Mock Draft: 2003...

Ah, the 2003 NHL Entry Draft, arguably the deepest since 1990, when the top 5 were Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci, and Jaromir Jagr (also in the 1st round: Darryl Sydor at 7, Derian Hatcher at 8, Brad May at 14, Keith Tkachuk at 19, Martin Brodeur at 20, Bryan Smolinksi at 21).

And of course, we know what the Rangers and Islanders did. Hugh Jessiman at 12th overall, the only player in the ’03 Draft to never play an NHL game. Robert Nilsson at 15th overall, who wasn’t even a great player before he was drafted, and certainly isn’t now in Edmonton.

Let’s take a look back at that draft and see the spots players should have gone in hindsight, and who was actually taken there.

I pretended that Draft Day trades never happened. For instance, Pittsburgh actually traded up to #1 (from #3) because they wanted to draft the same goalie that Carolina wanted to draft. In my world, Florida still picked 1st, and the Penguins went 3rd overall.

Consider this a Mock Draft, 6 and a half years later...

#1, Florida, Dion Phaneuf
(Went 9th to Calgary)
Actual Selection: Marc-Andre Fleury, by Pittsburgh
The Penguins and Hurricanes both wanted Fleury, so Pittsburgh traded with Florida, who was set in the goalie position with Roberto Luongo. They took Fleury, and won their Stanley Cup 6 seasons later, so you can’t fault them, but Phaneuf is the biggest difference-maker in the whole 2003 NHL Draft.

#2, Carolina, Zach Parise
(17, New Jersey)
Actual Selection: Eric Staal
Carolina also won a Stanley Cup during Staal’s incredible rookie year, and he is going to be good for a decade, but Parise is more of a game-breaker, just a notch under Phaneuf in terms of being able to decide a game.

#3, Pittsburgh, Ryan Getzlaf
(19, Anaheim)
Actual Selection: Nathan Horton by Florida
Florida saw huge things in Horton, who had good numbers in the OHL along with a mean streak. Getzlaf’s numbers were slightly less than Horton’s, but he has proven to be a solid NHL player while Horton is constantly rumored to be traded.

#4, Columbus, Eric Staal
(2, Carolina)
Actual Selection: Nikolai Zherdev
You can’t blame Columbus for picking Zherdev. He had - and still has - incredible talent, but no one in North America has been able to tap into it, and he’s now home in Russia.


#5, Buffalo, Marc-Andre Fleury
(1, Pittsburgh)
Actual Selection: Thomas Vanek
Vanek is a very good player who has been wildly inconsistent, but if he can play every year like he did in 2006-07 (43-41-84) he can live up to his 5th overall selection.

#6, San Jose, Thomas Vanek
(5, Buffalo)
Actual Selection: Milan Michalek
It’s hard to see what the Sharks saw in Michalek, a player who scored a total of 9 goals in two seasons before being drafted ahead of Parise and Getzlaf. In a perfect world, they would have gotten Vanek instead.

#7, Nashville, Corey Perry
(28, Anaheim)
Actual Selection: Ryan Suter
Suter is good, for sure. At the time, Nashville needed defensive help, but to be honest, they needed all the help they could’ve gotten. Perry satisfies a lot of needs - great offensive skill and a lot of grit, both of which make him invaluable on the power play.

#8, Atlanta, Shea Weber
(49, Nashville)
Actual Selection: Bradyon Coburn
Coburn is good and has great potential - not that Atlanta would know, seeing as he was traded straight up for aging Alexei Zhitnik in 2007. Fact is though, after Phaneuf, Weber was the best defenseman in this draft. Nashville did great in selecting both him and Suter, though they drafted Suter first.

#9, Calgary, Nikolai Zherdev
(4, Columbus)
Actual Selection: Phaneuf
The Flames stole Phaneuf here. Think Columbus would have liked that pick back? Zherdev, though, is still an immense talent, like I said 5 spots earlier. He has incredible skill, and it’s a shame it never got put to use in the NHL.

#10, Montreal, Mike Richards
(24, Philadelphia)
Actual Selection: Andrei Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn will never warrant being a Top 10 pick, while Richards quickly went from unknown player to captain of the Flyers. As with Nashville and Shea Weber, Richards wasn’t even Philadelphia’s first pick of the Draft.

