However, the change from all-defense to all-offense isn't going to happen overnight. This looks to be a transitional year for the Wild.

10) Nashville (88): Same. I keep waiting for the year where Nashville puts it all together. Still waiting. Will still be waiting after this year. The Predators' big acquisition this off-season was Francis Bouillon. Poor Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne.

11) Edmonton (85): +10. Last year, I predicted an off year for Edmonton because they wouldn't pick up a ton of points in shootouts two years in a row. This year, though, the young players are ready to put it all together.

12) Dallas (83): +7. Dallas improved significantly last year after dumping Sean Avery. Problem is, a lot of other teams improved too. I'll take up-and-coming young teams like LA and Edmonton over this Dallas team.

13) Phoenix (79): +9. People forget that the Coyotes were as high as fifth in the West last January before totally crapping out in the second half. The drama with the team's move may actually serve to bring the team together. And you can't deny their young talent, which might be the best group of prospects in the NHL.

14) Los Angeles (79): +11. Speaking of enviable pools of talent, the Kings should be a team to watch now that they have a legitimate franchise goalie in Jonathan Quick. They might not be a playoff team, but they'll be close.

15) Colorado (69): Same. The rebuild begins in Colorado without Joe Sakic. It's not going to be pretty.

****

So, if we do the math, here's how my vision of the NHL shakes out for 2009-10...

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Boston (116)

2) Washington (111)

3) New Jersey (106)

4) Pittsburgh (105)

5) Montreal (97)

6) NY Rangers (95)

7) Philadelphia (95)

8) Ottawa (93)

9) Buffalo (91)

10) Carolina (87)

11) Florida (87)

12) Toronto (86)

13) NY Islanders (77)

14) Atlanta (76)

15) Tampa Bay (75)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose (112)

2) Chicago (108)

3) Vancouver (96)

4) Anaheim (100)

5) Detroit (98)

6) Columbus (95)

7) Edmonton (95)

8) St. Louis (92)

9) Calgary (92)

10) Los Angeles (90)

11) Dallas (90)

12) Phoenix (88)

13) Nashville (88)

14) Minnesota (84)

15) Colorado (69)

PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Boston def. (8) Ottawa 4-2

(2) Washington def. (7) Philadelphia 4-0

(6) NY Rangers def. (3) New Jersey 4-3

(4) Pittsburgh def. (5) Montreal 4-1

(1) Boston def. (6) NY Rangers 4-2

(2) Washington def. (4) Pittsburgh 4-3

(2) Washington def. (1) Boston 4-1

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) San Jose def. (8) St. Louis 4-3

(2) Chicago def. (7) Edmonton 4-0

(6) Columbus def. (3) Vancouver 4-2

(5) Detroit def. (4) Anaheim 4-3

(1) San Jose def. (6) Columbus 4-3

(2) Chicago def. (5) Detroit 4-1

(2) Chicago def. (1) San Jose 4-2

STANLEY CUP FINAL

(2) Washington def. (2) Chicago 4-2

INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Hart Trophy: Zach Parise, New Jersey

Art Ross Trophy: Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh

Richard Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington

Vezina Trophy: Henrik Lundqvist, NY Rangers

Norris Trophy: Dan Boyle, San Jose

Calder Trophy: Nikita Filatov, Columbus

Adams Trophy: Dave Tippett, Phoenix

Selke Trophy: Mike Richards, Philadelphia

Conn Smythe Trophy: Alexander Semin, Washington

NHL Awards Predictions

We've been a little light on the coverage lately, and I suppose it's pretty understandable. The Rangers have been on the golf course for the past two months. The Islanders have been preparing for the draft for the past, oh, forever or so, but Botta has the draft covered so well it doesn't even make sense to detract from that. So it's been a quiet time in the New York hockey scene, to state the obvious.

Fortunately, the NHL Awards show is coming up tonight. While I have no interest in actually watching the show - I can hardly think of something more boring than watching a group of wooden personalities congregate in a large banquet hall - the awards themselves are a blast to debate. I love everything about the NHL awards, from their antequated names to the diverse array of hockey prowess they measure. Reading the predictions of others is always fun, or at least it is until the awards are narrowed down to three finalists, at which time the winner becomes somewhat predictable.

So we're going to have fun with this. Just like we did at the middle of the season, we'll tell you who we're predicting to win - and who would actually win in a perfect world. Remember, the NHL awards are supposed to represent the regular season only. We'll be sure to keep that in mind. We can't say the same about the actual voters.

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Hart Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: The highest-scoring player on a media-friendly East Coast team.

- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh), Alexander Ovechkin (Washington).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Zach Parise (New Jersey).

- Who Should Win: Ovechkin.

- Who Will Win: Ovechkin. Malkin will get far more consideration than he should, as everybody will forget that Pittsburgh spent about three-fourths of the season either out of the playoff picture or just barely hanging onto the eighth spot. Meanwhile, the Caps were great whenever Ovechkin played and were horrendous in October, when Ovechkin missed some time. Datsyuk would never have a prayer of winning an award where Ovechkin and Malkin are both nominated.

