I Was Right; I Was Wrong...

Of course, no Ranger games will be played at the Coliseum next season. Got to save those for weeknights since they'll close-to-sell-out anyway. No need to waste a Saturday where you'll sell 14,000 tickets anyway, no matter who the opponent. I was right about that.

I was wrong, however, when I predicted that 80% of their last 10 games would be division rivals. In fact, only half are, and we get to see that always exciting "Florida road trip" in April. Whoa, Schedule Makers, I'll make sure I take my heart medicine, because that's one to get the blood pumping!

And of course, what season would be complete without a home & home versus Philadelphia?

When the Penguins won the Cup, an avid and eager reader of this website, Dan, sent a string of angry text messages. One of them predicted that the Rangers would be the opponent when the Penguins raise the Stanley Cup banner to the rafters. Indeed, a short month later, his Nostradamus-like prediction is in fact a reality. I'm not mad. First of all, it's a crappy thing to get mad about. Second of all, maybe watching it will light an illusionary fire under the arses of certain Rangers players and get them going.

When the Rangers were awful in 2002-03, I wanted to send a mail to MSG. Specifically, I wanted to mail it to Gord Dwyer. I figured he never got any fan mail, so he would atleast open it, as opposed to sending it to Mark Messier or Tom Poti (it would have been lost in Poti's hatemail). I wanted to send him the video tape of "Oh Baby!" which was the highlights of the 1993-94 season, from playing in Europe to winning the Cup in Game 7. I figured it would start a fire under him, and he would show it to everyone and they would then be inspired to reach for glory.

Alas, I never sent it, the Rangers missed the playoffs, and I've blamed myself ever since. So maybe the banner-raising ceremony in Steeltown will be the "Oh Baby!" that is still sitting on my desk upstairs in my room.

A few notes...

In 2005-06, the Rangers played a very short February also, due to the Olympics. They played 6 games and won all of them, 5 in regulation and 1 in overtime on a Jaromir Jagr goal (from Martin Rucinsky and Michal Rozsival... ah, to be Czech in America). This year, that's do-able as well. Six games, 4 at home, including the Lightning and Predators.

With 24 games vs. the Atlantic, 40 vs. the rest of the East, and 15 against the West, that leaves them playing 3 Western teams twice this year. If I remember from last year, they played Chicago twice, Dallas twice, and the Ducks twice. This year's repeat offenders are St. Louis, Phoenix, and Los Angeles.

No "California Trip" this year, since their only game out there is against LA. That trip sees them in Phoenix, Colorado, then LA. The "Florida Trip" not only happens near the end of the season, but the Rangers also make the same trip during Thanksgiving week, as they do every year (Panthers on Thanksgiving Eve, Lightning on Black Friday).

They do have a Western Canada trip, though, as they play Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton in early November. Mark that down as a loss, as they normally do awful on that road trip. That will also be Tom Renney's first - and only - meeting with his old team. They also stop in Minnesota before hitting Canada.

Don't bank on any romantic Friday evenings at the Garden. The Rangers have 6 road games on a Friday (including the opener in Pittsburgh) but if you want to see them in the City on a Friday, you'll have to wait until the last home game of the year, 4/9/10 (looks weird to write!) against the Flyers.

Three home games that my girlfriend will kill me if I don't sell my tickets: 11/21 vs. Florida, her birthday; 2/14 vs. Tampa Bay, Valentine's Day; and 3/18 vs. St. Louis, our anniversary.

Possible road trips: October 24 & January 23, Montreal; December 9, Chicago; December 17, Philadelphia; January 9 & March 21, Boston; March 6, Washington; March 27, Toronto; December 21 & 31, Carolina. Sadly, no trip to Nashville is in the works, atleast not for a hockey game.

How Good Are Predictions?...