#11, Philadelphia, Brent Seabrook
(14, Chicago)
Actual Selection: Jeff Carter
Philadelphia had previously received Phoenix’s 1st round pick during the season, and took Carter. Can you imagine how dangerous the Flyers would be on the blueline if they had Seabrook back there? Carter is a good player, no doubt, and he scored 46 goals last year and might hit 40 this year, but Seabrook is still improving while it seems Carter might have already hit his peak.


#12, New York Rangers, Braydon Coburn
(8, Atlanta)
Actual Selection: Hugh Jessiman
A note to future GMs: Don’t pick a player because he’s from nearby and grew up a fan of your team. Hugh Freakin’ Jessiman? This guy is the laughingstock of this draft, while Coburn is quickly becoming a great defenseman. Plus, with Coburn, the Rangers wouldn’t have needed to sign Wade Redden, right?

In actuality, the Rangers over-drafted Jessiman. He was supposed to be a power forward in the John LeClair mold who was predicted to go in the late 1st round. The Rangers drafted him this high because they wanted a local guy, but it just never panned out.

#13, Brent Burns, LA
(20, Minnesota)
Actual Selection: Dustin Brown
I can’t possibly blame LA for drafting Brown, a hard-hitting, American-born RW who is one of my favorite non-Ranger players in the league. And people might tell me that Burns is overrated, but I’m very high on him and I think given the right team (a.k.a., not Minnesota), Burns can light this league up.

#14, Chicago, Jaroslav Halak
(271, Montreal)
Actual Selection: Seabrook
Chicago lucked out by still having Seabrook on board. In fact, they had a very good draft. But who let Halak slip to the 9th round?

#15, New York Islanders, Patrice Bergeron
(45, Boston)
Actual Selection: Robert Nilsson
Nilsson had a half-decent year the year he was drafted, yet stunk the next year, and the next, and the next. His biggest contribution to the Islanders was being traded away as part of the Ryan Smyth deal in ’07. Bergeron’s biggest contribution to Boston: 73 points in ‘05-’06 and 70 the next year before almost breaking his neck the next season. He would look good centering the 2nd line for the Islanders, no?

#16, Boston, Dustin Brown
(13, LA)
Actual Selection: Steve Bernier, San Jose
San Jose traded up to take Bernier, who had lit up the junior leagues. His transition to the NHL hasn’t been smooth though, and he is now on the 3rd line on his 3rd team, nowhere near a first-round pick.

#17, Edmonton, Joe Pavelski
(205, San Jose)
Actual Selection: Zach Parise, New Jersey
The Devils jumped at the opportunity to draft Parise after the Rangers, Islanders, and everyone else skipped by him. Funny thing is, Pavelski actually had better numbers in the season prior to being drafted than Parise did, yet he was in the obscure USHL (Parise played in the NCAA) and fell to #205. Looking back, both Pavelski and Parise were great steals.

#18, Washington, Dustin Byfuglien
(245, Chicago)
Actual Selection: Eric Fehr
Byfuglien was an offensive-defenseman in juniors who transitioned very nicely to the NHL game and now plays both D and RW. Fehr was a low-scoring playing in juniors who actually had 2 great years after he was drafted, 50 and 59 goals. He’s been on the back burner in Washington though, and it’s clear he won’t ever be a Top 6 forward on a team that features Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, and Nick Backstrom.

#19, Anaheim, Nathan Horton
(3, Florida)
Actual Selection: Ryan Getzlaf
A great late pick by Anaheim, getting someone who was Top 5 in this draft. Horton played in Oshawa in the OHL and scored 68 points in his draft year, 3rd on the team (oddly enough, #1 was never drafted and #2 went in the 4th round). Makes you wonder what stood out about Horton, who has turned into a good player but nowhere close to a 3rd overall selection.

#20, Minnesota, David Backes
(62, St. Louis
Actual Selection: Brent Burns
A good selection by Burns, though he is probably not fit for the way the Wild play. The Blues saw something in Backes and traded up to 62 to get him, and he’s worked out well. He’s a talented player who can hit, score, and fight. What more can you want?

#21, San Jose, Tobias Enstrom
(239, Atlanta)
Actual Selection: Mark Stuart, Boston
San Jose traded up with Boston to take Steve Bernier while Boston took Stuart here, who wasn’t extremely talented in the USHL or NCAA, and still isn’t in the NHL. He has played 2 full seasons as a Bruin, scoring a total of 25 points in those games. He’ll never be worthy of a 1st round pick, especially when Sweden’s Enstrom was available, though Enstrom didn’t blossom until a few years later.