Vezina Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: Martin Brodeur. Whether he had a good season or not.

- Nominees: Niklas Backstrom (Minnesota), Steve Mason (Columbus), Tim Thomas (Boston).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers).

- Who Should Win: Thomas

- Who Will Win: Mason. For some reason, it seems like rookies have a better shot at the Vezina than any other individual trophy. And Mason had a truly phenomenal season. However, this is a group where each finalist is flawed. Backstrom and Mason play in defense-heavy systems, while Thomas split time with Manny Fernandez for much of the season. My gut feeling is that the voters will let it slide with Mason and will hold Thomas' low number of games played against him, even though goalies won the Vezina with even less games played one generation ago. Thomas, however, held it down on a team that was second in the league in scoring, truly a remarkable achievement.

Norris Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: An offense-heavy defenseman from a good team.

- Nominees: Zdeno Chara (Boston), Mike Green (Washington), Nicklas Lidstrom (Detroit).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Mark Streit (New York Islanders).

- Who Should Win: Green.

- Who Will Win: Green. Even if some of us detest the Norris becoming an offense-first award, it's hard to ignore Green's numbers and his solid play at his own end. Lidstrom has won this award for the past 50 or so years and it's time to see someone else take the Norris. Some, including notorious Bruins homer Jack Edwards, have championed Chara's cause, and he has certainly had a Norris-caliber year. That said, when Chara has 73 points in a season, he can win this trophy.

Calder Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: The league's best rookie... provided he's a "name" and had impressive numbers.

- Nominees: Steve Mason (Columbus), Bobby Ryan (Anaheim), Kris Versteeg (Chicago).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Cal Clutterbuck (Minnesota).

- Who Should Win: Ryan.

- Who Will Win: Mason. If Mason is a serious Vezina candidate, you can bet the Calder is his as well. Which is a shame, because Ryan should be the guy here. If Ryan had played a full season - and it's not his fault he didn't, as he wasn't called up until November - he'd have ended up with 80+ points; even out in Anaheim, those numbers would speak very loudly to voters. Versteeg had a great year as well, but his critics would say he had plenty of help in the high-scoring Blackhawks offense.

Lady Byng Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: A highly skilled offensive player who totally shies away from physical play.

- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Zach Parise (New Jersey), Martin St. Louis (Tampa Bay).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Like it matters.

- Who Should Win: St. Louis.

- Who Will Win: Datsyuk. He's the biggest name among these candidates. Since it doesn't really make much of a difference who wins, they usually go for the biggest name. I'd be more inclined to vote for St. Louis, who is as annoying of a little turd as you'll find in the NHL.

Selke Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: A solid defensive forward who also doubles as a top scorer.

- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Ryan Kesler (Vancouver), Mike Richards (Philadelphia).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: The Selke is like the Gold Glove or the NFL Pro Bowl - once you're on the ballot, you never come off. So let's say Jere Lehtinen, just for fun.

- Who Should Win: Richards.

- Who Will Win: Datsyuk. He seems like the perfect guy to win this award - skilled, yet fairly anonymous on defense. Really, though, Richards needs to win this award one of these years. He's too good to be denied. Most American journalists haven't seen enough of Kesler to give him the nod, which is a shame.

Adams Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: A first-year coach who turns a loser into a winner. Or a coach who has a super season with a perennial powerhouse.

- Nominees: Claude Julien (Boston), Todd McLellan (San Jose), Andy Murray (St. Louis).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Dan Bylsma (Pittsburgh).

- Who Should Win: Julien.

- Who Will Win: Julien. If it's possible to vote against a coach whose team was the second-best offensive team while allowing the fewest goals in the entire league, I'd love to hear the reason. Murray had a tremendous year in St. Louis, but it doesn't compare to the job Julien did with the Bruins. And as much as the Adams is supposed to represent the regular season, it's impossible to separate McLellan's 117 regular season points and his team's latest playoff choke job. A bit unfair, but that's life.

Masterson Trophy

- Who Usually Wins: The player who suffered the most grotesque injury the prior year and came back to play.

- Nominees: Chris Chelios (Detroit), Steve Sullivan (Nashville), Richard Zednik (Florida).

- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Anybody who watched all 82 games of Islanders hockey this season.

- Who Should Win: Chelios.

- Who Will Win: Zednik. It's hard to vote against a guy who had his throat slit open and came back for more. But Chelios, the Ric Flair of the NHL, keeps coming back to work with the young guys in Detroit even though he's routinely scratched for playoff games. Do you realize Chelios was drafted twenty-nine years ago? That's insane.

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Funny story - before I was able to finish this post, the awards show actually started! So far, I was right about Datsyuk winning the Selke and Mason winning the Calder, but I missed out on Steve Sullivan winning the Masterson. He missed two years with a back injury and came back to play in Nashville, of all places, so he certainly deserves this one.

EDIT: Now that it's all over, let's see how I did...