We know the gig. Everyone from a famous magazine, to a beat writer, to a blogger, to a hack buying a sandwich at Hot & Crusty before a Rangers' game makes predictions on the season before the puck drops, based on trades, offseason signings, and personal biases. Yes, personal biases. How else do you explain me picking the Rangers to make the playoffs in 2005-06 when everyone had them as dead? How else do you explain me and Larry Brooks both proclaiming them Stanley Cup champions in 2006-07, or me sending them to the Finals again last year?

Well, ever wonder just how accurate these predictions are? Before last season, I wrote down predictions from 4 sources - me, Newsday's beat writer Steve Zipay, Eklund from that rumor website, and ESPN (don't know who wrote the article, though).

After the season, I wrote down the real finishing order of both conferences, compared, and contrasted. I gave 2 points if the team finished in the exact spot predicted, and 1 point if they finished in or out of the playoffs as predicted, but with a different finishing order. For Newsday, he just listed "playoff teams" without a specific order, so I gave him 2 points for every team that made the playoffs that he predicted. Okay, without further ado, the results...

Second Place (tie)

In last place was ESPN, who only predicted 2 out of 6 division winners correctly (San Jose and Detroit). They thought both Atlanta and the Southeast-winning Capitals would be worse than actual worst-in-the-league Tampa Bay. They did have a lot of playoff teams, especially in the West, where the only team they overlooked was Minnesota (giving the nod to the Canucks, instead). 

24 points

Second Place (tie)

The bronze medal goes to The Rivalry's own Zach, who homered like no other, picking the Rangers to win the Atlantic (2nd overall in the east behind Ottawa), then winning the Stanley Cup by beating Calgary. Wow. Both of my Finals teams were out by the 2nd round. I also only had two spots dead-on, as I correctly predicted the Red Wings-Predators first round match-up that was. I as well had Tampa Bay to win their division, but I also had Washington making the playoffs. Uh, I also had Toronto in the playoffs and conference-winning Montreal on the outside looking in. Predicting the Flyers and Bruins to miss the playoffs? My bad. Like ESPN, I had 7 of 8 playoff teams in, only choosing Vancouver over the Wild.

24 points

Second Place (tie)

Newsday's correspondent Steve Zipay decided to not list an order and just put in who he thought would skate in the playoffs. His East was not too good, picking the Leafs, Hurricanes, and Sabres over actual-playoff teams Boston, Montreal, and Washington. In the West, he redeemed himself, going the ever-popular 7 of 8. The only blemish on his record their was Vancouver's missing of the playoffs. The team he left out - Nashville.

24 points

First Place

As much as it pains me, that Guy from the Site that announced "rumors" came in first place last year. He predicted the Penguins to come in 2nd in the East, the Capitals to come in 3rd, the Red Wings to win the West (easiest and most popular pick there was, apparently). He also capitalized on being from Philadelphia by picking the Flyers to make the playoffs. His only two mistakes in the East were Buffalo and Toronto, as he left out the Bruins and the Devils. He actually predicted the Devils to finish in 14th, with only Atlanta below them. In the West, his one mistake was, yes, Vancouver. He left out Dallas, who ended up 5th and dispatched the defending champion Ducks. He had Dallas coming in 13th, behind lottery teams St. Louis and Los Angeles.

27 points

So, what did we learn here? It's pretty tough to accurately predict, which is why we can't take them too seriously. The time will come on this blog when me and Bryan will make predictions, and both will put our favorite team way too high on the list. Well, at least he will. I'll put the Rangers where they will be at season's end - 1st, and he'll put the Islanders where he hopes they'll be - 9th. 

And the moral of the story is not to pick the Vancouver Canucks to do anything except lose, a tidbit I should've remembered from the year after the lockout, when I predicted them and Ottawa to be in the Stanley Cup finals, only to have them not make the playoffs.

Who Improved and Where the Rangers Stand...

Last year, the Eastern Conference was a crapshoot. Much like David Caruso's career, Ottawa started real hot then dropped off the face of the Earth. Montreal and Pittsburgh, boosted by strong power plays, were the obvious best teams in the East, but they only rose to the top of the standings around early-March. Every other team was mediocre. 