#22, New Jersey, Jeff Carter
(11, Philadelphia)
Actual Selection: Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Carter went 11th and has had a few good seasons and can definitely score. The Oilers traded down (New Jersey leapt up to take Parise) and took Pouliot, who had a great couple of years in the QMJHL, but has never done it on a professional level. He lights up the AHL when he is down there, but can’t keep up in the NHL.

#23, Vancouver, Ryan Suter
(7, Nashville)
Actual Selection: Ryan Kesler
Kesler is a hard-working player but he probably will never play top-line minutes or score top-line points. Suter is a very good defenseman for Nashville, but he could have been drafted lower than 7th.

#24, Philadelphia, Loui Eriksson
(33, Dallas)
Actual Selection: Mike Richards
The Flyers stole Richards here. He quickly became a force for them - and their captain. Eriksson fell to the 2nd round, though he had better numbers than Horton, Jessiman, and Nilsson.

#25, Tampa Bay, Bernier
(16, San Jose)
Actual Selection: Anthony Stewart, Florida
Florida traded two 2nd round picks and a 6th to Tampa to take Stewart before anyone else did. After all, he was a hard-hitting RW with good offensive skill who was highly-touted. It just hasn’t worked for him in the NHL, as he has 12 points in 105 games and seems destined for a career in the minors.

#26, Maxim Lapierre, LA
(61, Montreal)
Actual Selection: Brian Boyle
LA had 3 picks in the 1st round here, and Boyle was their 2nd. A Ranger now, he was a great high school player when he was drafted. Lapierre was drafted by his hometown Canadiens and adds grit as a 4th liner with great potential should he ever be moved to the 2nd line. He is a Sean Avery type player, and while Boyle is a decent player who is a good penalty killer, Lapierre is a better choice here.

#27, Kyle Quincey, LA
(132, Detroit)
Actual Selection: Jeff Tambellini
Funny enough, the Kings had Quincey for 1 season, he played great, and was traded in part of the Ryan Smyth deal. He’s a solid defenseman with good upside, while Tambellini, well, Islander fans know. He’s a good player who can’t connect in the NHL but puts up great numbers in the AHL.

#28, Dallas, Brian Elliot
(291, Ottawa)
Actual Selection: Corey Perry, Anaheim
Seeing Perry still on the board, the Ducks jumped up and took him, and he rewarded them handsomely. Elliot was the 2nd to last pick in the draft, and while it has taken him a while to find himself, he has a good future as a starter in the NHL.

#29, Nigel Dawes, Ottawa
(149, Rangers)
Actual Selection: Patrick Eaves
Dawes is a speedy forward with a good shot, who, if given the chance, can be a Top 6 forward. He never got that chance in New York. Eaves was offensive at Boston College, but has found a spot on NHL rosters as a 3rd/4th liner. He’ll chip in 5-10 goals a year but you can never say that he was worth going 29th overall.

#30, St. Louis, Patrick O’Sullivan
(56, Minnesota)
Actual Selection: Shawn Belle
Belle was a curious selection - he was a stay-at-home defenseman who could have been picked later in the draft. He has played 11 career games in the NHL and now is in Montreal’s farm system. O’Sullivan could have been a Top 10 pick but his well-documented family troubles (a very abusive father who he filed a restraining order against) steered teams away from him. The Wild took him 56th overall, a value selection at that point. He had one good year with LA and now is in Edmonton, where he is struggling, but so is the team. Given the right situation, O’Sullivan can still do damage in this league.

Shots...

Phil Esposito, in his high-scoring career, always said that the more you shot, the more you scored. 

I don't disagree with Phil, but I also think that it's the quality of shots as opposed to the quantity. I do agree that if you get the puck to the net, your chances of scoring multiply greatly (and that is the most obvious statement I've ever said), but crappy shots from the goal line rarely go in (unless your team was playing the Rangers during last year's Western Canadian road trip, when shots by Vancouver and Calgary snuck by Henrik Lundqvist at the post).

Who has the most shots on goal for the Rangers this year? If you play fantasy hockey, you would already know the answer to this. Far and away, Scott Gomez has the most. His 146 shots are 10 more than Ryan Callahan, 15 more than Chris Drury, and 29 more than anybody else on the team. Keep in mind, Gomez also sat out 5 games to injury.