- Hart: Correct on both accounts

- Vezina: My pick was correct, my prediction was incorrect

- Norris: Wrong on both accounts

- Calder: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct

- Lady Byng: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct

- Selke: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct

- Adams: Correct on both accounts

- Masterson: Wrong on both accounts

So that makes five of eight predictions in terms of picking how the "experts" would vote. Not so good. And I seriously only got four right? Jeez.

By the way, if you're looking for media bias - and I personally love to do this - there were four winners from the East Coast (three from Boston, one from Washington), two Red Wings, one from Columbus, and one from Nashville. Yeah, the winning players came from good teams. But if you'd rather cry conspiracy or East Coast Bias... you might not be far off.

Playoff Bet Update, Finals...

An update on the playoff bet: If the Penguins win tomorrow, I will have ended with 12 points, ahead of Bryan's 10. If Detroit wins, I will end with 10, and he with 8. (We both thought Pittsburgh would do it in 6 games.)

Regardless, I am crowned Playoff Prediction Champion. A glamorous title, indeed. However, unlike Miss California, I will not be fired and I will not tell you my views on gay marriage. I will tell you, however, that I thought a movie on gay marriage, I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry, was awful and predictable, and I wish it wasn't made.

Anyway, as per terms of the bet, Bryan owes $100. Originally, I wanted the money to be given to the Garden of Dreams, since this is a hockey site, after all.

I have since changed my mind. Let James Dolan donate to the Garden of Dreams.

Bryan, please make your echeck payable to Best Friends Animal Sanctuary, a group out in Utah that houses 2,000 homeless dogs, cats, horses, pigs, burrows, rabbits, etc. They also work with animal shelters all across the country and they helped rescue stray dogs on the streets of New Orleans after Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav.

In the spirit of gamesmanship, I will be matching your gift with a donation to the Freeport Animal Shelter (in particular, my favorite dog there, Cinderella), in Freeport, Long Island, which just received 17 dogs from Hurricane Gustav that were going to be euthanised in shelters down south to make room for new lost dogs this hurricane season.

Ah, now only if Wade Redden could give away 90% of the $6.5M my season tickets go towards. I wouldn't feel so angry about him eating up that much Cap room if he gave the animals all of his money.

Enjoy your Game 7 tomorrow. For a while there, we had a string of Game 7's. There were 4 of 5 since 2001 until the past 2 years. Always exciting knowing the Stanley Cup will be awarded but not knowing to whom. (Am I grammatically correct there?)

Bryan's (Late) Finals Prediction

I haven't posted to this blog in a while. It's the longest I've gone since posting since we started this thing some fifteen months ago. For this, you can thank the atrocious third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I know it wasn't really as bad as it seemed; after all, the Red Wings-Blackhawks series featured three overtime games. Truth be told, we were spoiled by a tremendous second round of playoff hockey. Nothing could have possibly topped that and, thankfully, none of the four teams involved bothered to try. We're in luck, though; if last year's Stanley Cup Final was any indication, we're in for a treat with this series.

Real quick, a word on the start of the Cup Final before my prediction. The NHL is perhaps the most oft-criticized league in all of professional sports, and we saw more examples of this as the conference finals drew to a close. Faced with the potential of a nine-day gap between rounds, the NHL bumped up its schedule a week, creating a much more manageable two-day gap. Of course, this invited media pundits to trash the NHL for kowtowing to NBC's scheduling whims.

What a load of crap. Yeah, NBC has control over the schedule. That's because they're essentially doing the NHL a favor by airing these playoff games on weeknights in June, when all their shows are in re-runs. NBC isn't paying a dime to air the Stanley Cup Finals. Instead, they're showcasing the shows that they're paying millions of dollars to produce. It's part of the way the game is played. But it beats the alternative of a deciding game being played on Versus - you can only imagine what people would be saying in that scenario.

As a hockey fan, I'm outraged that NBC thinks Conan O'Brien's new show is more important than the league I worship. At the same time, I have to give both NBC and the NHL a hand, because no other league would even dream of doing this. The NFL? They had initially taken away the extra week of Super Bowl hype, instead opting to air the Super Bowl the week after the conference championship games. They brought back that hype week just to get extra publicity - at the expense of the players' routines and preparation. The NBA promotes the start date of its' NBA Finals from the start of the playoffs and would never change it, lest they be accused of misleading its audience. As if casual fans circle the date of Game 1 of the NBA Finals and don't watch a second of playoff basketball until that date. And we all know how Major League Baseball feels about TV revenue, electing to start playoff games at Fox at 8:30* and ensuring that kids nationwide can't stay up to see the end of the season's most important games. 

* - I know MLB/Fox is currently making a huge deal about how they're going to be starting games before 8 PM for the first time in forever. What they don't tell you, though, is that these games will begin at 7:58 PM. And with pre-game ceremonies and all the usual World Series hoopla, I'll believe it when I see it.