If it was pre-lockout, the Rangers might not have made the playoffs, but they did last season because of Brendan Shanahan, Nigel Dawes, and Henrik Lundqvist's shootout performances. Washington clinched the playoffs on the last day possible. Carolina lost out on a playoff spot on the last day possible. Even the Islanders were relevant until March's injuries piled up. Boston made the playoffs for the first time since 2004 and nearly beat the #1 ranked Canadiens.

What I'm saying is that it's anybody's conference to take. In the West, you knew Detroit will be up there, and Anaheim, San Jose, and Dallas should make the playoffs, while Phoenix, LA, Chicago, Edmonton, St. Louis, and Columbus would be awful. 

Will anything change in the East this year? Probably not. Who really improved in the East in the offseason?

* * * 

Far and away the winners of the East are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vaclav Prospal returns next season, Matt Carle is in on defense, and they signed Ryan Malone, Radim Vrbata (both people I think the Rangers should have tried to get), Gary Roberts, Olaf Kolzig, Mark Recchi, and power play QB Andrew Hutchinson. Oh, and Steven Stamkos should transition well in the NHL playing alongside Vinny Lecavilier. While their goaltending still is a question mark (Mike Smith and Kolzig are both a half-step up from being backup goaltenders), their beefed up offense should make up for a shaky back half. The only one missing from their team is expensive Dan Boyle, but now that they have an owner who wants to spend money, a trade deadline deal for a top defender is certainly possible.

Atlanta was awful last season and should be this season. They did rob the Penguins blind in the Marian Hossa deal, but Angelo Esposito probably won't catch fire this season, even if he makes the roster. The additions of Erik Christensen and Colby Armstrong from Pittsburgh do help, but they are role players who aren't going to pot you 40 goals like Hossa would have. When your big offseason acquisition is named Ron Hainsley, you aren't moving forward.

Florida is also a team that is going nowhere. They might be the worst franchise in all of professional sports, Knicks included. They traded Olli Jokinen for a bundle of nothing, somehow re-signed Jay Bouwmeester even though we all know that he will not be there next season. Their lone spotlights are Nathan Horton and Tomas Vokoun. These guys are not a threat for anything except John Tavares in next year's Entry Draft.

Finishing off the Southeast, the Hurricanes and Capitals stood pat. While cash-strapped Carolina would up getting the defender they needed in Joni Pitkanen, it cost them heart-and-soul man Erik Cole. Yes, they signed Darcy Hordichuk, but can a 4th line goon lift you over the hump and into the playoffs? After making the playoffs last year, the Capitals decided to go with the same team this year. Sergei Federov, a good deadline deal, is back for another older, slower season, and their goaltending tandem of Jose Theodore and Brent Johnson is not as good as Kolzig and Christobal Huet were last year.

Long story short: One team will make the playoffs from the Southeast, and that's just because those are the rules.

* * * 

In the Northeast division, the Toronto Maple Leafs aim to miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year, which would be a new team record. Overpaying for Jeff Finger, trading for Jamal Mayers and Ryan Hollweg, not-yet-re-signing Mats Sundin or moving Bryan McCabe. I like GM Cliff Fletcher, but what exactly is he doing?

The Montreal Canadiens improved by leaps and bou-- no, they didn't improve at all. They missed the boat on Hossa, they probably won't get Sundin, but don't worry, Georges Laraque has arrived in Montreal! Alex Tanguay should help their already strong offense though and he came cheap in the form of just draft picks. They shouldn't miss Mark Streit on the power play too much, but can Alex Kovalev have another great season? While they are a good team still, the fact is, they aren't much better than last year, if at all.

The Boston Bruins signed unproven, unmotivated forward Blake Wheeler (although he did want to play in Beantown) and overpaid for Michael Ryder to replace Glen Murray. Is that any way to build a playoff contender? However, I think they would take a step forward if they would finally just admit to themselves that Tim Thomas is their starting goaltender. This guy is so motivated it's incredible.