Of forwards who get regular ice time, Gomez is last in shooting percentage, clocking in at a very un-$7M/year 5.5%. (Colton Orr and Fred Sjostrom have lower percentages, as do 4 defensemen.) He has 8 goals on those shots, and two of those are empty netters. So the real math is as follows...

6 goals. 144 shots. 4.2% of his shots go past a goaltender.

Against Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Rangers had 33 shots on goal, technically. The Penguins had 23 shots.

The shot selection was the key to victory for the Penguins (as well as a listless effort by the Rangers, but that's another story altogether).

The Penguins were able to break through the defense of the Rangers and get odd-man rushes and breakaways on Lundqvist. Tyler Kennedy basically danced in all alone while Nigel Dawes did nothing to stop Kennedy's shot that beat Lundqvist. The Rangers take a multitude of hooking and holding penalties when they don't have to, yet to stop a goal, all Dawes had to do was slash his stick or yank his arm, and he didn't do it. 

The Rangers couldn't penetrate the injured defensive players of Pittsburgh, and wound up taking awful shots from the goal line and near the boards. ESPN Magazine had an interesting line about how Guy LaFleur and others used to shoot from the boards and it would go in, but thanks to the new stay-at-home goalies, that's a thing of the past. Someone should tell Gomez (and the rest of the team as well).

How many REAL chances did the Rangers get? Coach Tom Renney said maybe five. I know Dawes had a great one that beat Marc-Andre Fleury but rang off the crossbar. Nikolai Zherdev did some fancy moves and nearly deked around 3 enemy skaters but lost the puck at the end. Drury had a 4-on-3 shot that almost went in. Crossbar, nearly, almost. Story of the season.

I would rather the Rangers take 10 shots per game if they are all from in the slot. These half-hearted attempts at throwing the puck to the net in hopes of causing rebounds are atrocious. These rebounds aren't being picked up by Ranger players because they aren't in front of the net! They're playing perimeter hockey, and goals just don't get scored that way. 

If Renney is content winning 1-0 and 2-1 games, then by all means, play the perimeter and hope to get lucky. But to be honest, the defense isn't good enough to make one-goal leads hold up for more than a game or two at a time. Once the Rangers are exposed, they are exposed.

Yes, Phil Esposito scored a lot, and he shot a lot. But his shots were from in the slot, prime real estate, in front of a screened goalie. That's how you score goals, not when the goalie clearly sees the puck traveling in at a 180 degree angle.

Game of the Year

No, I'm not talking about today's Islanders-Flyers game. I will never understand the logic of scheduling games on holidays where half the working and college worlds will be unable to watch. Sure, kids are off from school, but it doesn't mean parents are automatically going to take their kids to the Coliseum. Hell, I worship hockey, and I wouldn't even spend a personal day at a hockey game. Days off from work are supposed to be spent doing as little as possible.

Anyway. Happened to catch the Red Wings-Penguins game on Versus tonight, and it's everything hockey should be. This isn't just because of the 7-6 final, though the high number of goals certainly doesn't hurt. The game was played at a high intensity throughout, and the Penguins' road comeback from a three-goal deficit is certainly something we're going to remember for a long time. (Note: Islander fans can now stop killing their team over Saturday night's game; even Stanley Cup winners blow three-goal leads at home to Pittsburgh.) With the national spotlight on this game, both teams delivered. If every game was like this, hockey would be back on the map in no time. Oh wait, I forgot... ESPN still won't pay attention because they don't air NHL games. Sorry.

Still, this was one of the best games I can remember seeing. It's probably the best I've seen since the memorable Finals between these two teams. People love to say how hockey used to be better in the '80s because of the high scoring, but it also had no defense and horrific goaltending. Tonight's game had the goals, but also some great defensive work and quality netminding by both Chris Osgood and Marc-Andre Fleury. Just about every player made at least one great play. That's all you can ask for.

As an Islander fan, I know the Stanley Cup isn't on the horizon anytime soon. So all I ask of my team is that someday, they play a game like this one. Give us a game we'll never forget, even if the result is a loss. We deserve at least that much. Same goes for Ranger fans as well. It doesn't need to be a championship. Just three hours of greatness. Is that too much to ask?