After Two Games...

The Islanders season is just 125 minutes old, and a ton has already happened. Three points out of four? Not bad. But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Let's review this young season after two games...

 - Injuries: They happen. Do they knock out your three best players before the end of the first period of your first game? Not really. But the Islanders should be used to fighting back from injuries. These Islanders cannot use the injuries to Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo and John Tavares as an excuse. I don't care what the front office says about rebuilding; this year has to be the year the Islanders go to the playoffs.

(Just a quick note about Tavares... I've suffered from four concussions that I know about. The most recent was in 2007 in a car accident; it was also the only one that prompted me to see a doctor or even stop what I was doing. As it happens, I can't recall a week over the past two years when I haven't had a migraine. Coincidence? I think not. After watching the Mets nearly kill Ryan Church and Jason Bay in recent years, please Islanders, I beg of you, do not rush John Tavares back.)

 - Rick DiPietro: Couldn't be happier that Ricky is back among the active and healthy. His first two games have been a bit spotty, but this is what happens when you've played roughly a dozen games in the past two years. It takes a while to play the game in an ultra-competitive setting. I'm willing to spot him the occasional bad goal, especially as he gets his bearings back. 

Of course, his rust hasn't stopped people on the comment boards and forums from proclaiming DP as the Antichrist. Do you people even realize how easy it would have been for Rick DiPietro to quit? How can you not admire someone who fights back like that? Nevermind that DP signed his future to this team at a time when they had just brought Garth Snow in as GM and nobody wanted anything to do with the Islanders. Me, I gladly welcome DiPietro back, and I look forward to seeing him return to form.

 - Offense: Love it. In fact, from now on, when I do my online betting, I'm taking the over in every Islanders game. This team can score, and the power play is red-hot. Let's not forget this outburst has come without the Islanders' top three point scorers from last year. The big stories are the emergence of Blake Comeau and Josh Bailey as big-game players. While the odds of Comeau and Bailey producing at this level for the duration of the season are long indeed, both players should be counted on for at least 20 goals each in 2010-11.

 - The Wisniewski Incident: This is one of those stories, that quite frankly, wouldn't even be an issue if the Internet didn't exist. An isolated incident becomes a huge story because YouTube can quickly spread around the "offensive" action, and the blogosphere, talking heads and Twitter people can debate the issue ad nauseum. The other side of the issue, of course, is that people wouldn't feel the need to debate the possible consequences so fervently if the NHL actually used consistency when disciplining wrongdoers, but that's a different story altogether.

What does Wisniewski deserve? One game. Let's face it, the incident was hardly incendiary, but the NHL has to establish a precedent when it comes to on-ice conduct that doesn't involve maiming someone. The whole "first-time offender" argument won't save Wisniewski, as the NHL simply must make him a sacrificial lamb so that players won't think they can get away with these actions. You could argue that Sean Avery is implicit in this incident, but you have to know he's going to try to get under your skin, so you shouldn't do anything stupid. Like, you know, simulating a BJ right in front of a referee.

 - New Goal Song: For those who haven't heard, the Islanders players have requested a change to their goal song. The request was made at the behest of Zenon Konopka, who chose a song called "Live is Life" by Opus. While I enjoy the irony of a player with six career goals spurring the charge to change the team goal song, and I don't particularly care for the new song - I'm also a huge Pennywise fan - at least the Islanders are trying to do something different. That's always a good thing as you try to establish your own identity. The subtext to all of this is that these Islanders are a unified team. They're on the same page, both on and off the ice. You can't ask for more than that.

 - Low Attendance: I'm not surprised. Before the season started, I wrote that the Islanders were drastically increasing expectations when they drastically increased their ticket prices. Right now, Long Island sees the Islanders as the sad-sack team they've always been. The only thing that can change this perception is by winning. A lot.

One thing we can't forget is that virtually all of Long Island - and everywhere else, for that matter - is broke. Zach is fond of saying that Long Island is a great place to live if you have money. For those of us who don't, though, it's not so easy. Personally, I can't see myself getting to the Coliseum even once this year, and that's with two jobs. I'm far from the only one in this predicament. Dee Karl echoed many of these sentiments earlier today. The Islanders are going to have to do something about these ticket prices or else face seeing many, many empty seats.

One last thing about attendance. Whose bright idea was it to schedule a rivalry game on Columbus Day?!? This is a day that's usually targeted towards families, who generally don't want to buy tickets to what may be a fight-filled game. It's also not really ideal for working adults, many of whom didn't have today off, myself included. Just a disaster all-around. When the fans of two teams can't fill up your arena, somebody screwed up big-time.