Buffalo... uhhh, did the Sabres have an offseason? Yes, they traded away Steve "Brian Campbell" Bernier. Campbell's replacement is Craig Rivet, a journeyman who, while solid, won't stop a Crosby, Ovechkin, or Malkin from scoring. They also re-signed the aging, unhealthy Teppo Numinen, presumably as a locker room presence. 

Ottawa's big offseason move was what they didn't do - they didn't trade Antoine Vermette, which is huge. He can be a great player if any of their Big 3 - Heatley, Spezza, Alfredsson - falter or get hurt like in 2007-08. Their goaltending is a question mark as well, with Martin Gerber and the well-traveled Alex Auld standing guard. That shouldn't inspire confidence in Canada's capital.

* * * 

Now, the East. I won't dwell too much on the Rangers, but regardless of what you think of their offseason moves, they are a better team today than they were in May.

Wade Redden and Dmitri Kalinin, and whoever turns out to be the 7th d-man are better than the likes of Tyutin, Backman, Malik, and Strudwick. Plus, Paul Mara returned at a discount, and Marc Staal and Dan Girardi should continue to excel this season.

Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev are being counted on to have comeback years, and that may be asking a lot, but atleast the offense is styled differently. Plus, their power play should click this year without Jaromir Jagr to receive passes from Michal Rozsival and Marty Straka.

The one big loss is Sean Avery, a winger who could change games with his gritty style as well as put the puck home in big situations (just ask Martin Brodeur). Losing Ryan Hollweg for a draft pick was a no-brainer, and Aaron Voros and/or Patrick Rissmiller will take over his role and make it more offensive as well.

Did the Pittsburgh Penguins improve? Not too much. As well as losing roster players in Christensen and Armstrong and a top prospect in Esposito, they essentially traded hometown-boy Ryan Malone and Hossa for Miro Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko, two middling wingers who had bad seasons. Their bright spot of the offseason was getting Brooks Oprik back when it looked like he would be on the way out. They still have their core, and they will be dangerous, no doubt. But they question is, did they improve? The answer has to be no, they did not.

We all know the Islanders' problems, starting with Charles Wang and Garth Snow and moving out. Streit should help the team and make up for losing Marc-Andre Bergeron and Bryan Berard with the man-advantage.  Doug Weight will help as well, that is until February, when he along with a bunch of other expiring-contracts are traded to contenders for draft picks and prospects.

It was Old Timer's Day in July for the Devils, as they signed former players Bobby Holik, Brian Rolston, and Scott Clemmensen as their 3rd goalie. Rolston is a great utility man, but I think the Devils will overuse him. Holik is a serviceable 3rd line center these days, but the days of him shutting down other teams top lines are over. They also overpaid for Bryce Salvador, but they did need a big body on the blueline. While Rolston was a good pick-up, their defense is still holier than the Bible Belt, and their offense can't make up for it. However, while I expect big years from Zach Parise and Travis Zajac, I can't say they improved much.

The Flyers were active in getting Glen Metropolit in his declining years, Steve Eminger, a few Finnish defensemen whose names I can't pronounce, and re-signing Jeff Carter, but it came at the cost of young gun R.J. Umberger and Prospal. Still, I would say the Flyers improved, if only slightly. Their defense is suspect with Derian Hatcher still there and Jaroslav Modry gone, but Braydon Coburn can only get better. Him and Kimmo Timonen on the same pairing could be one of, if not the best in the East.

* * * 

I didn't mean for this to be this long, and if you made it this far, I applaud you.

Who improved? Tampa, for sure. Probably the Flyers. Other teams just swapped one player for another, getting rid of a Malone for a Satan, or a Sergei Brylin for a Holik. That doesn't necessarily make them a better team, just the same team with different names on the back.

On paper, it appears the Rangers are one of the most-improved teams in the East, if not only by their additions then by their subtractions. That's not to say I didn't love Jagr and Straka and Shanahan, but it will be a completely different team, and that can't hurt.