That leaves the NHL - the same league that aired two Game 7s virtually simultaneously in both the first and second round so as not to put out the fans who paid good money for their tickets. They were much criticized for this as well; of course, most of the people doing the bashing are the same people who complain about the NFL's flex schedule and the TV-mandated late starting times of World Series and NBA Finals games. People should give the NHL credit for putting its fans first and capitalizing on an opportunity to serve its fans (and teams) better, instead of kissing the asses of TV executives like every other league does.

Anyway.

We have Detroit and Pittsburgh meeting in the Finals for the second straight year. Detroit is already up 1-0. For the purposes of the bet between Zach and myself, the best I can possibly do is tie. To accomplish this, I'd have to pick Detroit and not only be correct in the Red Wings winning, but also nail the correct number of games. If I pick Pittsburgh, I can't win no matter what.

So, what do I do? Pick Pittsburgh anyway. Pittsburgh in 6.

As they stand right now, the Red Wings remind me of the Devils teams of the past few years - just when you write them off, they find a new way to win. They're currently battling some serious injuries. Nicklas Lidstrom missed time against Chicago. Pavel Datsyuk didn't play last night and is out again tonight. How do they keep winning? Honestly, I have no idea. Common sense would dictate that they'll find a way to prevail in this series.

However, think about it. Can you even imagine a team losing to the same team in the finals two years in a row? Yes, I know the Buffalo Bills lost the Super Bowl to the Dallas Cowboys in consecutive years. But those are the Buffalo Bills. The Penguins won't be denied twice. Even though they lost last night, they have more skill than the Red Wings. Both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have shown they can take over games when necessary, and they're getting great play from guys like Ruslan Fedotenko and Bill Guerin. Plus, as great as Chris Osgood has been over his career, right now I trust Marc-Andre Fleury a little bit more.

So, Penguins in six. That means I lose the bet. It also means the Pens have to win four games out of the next five to advance. I think they can do it. Honestly, I was going to pick them to win in seven. But that'd mean they would be winning the Cup on the road, and there's something that's just not right about winning it on the road. They need to be at home when they hoist the Cup. I hope it works out for them.

Playoff Bet Update, Third Round...

The $100 playoff bet that Bryan and I made is in full swing going into the Finals. I am ahead 10-8 with one round left.

To recap, you get a point for successfully picking the team who wins the series; another point if you guess it in the correct number of games; and another point if it is an upset win.

Since neither Pittsburgh or Detroit were underdogs, no "upset points" were given out. And since both me and Bryan had the same picks (Penguins and Blackhawks, both in 6), we received the same amount of points, obviously (one point).

He had 7 in round 1, 0 in round 2, and 1 in round 3. I had 6-3-1.

So, my pick for the Finals is Penguins in 6. In fact, in every single round this year, I have had "Penguins in 6" as my choice. I actually only picked Detroit to win once, in the 2nd round against Anaheim, although I knew they were going to beat Columbus in Round 1, but I wanted to get upset points if they lost.

Regardless, this should be a good series. Better than the 3rd round, no doubt, and even better than last year. Last year, the Penguins were good but definitely beatable - the Rangers could have beaten them, and since Montreal was out, there was no other strong team in the East.

That said, Game 5 of last year's series, the triple overtime game where Petr Sykora scored the game-winner, was one of the best, if not the best non-Rangers game I have ever seen.

I'm looking forward to this series. TiVo has been put on notice.

Bryan's Conference Finals Picks

So I went 0-for-4 in the second round. I suck. But hey, at least I had Pittsburgh-Washington and Boston-Carolina going seven. As they say, though, you don't get points for coming close. 

Time's running out. I need to pull off some big wins in this round or else I'm screwed. With that in mind, here are my picks for the conference finals.

Eastern Conference

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (6) Carolina - Pittsburgh in 6

The more I think about these teams, the more similar they become. So far, Pittsburgh has defeated a physical Flyers team and an offense-heavy Capitals team. They've shown they can play in any number of ways. Carolina, on the other hand, has defeated the defense-first Devils and the all-around brilliant Bruins. They, too, have had to adapt their style to win. This should be a great series featuring two well-rounded teams, not to mention two goaltenders who have been stellar so far. Both teams have plenty of recent playoff experience. Now, having said all of that, even though I like Ward better than Fleury, I'm going with Pittsburgh. Sidney Crosby played at a ridiculously high level during the Capitals series and should be able to keep up his momentum against the Hurricanes. The Penguins have more talent and should be able to win this highly competitive series... but the Hurricanes have pulled wins out of nowhere a couple of times in these playoffs. I won't be surprised if they win. In the end, you know Gary Bettman and NBC will ensure that the Penguins advance.