On Face(off) Value

When you're a fan of a losing team, you generally don't watch them expecting to win. Instead, you watch hoping you'll see something amazing. For example, even though the Mets were out of playoff contention in July, I still watched them most nights, just in case they finally pitched a no-hitter (yeah, I know) or did something particularly special. In hockey, there are no milestones that would compare to a no-hitter, so I hope for very memorable games, the kind that transcend a losing season. Last year, beating Detroit and Chicago on the road were such games, and Opening Night would have been such a game had the Islanders pulled it out.

Wednesday night's game against the Rangers would certainly qualify as what I'd call a memorable game. If the Islanders to produce a 2009-10 highlight video, highlights of Wednesday night would be heavily featured. The Islanders played their game, were intense throughout, and won their first regulation game by sheer will. The Islanders also won because of a growing trend in their play - their success in the faceoff circle.

Over the summer, I read Moneyball by Michael Lewis. Moneyball, for those who don't know, explains how the small-market Oakland A's of Major League Baseball were able to stay competitive with teams like the Yankees by building their team around undervalued assets like walks and on-base percentage. As I read Moneyball, I tried to figure out what statistics in hockey could be the basis for a winning team in today's NHL. One of these days, I'll post my thoughts. For now, though, perhaps the most important stat I'd build around would be faceoff percentage.

Think about it. There are approximately 60 faceoffs in a game. The average team, of course, wins 50 percent of those faceoffs, meaning that they begin play with the puck 30 times a game. A team that wins 60 percent of their faceoffs, on the other hand, begins with the puck 36 times. That's twelve times more than their opponent. So, not only do you have the edge twelve more times than your opponent, that's twelve times that your opponent can't score until you give up the puck.

As of right now, the Islanders sit at third in the NHL with a success rate of 54.1% in the faceoff circle, with the Isles dominating faceoffs in their past few games. And while this success hasn't resulted in wins just yet, there's plenty of reason for optimism - aside from the Islanders (.409), Minnesota (.250) and Nashville (.458), every team over 50% in faceoffs has earned more than half of the points it could have possibly earned so far this season. What's particularly telling about the Islanders' success is that it's been widespread. Every eligible Islander is over 50% in faceoffs this year, including John Tavares at 50.3%, Josh Bailey at 53.9%, and both Doug Weight and Nate Thompson at 58.8%.

What does all of this mean? Simply put, if the Islanders are better than their opponents at controlling the puck off the draw, they're that much more likely to control play and potentially generate good scoring chances. In addition, their opponents will have to make more plays on defense than usual in order to get the puck. And if the Islanders can get past their third period hiccups - as they did on Wednesday night - their faceoff skills can help them become a truly dangerous team.

The Blueline...

For next season, which begins October 2nd in Pittsburgh, the Rangers currently have 4 defenseman with "guaranteed" spots. I put that in quotes because you never know who might get traded - let's hope - or injured - let's hope not - before then.

We have: Wade Redden, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, and Michal Rozsival.

Matt Gilroy is probably going to play in the NHL also. Everyone is very impressed by him, and you don't pay $1.75M/year to keep a player in the minor leagues.

So that leaves one spot. Corey Potter? Mike Sauer? Possible on both fronts, but more likely they will be in Hartford until their contracts end out, then bounce around the AHL (with some rare NHL appearances). Their career-paths will probably look more like Bryce Lampman's and Lawrence Nycholat's than Brian Leetch's.

I figure it comes down to two players. Granted, I don't know a ton. I don't go to training camp, I don't travel to Traverse City. I just read about the Rangers online, a lot, and I know a certain bit about the NHL from watching it for years.

Those two players: 2006 1st round draft pick (21st overall) Bobby Sanguinetti and 2008 1st round draft pick (20th overall) Mike Del Zotto.

And the early edge goes to Del Zotto. He looks real sharp from all accounts in nearly every aspect, and a lot of people think he can push for a spot. Even if he is bound for the OHL this year (he is too young to play in the AHL), the Rangers can still have him in the NHL for 10 games before they decide to send him there. That's good experience as a 7th d-man, and a great chance to make the Rangers think they should keep him up here - much like Josh Bailey and the Islanders last season.

So where does that leave Sanguinetti? This kid grew up in Trenton, NJ, and was a Rangers fan even when the Devils were winning Stanley Cups when he was 7, 12, and 15. He had a great 2007-08 season in Brampton (OHL) and didn't play particularly bad last year in Hartford, either.

But is he improving? Has Del Zotto out-performed him? And this is the year that Sanguinetti's contract is up. Sure, he'll only be a restricted free agent and he is still only 21, but Del Zotto is two years younger and seems to have surpassed him.

