We've been a little light on the coverage lately, and I suppose it's pretty understandable. The Rangers have been on the golf course for the past two months. The Islanders have been preparing for the draft for the past, oh, forever or so, but Botta has the draft covered so well it doesn't even make sense to detract from that. So it's been a quiet time in the New York hockey scene, to state the obvious.
Fortunately, the NHL Awards show is coming up tonight. While I have no interest in actually watching the show - I can hardly think of something more boring than watching a group of wooden personalities congregate in a large banquet hall - the awards themselves are a blast to debate. I love everything about the NHL awards, from their antequated names to the diverse array of hockey prowess they measure. Reading the predictions of others is always fun, or at least it is until the awards are narrowed down to three finalists, at which time the winner becomes somewhat predictable.
So we're going to have fun with this. Just like we did at the middle of the season, we'll tell you who we're predicting to win - and who would actually win in a perfect world. Remember, the NHL awards are supposed to represent the regular season only. We'll be sure to keep that in mind. We can't say the same about the actual voters.
Hart Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: The highest-scoring player on a media-friendly East Coast team.
- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh), Alexander Ovechkin (Washington).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Zach Parise (New Jersey).
- Who Should Win: Ovechkin.
- Who Will Win: Ovechkin. Malkin will get far more consideration than he should, as everybody will forget that Pittsburgh spent about three-fourths of the season either out of the playoff picture or just barely hanging onto the eighth spot. Meanwhile, the Caps were great whenever Ovechkin played and were horrendous in October, when Ovechkin missed some time. Datsyuk would never have a prayer of winning an award where Ovechkin and Malkin are both nominated.
Vezina Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: Martin Brodeur. Whether he had a good season or not.
- Nominees: Niklas Backstrom (Minnesota), Steve Mason (Columbus), Tim Thomas (Boston).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Henrik Lundqvist (New York Rangers).
- Who Should Win: Thomas
- Who Will Win: Mason. For some reason, it seems like rookies have a better shot at the Vezina than any other individual trophy. And Mason had a truly phenomenal season. However, this is a group where each finalist is flawed. Backstrom and Mason play in defense-heavy systems, while Thomas split time with Manny Fernandez for much of the season. My gut feeling is that the voters will let it slide with Mason and will hold Thomas' low number of games played against him, even though goalies won the Vezina with even less games played one generation ago. Thomas, however, held it down on a team that was second in the league in scoring, truly a remarkable achievement.
Norris Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: An offense-heavy defenseman from a good team.
- Nominees: Zdeno Chara (Boston), Mike Green (Washington), Nicklas Lidstrom (Detroit).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Mark Streit (New York Islanders).
- Who Should Win: Green.
- Who Will Win: Green. Even if some of us detest the Norris becoming an offense-first award, it's hard to ignore Green's numbers and his solid play at his own end. Lidstrom has won this award for the past 50 or so years and it's time to see someone else take the Norris. Some, including notorious Bruins homer Jack Edwards, have championed Chara's cause, and he has certainly had a Norris-caliber year. That said, when Chara has 73 points in a season, he can win this trophy.
Calder Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: The league's best rookie... provided he's a "name" and had impressive numbers.
- Nominees: Steve Mason (Columbus), Bobby Ryan (Anaheim), Kris Versteeg (Chicago).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Cal Clutterbuck (Minnesota).
- Who Should Win: Ryan.
- Who Will Win: Mason. If Mason is a serious Vezina candidate, you can bet the Calder is his as well. Which is a shame, because Ryan should be the guy here. If Ryan had played a full season - and it's not his fault he didn't, as he wasn't called up until November - he'd have ended up with 80+ points; even out in Anaheim, those numbers would speak very loudly to voters. Versteeg had a great year as well, but his critics would say he had plenty of help in the high-scoring Blackhawks offense.
Lady Byng Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: A highly skilled offensive player who totally shies away from physical play.
- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Zach Parise (New Jersey), Martin St. Louis (Tampa Bay).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Like it matters.
- Who Should Win: St. Louis.
- Who Will Win: Datsyuk. He's the biggest name among these candidates. Since it doesn't really make much of a difference who wins, they usually go for the biggest name. I'd be more inclined to vote for St. Louis, who is as annoying of a little turd as you'll find in the NHL.
Selke Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: A solid defensive forward who also doubles as a top scorer.
- Nominees: Pavel Datsyuk (Detroit), Ryan Kesler (Vancouver), Mike Richards (Philadelphia).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: The Selke is like the Gold Glove or the NFL Pro Bowl - once you're on the ballot, you never come off. So let's say Jere Lehtinen, just for fun.
- Who Should Win: Richards.
- Who Will Win: Datsyuk. He seems like the perfect guy to win this award - skilled, yet fairly anonymous on defense. Really, though, Richards needs to win this award one of these years. He's too good to be denied. Most American journalists haven't seen enough of Kesler to give him the nod, which is a shame.
Adams Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: A first-year coach who turns a loser into a winner. Or a coach who has a super season with a perennial powerhouse.
- Nominees: Claude Julien (Boston), Todd McLellan (San Jose), Andy Murray (St. Louis).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Dan Bylsma (Pittsburgh).
- Who Should Win: Julien.
- Who Will Win: Julien. If it's possible to vote against a coach whose team was the second-best offensive team while allowing the fewest goals in the entire league, I'd love to hear the reason. Murray had a tremendous year in St. Louis, but it doesn't compare to the job Julien did with the Bruins. And as much as the Adams is supposed to represent the regular season, it's impossible to separate McLellan's 117 regular season points and his team's latest playoff choke job. A bit unfair, but that's life.
Masterson Trophy
- Who Usually Wins: The player who suffered the most grotesque injury the prior year and came back to play.
- Nominees: Chris Chelios (Detroit), Steve Sullivan (Nashville), Richard Zednik (Florida).
- Who Should Have Been Nominated, But Wasn't: Anybody who watched all 82 games of Islanders hockey this season.
- Who Should Win: Chelios.
- Who Will Win: Zednik. It's hard to vote against a guy who had his throat slit open and came back for more. But Chelios, the Ric Flair of the NHL, keeps coming back to work with the young guys in Detroit even though he's routinely scratched for playoff games. Do you realize Chelios was drafted twenty-nine years ago? That's insane.
Funny story - before I was able to finish this post, the awards show actually started! So far, I was right about Datsyuk winning the Selke and Mason winning the Calder, but I missed out on Steve Sullivan winning the Masterson. He missed two years with a back injury and came back to play in Nashville, of all places, so he certainly deserves this one.
EDIT: Now that it's all over, let's see how I did...
- Hart: Correct on both accounts
- Vezina: My pick was correct, my prediction was incorrect
- Norris: Wrong on both accounts
- Calder: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct
- Lady Byng: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct
- Selke: My pick was incorrect, my prediction was correct
- Adams: Correct on both accounts
- Masterson: Wrong on both accounts
So that makes five of eight predictions in terms of picking how the "experts" would vote. Not so good. And I seriously only got four right? Jeez.
By the way, if you're looking for media bias - and I personally love to do this - there were four winners from the East Coast (three from Boston, one from Washington), two Red Wings, one from Columbus, and one from Nashville. Yeah, the winning players came from good teams. But if you'd rather cry conspiracy or East Coast Bias... you might not be far off.