Western Conference

(2) Detroit vs. (4) Chicago - Chicago in 6

Yes, I know the Red Wings are the defending Stanley Cup Champions. But did you see Chicago against the Canucks? They made Roberto Luongo look mortal; hell, they made him look awful. Experience might win a lot of battles, but don't underestimate youthful exuberance, particularly when it comes to the fans. There were empty seats at the Joe Louis Arena at Game 7 against Anaheim, partially because of the economy, partially because Red Wings fans are trained to expect a Stanley Cup every year. The United Center, on the other hand, has been absolutely boisterous. The playoffs are new to Blackhawks fans, and they're having the time of their lives during this playoff run. Let's not forget the obvious - these Blackhawks can score, Chris Osgood hasn't been great this year, and Nikolai Khabibulin is capable of stealing a game if he has to. Detroit will definitely play well in this series, but it just seems like a series Chicago is capable of winning.

Playoff Bet Update; Boston Commentary...

Well, first, an update on the playoff prediction bet between Bryan and myself.

He scored 0 points this round, much like I did last year in the 2nd round. He incorrectly chose Boston vs. Washington and Anaheim vs. Vancouver in the Conference Finals. Disappointing.

I scored 3 points, 2 for guessing Pittsburgh over Washington (1 point for the win, 1 because it was an upset), and 1 for Detroit over Anaheim.

My picks for next round? Pittsburgh in 6. Chicago in 6.

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Two stats I heard that I thought were interesting...

- Carolina's last 4 playoff rounds went 7 games (Buffalo, Edmonton in '06; Devils, Bruins in '09). Cam Ward, for the record, is obviously 4-0 in those games.

- This was the 1st time since 2001 that 3 out of the 4 second round series went to 7 games, and it tied the 1986 record of 27 games in that round.

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The Bruins had a dream season, and I would like to offer congratualtions to the 12,000 faithful fans who went to the games when they were on the playoff-bubble to past few years. To everyone else, well, you seemed to hop on the bandwagon at the right moment. Nice timing!

It's Prediction Thursday!...

For the third time today, we will have a prediction themed post on this website. I guess that's what happens when both of your teams have officially emptied their respective lockers and have held exit interviews.

Based on my poor showing in my 2008-09 predictions, you should not put much stock into what I say. Also take into effect that last year, I predicted Montreal, the Rangers, Colorado, and San Jose to win the 2nd round and go into the Conference Finals. The correct winners were Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Dallas. Much like David Wright, I was 0-for-4.

Keep in mind that Game 1 of Vancouver/Chicago is in the books

Boston over Carolina in 5
Pittsburgh over Washington in 6
Detroit over Anaheim in 6
Vancouver over Chicago in 6

I hope I'm not selling Anaheim short again. I heard Gary Bettman's erection has not gone down since the Hurricanes beat the Devils to force a Penguins/Capitals series. I also hope that the officials go easy in said series. You know they're going to referee it so that it goes to 7 games, or atleast try to. And Pittsburgh will win, of course, because Gary Bettman said so.

Bryan's Playoff Predictions - Conference Semifinals

You may recall that, prior to the first round of the playoffs, Zach and I made our predictions for the conference quarterfinals. How did we do? Let's find out. Our scoring system is as follows: one point for the correct team, one point for the correct number of games, and one point for correctly picking an upset. And, once again, the loser of the playoff prediction game will donate $100 to charity.

 - Zach: Boston over Montreal in 5 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), New Jersey over Carolina in 6 (0), Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 6 (2), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Columbus over Detroit in 6 (0), Vancouver over St. Louis in 4 (2), Chicago over Calgary in 5 (1). Total: 6 points.

 - Bryan: Boston over Montreal in 6 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), Carolina over New Jersey in 6 (2), Philadelphia over Pittsburgh in 7 (0), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Detroit over Columbus in 6 (1), Vancouver over St. Louis in 7 (1), Chicago over Calgary in 6 (2). Total: 7 points.

OK, so we didn't have great showings in Round One. In my defense, I actually picked Washington over the Rangers in 7 in our sidebar poll before the playoffs began, but talked myself into the Rangers when it came time for actual predictions. Whoops.

Anyway, without further adieu, here are my picks for the second round. We'll be employing the same scoring system as the first round.

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston vs. (6) Carolina - Boston in 7

This series will not be the walkover the Bruins-Canadiens series was. The main difference is that Carolina has a hot goalie in Cam Ward who has already won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy. They also have Eric Staal, who is becoming more and more clutch by the day. Lastly, Carolina has momentum on their side, while the Bruins have been resting for a week. However, Boston has a more talented team than Carolina and it will show as this series unfolds. Carolina will win at least one of the first two games, probably the first one, and should be 2-2 after four games. Which is wonderful, except that it takes four wins to take the series, and with two of the final three in Boston, the Bruins should prevail.

(2) Washington vs. (4) Pittsburgh - Washington in 7

I'm going with Washington for three main reasons. First, against the Rangers, they proved they can play a physical series and win. Second, they made Henrik Lundqvist look mortal. Third, and most importantly, they have a red-hot young goalie named Simeon Varlamov. Is it foolish to put so much stock into a 21-year-old goalie? Not at all. He's not going to be overwhelmed by the pressure of the playoffs, nobody knows anything about him, he's got tons of momentum, and he's playing ridiculously well. Sure, it's not hard to hold the offensively inept Rangers to under two goals a game, but he also made the big saves when the Capitals needed him to. Having said all that, it won't be easy against a Penguins team that played a similarly physical series against Philadelphia. The real winners in this series, though, are the NHL and Versus - especially if this series goes seven games.