This isn't an attack on Sanguinetti at all. It just seems that there aren't very many roster spots available for the taking - 2, possibly, but probably only 1 - due to a few heavy-handed contracts (as well as the fact that you need veterans on the blueline). Maybe if Gilroy wasn't signed last year, or maybe if Del Zotto didn't emerge, Sanguinetti would be the 6th.

What are the options? No doubt they'll keep him around in Hartford if he doesn't make the team, but he could be Al Montoya-ed during the trade deadline to get a real nice veteran for a playoff run.

At any rate, Del Zotto vs. Sanguinetti should be one of the best "fights" at training camp. I'm looking forward to it, and I hope both show incredible talent.

* * *

Oh, and if anyone wants half-priced tickets to the Rangers/Bruins pre-season game on Tuesday, September 15, please let me know. I'll be in Las Vegas (lobbying for an NHL team there) and can't make it. Each seat is $60 and I'll sell the pair for $60. Email: arson83@aim.com

A Tale Of Two Teams

Is this how the rest of the season is going to be?

If you're an Islanders fan, tonight's game was hell. First off, you're playing Atlanta, one of the teams you're "competing" with for the first overall pick. Then, before you know it, you're up 4-0 in the first period. You're happy to see the team playing so well... but at the same time, you're hoping you're not setting yourself up to miss out on the first overall pick. The third period comes around, and you let up three quick goals. You immediately think about November and the string of blown leads that led to two months of perpetual failure. You hope for a win... but you wouldn't exactly mind a loss, either. Okposo scores to make it 5-3 and you can breathe again. Kovalchuk scores the goal you knew was coming to make it 5-4. You secretly wish for overtime so that even if you win, you're only "gaining" a point on Atlanta. Finally, the game ends, and the Islanders are on top.

Do you rejoice over the end of a 14-game road losing streak? Are you thrilled at the play of your young stars? Do you piss and moan about the diminshed chance of winning the John Tavares sweepstakes?

Tough questions to answer. But here's what I'm thinking - yes, absolutely, and only a little.

I've done a lot of thinking lately about the second half of the Islanders season and what we can expect to see. And the parallel I keep coming back to is the 2005-06 Penguins. Those Penguins were full of young guys, and when Mario Lemieux called it quits, the team was ill-equipped for anything besides a lengthy stay at the bottom of the league. As the season progressed, the young guys got all the experience they needed; by season's end, they were not only a dangerous team, but they were a trendy pick to really take off the following season. And that's exactly what happened.

Now, I'm not saying the Islanders are going to be a playoff team next year and reach the Stanley Cup Final in two years. But thinking about the way this season has gone so far, it's hard to imagine them being this lousy for the whole year. Besides, the Isles' young players have had plenty of game experience and have played in many critical moments this year. And we saw tonight how all of that has paid off. This a lead they would have totally blown in November. Tonight, they won. And it was the young players - Nielsen, Gervais, Bailey, Okposo - that played the big minutes and held down the fort. Just because it was a game against the Atlanta Thrashers shouldn't devalue this victory.

Time will tell how this season will play out. But here's one I'd wager money on (if I actually had any) - the Islanders will win three straight games at one point in the second half. They'll still get their plush draft pick, don't worry about that. But I think we'll also see some real progress, the kind that will get us very excited about next year - for the right reasons.

World Junior Championships

Canada just won the World Junior Championships, just as we all knew they would. Congrats to the Canadian team for their victory. There are two Islanders-related points to be made here.

First, should the Islanders end up with the first overall pick, they'll clearly be selecting John Tavares, and if they don't, I don't know if I can follow them anymore. If they somehow talk themselves out of taking this kid, they're worse off than we all think. Remember, Tavares probably would have been the first overall pick last year, only he just barely missed the cutoff for the Draft and couldn't be selected. Tavares is just toying with the people at his level. He probably could step right into the NHL and play pretty well; given the Islanders' attendance problems, that's exactly what will happen.

Second, in response to the controversy over whether Josh Bailey should have played in this tournament... well, he probably should have. That's big-game experience in a big-time environment, and even if that experience won't be drawn upon for a couple of years, it's nice for your first-round pick to have that kind of background. Still, he scored his first goal while the tournament was going on, so it's hard to argue with that. You can look at it either way, but players only get to play in the World Juniors once. They can score their first NHL goal anytime. Not saying Garth Snow made a bad decision, but there's an intangible trait acquired from a tournament such as this that isn't learned losing night after night on the road.

Anyway, the Isles are already up 2-0 in Edmonton in another West Coast game. Zach likes these West Coast games, as he stated a few weeks back. Me, I can't stand them. I end up staying up too late and hating myself for it in the morning. But huge kudos go to MSG Plus for broadcasting these games in HD when they could easily choose to leave the HD equipment back at home. It makes watching these games a lot more bearable.