Western Conference

(2) Detroit vs. (8) Anaheim - Anaheim in 6

Yes, I am aware that I picked Anaheim to get swept in the first round. Why, then, would Anaheim beat the Detroit Red Wings in the second round? Well, it's more of a hunch than anything else. But again, goaltending is key. Strange as it is to say, I trust Jonas Hiller more than I trust Chris Osgood. Besides, the Red Wings haven't played since last Thursday. Since then, the Ducks beat San Jose twice and forced overtime in a third game. Even though Detroit swept Columbus in convincing fashion, it's hard to make the argument that Detroit is playing better than Anaheim right now. At worst, they're even. But if you consider that Anaheim is riding high after beating the Sharks in a series that just ended on Monday, things look a little bit different. Hence, I'm taking the Ducks in an upset.

(3) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago - Vancouver in 7

For the third time in the four second-round series, I'll fall back on the old playoff adage - when in doubt, look at the goaltending matchups. Nikolai Khabibulin has won a Stanley Cup and has played well so far for the Blackhawks. But Roberto Luongo is one of the game's truly elite talents and should be able to play his best hockey in the playoffs, having missed a portion of the regular season. Besides, even though Luongo has played well in the playoffs in his young playoff career, he hasn't had that huge run that makes the great goalies even greater. The Blackhawks are no joke, though, and they'll make Luongo's job all the more difficult. I'd say the Blackhawks are significantly better on offense, but the goalies make all the difference in the playoffs. That's why the Canucks will be slightly better than a fine Chicago team.

How Good Are Predictions, Part II...

Each year, I write down a bunch of predictions from "industry experts," just to see how close they are. I also write down mine to compare. Last September, I posted the results on this page. I figured that we have some off-days now between playoff rounds, and since both local teams (and even the Devils) are out, why not do this post now as opposed to September.

Last year, for the record, ESPN, Newsday's Steve Zipay, and I all had 24 points. The big winner was Dwayne Kessel, aka "Eklund," from some Internet site that spouts "rumors," with 27 points.

This year, the combatants are once again Eklund, and myself. Joining the mix are Newsday's Mark Herrman, Sports Illustrated, and our Islanders' writer Bryan. Representing a once-anonymous ESPN will be E.J. Hradek.

(Scoring: 1 point for having a team correctly missing or making the playoffs; 2 points for predicting their exact position in the Conference.)

6th Place
I am sadly bringing up the rear on this campaign. A few gambles that I took (Tampa Bay winning the Southeast, Devils missing the playoffs, Colorado winning the Northwest, Edmonton and Phoenix making the playoffs) didn't exactly pan out. In fact, of 30 positions in the NHL, the only one I hit on the nose was Minnesota at 9th in the West. Sad, sad, sad predicting. I even had the Islanders coming in 14th in the East, ahead of Atlanta. I actually only predicted 1 division winner (Detroit, 1st in the West). It also appears my Dallas versus either Montreal or the Rangers in the Finals won't happen. In fact, I even said that Sean Avery would be sipping from the Stanley Cup this June.
19 points

5th Place
I shouldn't feel so bad, though. E.J. Hradek, who works for ESPN and hosts NHL Live on XM and the NHL Network, only beat me by 3 points. He only predicted 2 division winners (Red Wings and Capitals). The also picked the Devils to miss the playoffs, as well as Boston, both of whom won their division. He predicted Edmonton to win the Northwest. I still think my Colorado prediction was better! His bold prediction of Detroit over Pittsburgh in the Finals still can happen, though.
23 points

4th Place
Newcomer Mark Herrman, subbing for Zipay this year, ended in 4th. He nailed the Rangers in 7th, but that's about it. He picked 3 division winners, all in the wrong order (Washington, Detroit, San Jose). Dallas winning the Pacific instead of San Jose was his downfall. His Detroit prediction for the Cup Finals looks good, but Montreal will not be joining them. Better luck next year.
23 points

3rd Place
The bronze medal goes to an anonymous person at Sports Illustrated, who nailed 3 spots dead-on (Atlanta, 13th; Islanders, 15th; Nashville, 10th). They predicted 2 divison winners (Washington, Detroit), but 2 of their choices for the division didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Dallas). SI did correctly choose 7 of 8 Eastern conference playoff teams, a feat only duplicated by Bryan. Their folly: Ottawa at 8th, Carolina at 9th.
26 points

2nd Place
Our own Bryan had a very strong showing, hitting 5 spots correctly (Capitals, 2nd; Philadelphia, 5th; Atlanta, 13th; his beloved Islanders, 15th; Edmonton, 11th in West). He had 4 division winners. His two misses: Penguins to win the Atlantic and Calgary to win the Northwest. His only East playoff team to miss was Tampa Bay, whom he predicted to come in 7th. They ended 14th, and his 14th team, Carolina, came in 6th. Not bad for a rookie, although his Finals prediction of San Jose hoisting the Cup at Madison Square Garden will not happen. Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.
27 points!

1st Place
It pains me, but that Eklund guy from that website again won our competition. His Eastern conference wasn't that great: his only 2-point play was Washington in 2nd, and he picked the Devils and Carolina to miss the playoffs while putting Ottawa and Buffalo in. But he made up for it in the West, correctly guessing the final positions of San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. He did pick Edmonton to win their division instead of Vancouver, but he was one of only two (with Hradek) to pick Vancouver in the playoffs. He also was the only person to think San Jose would win the West, as the other 5 of us picked Detroit 1st in the conference. However, his long-term thinking is off: Both the Habs and Sharks lost in the 1st round and will not meet up in June.
28 points

Terms of the Bet...

Bryan and I have made a bet regarding post-season predictions. The loser will have to donate $100 to charity. If I win, then Bryan will give his money to the Rangers' charity, Garden of Dreams. And if Islanders fan Bryan wins, I will donate my money the the Islanders' Children's Foundation.

- One point will be awarded if a series is correctly predicted.
- One additional point will be awarded if the winner is predicted as well as the correct number of games.
- One additional point will be awarded if the winner is predicted and it is an upset (lower-ranked team beating a higher-ranked team).

For example, if Detroit wins in 5, Bryan gets 1 point. If Detroit wins in 6, he gets 2. If Columbus wins in 5, I get 2 points, and if they win in 6 I get 3 points (one for the win, one for correct games, one for being an upset).

If I remember correctly, I got destroyed last year.

Here's hoping for a better post-season, for me and my team.

Bryan's Playoff Predictions

Another year, another Islanders-less post-season.

The one good thing about not having your team in the playoffs is that you really get to sit back and appreciate everything. Without a rooting interest, you can enjoy the games, the quality of play, the intensity of the competitors, and just about everything else that makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs the premier tournament in North American sports. It truly is an entirely different game than the regular season, and the results of the playoffs always show this. Teams never come from nowhere to win the Cup. It takes years of experience and failure to hoist the Stanley Cup. Those teams who appeared last year are wiser for their playoff battles; those who are new to the tournament have much to learn.

So, without further adieu, here are my predictions for the first round.

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal - Boston in 6

This is a rematch from the first round of last year's playoffs, only last year Montreal was the top seed in the East and Boston barely got in. And yet, the Bruins took the Habs to the brink, giving them all they wanted and then some. Will Montreal return the favor this year? It'll be an intense series, sure, but Boston is playing as well as they have all year and Montreal was fortunate just to make the playoffs. Boston will win what should be a very physical series.

(2) Washington vs. (7) NY Rangers - Rangers in 7

This is one of the more even 2-7 matchups in recent memory. The Rangers finished 15 points behind the Capitals, but played in a much tougher division and are peaking at the right time. The Capitals, meanwhile, are certainly a great team, but they'll need to play at a very high level to match the defense-first Rangers. Can they do it? It all depends on Sean Avery and Henrik Lundqvist. If Avery can get the likes of Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin off their respective games, the Rangers have more than a fighting chance. And if Lundqvist gets hot, watch out. Those two give the Rangers the nod over what is a far more talented Capitals team.

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Carolina - Carolina in 6

We all know how great Martin Brodeur is; the media hasn't stopped reminding us of that since Brodeur broke the wins record. But the truth is, this Devils team isn't all it's cracked up to be. They were pretty horrendous down the stretch against playoff teams, losing seven in a row before finally beating the Hurricanes in the final game of the season. But don't let that fool you. The Canes have their best possible matchup against the Devils, they had the best finish to the season of any team, and they have a red-hot Cam Ward in their net. Besides, the Devils always choke in the playoffs. Everybody knows that.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia - Philadelphia in 7

This series is not only NBC's wet dream, but it should also be the best series of the first round. The reason I'm going with Philadelphia is that Pittsburgh lost virtually all of its role players - Gary Roberts, Adam Hall, Mark Recchi, Jarkko Ruutu, etc. - and those players were the most valuable players in their Cup run last year. Philly's superstars can defend themselves for the most part, which goes a long way in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has been great under Dan Byslma, but Philadelphia seems like it's a better playoff team than Pittsburgh at this point in time.

Western Conference

(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim - San Jose in 4

The Sharks have heard all season about how nothing matters except for the playoffs. This is the year they finally start acting like it. They didn't bring in Claude Lemieux for the regular season, they brought him in to show the team how to win a Cup. It all starts here. Anaheim had a great run to make the playoffs after being sellers at the trade deadline, but it's hard to imagine them posing a serious threat to the Sharks.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus - Detroit in 6

Detroit always seems to have trouble with teams it should destroy in the first round. This should be no different, especially against a Blue Jackets team that has great goaltending. The BJs could be extremely dangerous in front of a rabid crowd that has waited nearly a decade for playoff hockey; with the right matchup, they easily could have stolen a round. As it is, though, they've drawn the Red Wings, and Detroit's skill will prevail in the end.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis - Vancouver in 7

I'm not sold on this Canucks team. At all. Roberto Luongo's numbers this season were barely better than those of Chris Mason. Mats Sundin has never won anything, nor has anyone else in Vancouver. But they've been to the playoffs before and that experience will help them against the Blues, a team nobody saw getting this far. No matter what, it's a win for St. Louis. Their young players will learn what playoff hockey is all about and will gain valuable experience for the future - but Vancouver will just barely squeak by.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary - Chicago in 6

It's hard to take Calgary seriously after they laid an egg down the stretch, and that's a shame, because this is a much better team than the one that nearly stole a round last year. Chicago will be buzzing in their first playoff appearance in years and their young stars will certainly rise to the challenge. Also, the Blackhawks have Nikolai "I Only Play Well In Contract Years" Khabibulin - and wouldn't you know it, he's playing for a contract next year.

If all of these scenarios play themselves out - and, of course, they won't - these are the second-round matchups we'd be left with:

East

 - (1) Boston vs. (7) NY Rangers

 - (5) Philadelphia vs. (6) Carolina

West

 - (1) San Jose vs. (4) Chicago

 - (2) Detroit vs. (3) Vancouver

Those would be some pretty awesome series. For now, though, enjoy the first round. And as for Zach's request to make it interesting... I'm sure we can work something out.

Playoff Predictions...

Since my predictions are generally not entirely correct, and since everyone, their mother, and their mother's father are doing predictions, I'll keep mine short and simple. I imagine Bryan will be doing some as well tonight or tomorrow, even though his beloved Islanders are now dearly beloved. Hey, Bryan, if you want to make things interesting, let me know.

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal - Boston in 5
- Say what you want about the "history" between the 2 teams in the playoffs, mostly how Montreal has won 24/31 playoff series (a fraction normally reserved for longer months on a calendar), but Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, and Tim Thomas weren't on the Bruins when the Habs were whooping them. And I don't see Maurice Richard, Patrick Roy, Ken Dryden, or Larry Robinson suiting up for the Canadiens, either.

(2) Washington vs. (7) Rangers - Rangers in 7
- Sticking with my prediction from the other day. Shut down Ovechkin, keep Green in control, and score a few goals. Henrik Lundqvist will outplay Jose Theodore any day of the week, and if the over-priced players on the Rangers actually play worth half of their contract, they can and will win.

(3) Devils vs. (6) Carolina - Devils in 6
- This is the least interesting series there is in the whole playoffs, besides maybe Vancouver vs. St. Louis. I vote the Devils, because this incarnation of the '06 Champs is 3 years older, slower, and doesn't have Doug Weight or Mark Recchi. Cam Ward is overrated, as well.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia - Penguins in 6
- Flyers have a fantastic offense with Briere, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, and Richards, and Braydon Coburn can be a game-changer. But Martin Biron, as much as I like him, is no match for Crosby, Ovechkin, and Sykora.

Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim - SJ in 4
- San Jose would have much rathered seen St. Louis, Columbus, or Nashville, but got stuck with Anaheim. Still, they should walk by them because they're hungrier and deeper than the last time the two met.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus - Columbus in 6
- I'll give the sentimental pick to the Blue Jackets, in part because I think Steve Mason will outplay Chris Osgood/Ty Conklin. I think Antoine Vermette adds a lot of dimension to the club, and if their injured players (Freddy Modin, Derick Brassard, Rostislav Klesla) can return, they can give the Wings a good run for their money. I think the Blue Jackets can beat Detroit, but that might be the end of their run. However, if this series goes to Game 7, I would give the edge to Detroit. Jackets in 6, though, final answer.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis - Vancouver in 4
- Vancouver has been hot, and I think Roberto Luongo is going to shut it down. Mats Sundin probably won't win his first Stanley Cup this year, but he should atleast go further in the playoffs than he has with Toronto the past 3 years.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary - Chicago in 5
- Simple: Calgary enters cold, Chicago enters hot, and with a smokin' hot goalie in Nikolai Khabibulin. He has been on fire, and if he cools off, Cristobal Huet is ready to go. Mikka Kiprusoff had a good season, but has been uncharacteristically inconsistent, which could be his downfall. Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold will help this team, but any team with Jamie Lundmark on it can't go far. Trust me.

What teams have the edge? A solid offense, a respectable defense, and a great goaltender is what you need. If Lundqvist catches fire - entirely possible - will the rest of the team follow suit? Probably not. If Ovechkin becomes Gretzky, will his goaltender become Roy? No.

So, who? Boston seems to have the total package, so does San Jose. But of the teams who are not ranked 1st in their conference, it seems Chicago has the best combo of goalie and forwards.