Oh, and Edmonton fans? Mike Comrie left the team six years ago. Get over it.

Bailey Stays

It's not much of a surprise given how well he's done so far, but Josh Bailey will be an Islander for the duration of the season. The Islanders announced this morning that they're keeping Bailey on the big club. And I say, why not? He's certainly proven he can contribute on this level. His numbers (0-5-5) sort of belie the progress he's made. Don't let the lack of goals fool you - they'll come soon enough. And with the right scorers on his line, Bailey could soon become the team's top playmaker. I'm glad they're giving him the chance to learn on the job. It's a rebuilding year; let Bailey take his lumps now so that he'll be more seasoned once things pick up around here.

Speaking of young players, I just read in Logan's blog that Jeff Tambellini has now played in 100 NHL games. In those hundred games, he has four goals and nineteen points, with no goals in his last 40 games. A lot of people dump on Tambellini, and deservedly so, but he's been trying to add a physical aspect to his game lately. It make sense to try to do this. Sometimes, you need to focus on something else to regain that natural scoring touch, to get back to that place where you don't have to think about the play and just react instead. Having said all that, Tambellini is here to score, something he's not doing very well. It'll be interesting to see how the Islanders handle the Tambellini situation going forward if things don't improve.

Home game tonight against Ottawa (again). Here's hoping for a nice bounce-back effort and an Islanders win.

New York Islanders 2008-09 Preview

The Islanders' season starts tomorrow, and yet everybody is convinced that it's already over. Are they right?

Sort of.

I've gotten a fair amount of crap from people for being too hard on my own team. Hey, it's a defense mechanism. You root for teams like the Islanders, the Jets, the Mets, and Newcastle United and you start to accept losing. You don't want to get your hopes up because you know you'll just hurt that much more when the other shoe drops. I don't think any Islander fan ever expects to see a winning team, just that they really, really want one.

So, as the NHL Network would say, is this the year? In terms of scoring points, no. In terms of cracking the top eight, no. In terms of being a pushover? Absolutely not. These Islanders do have a few things going for them... and here they are.

- Nobody knows them yet. Scott Gordon is new to the NHL, and most opposing coaches are not sure what to expect. We've all heard about the Isles rebuilding themselves as a "speed" team, but with so many veterans in the lineup, who really knows for sure how they'll look? Even if it's out of necessity, that the Islanders can give opponents a number of different looks does work in their favor.

- They never quit. One thing you have to say about the Islanders is that they don't give up, even when they're playing for nothing and they're down four goals. Just because Ted Nolan's gone doesn't mean the team is going to go soft. Gordon might not be the disciplinarian Nolan was, but word is that Gordon's a very vocal coach, meaning he's not going to tolerate lazy play.

- They'll have support. People love to dump on the Islanders and their fanbase. Some of the criticism is justified, but a lot of it isn't. Hockey fans on Long Island are dying for a team they can be proud of. They might not have that yet, but with the Islanders' aggressive marketing and ticket promotions, they'll be looking at crowds of at least 12,000 on the worst of nights. Compared with where we've been, that's not bad.

- The young players will only get better. Josh Bailey is likely to play nine games in an Islander uniform this year. That's a great head start for an 18-year-old. But the other young players who just signed one-way contracts, like Frans Nielsen and Bruno Gervais, will have a full season to not only get acclimated to the NHL, but start to get extremely comfortable. There's a decent chance this team gels by March or so and starts to play a pretty good spoiler role. Even if it doesn't happen, at least next year's team will have a full year of NHL experience.

Now, those of us who have followed the Islanders for a long time can pretty much tell how this season is going to play out. They know because the same thing happens pretty much every year. The Islanders are going to start out doing well, ending October in the East's top eight. Over November and December, they're going to have ups and downs, but will steady out and remain in the top ten. They'll crap out on the West Coast, like they always do, and come home and get those points back. At the All-Star Break, they'll be within six points of a playoff spot. Sounds familiar? It should.

The key to any Islanders season is mid February through early March. This is where the team has to figure out if it's a buyer or a seller. It's been hard to tell lately. In 2005-06, they waived the white flag and dumped off Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel. In 2006-07, they sold the farm to get Ryan Smyth. Last year, they did nothing and collapsed in March. This year? Although they'll be situated fairly well in the standings, Garth Snow will see the opportunity to improve his team over the long haul by dumping off some veterans. And unlike last year, he'll take advantage of the opportunity. As the veterans leave and the not-quite-ready Sound Tigers fill in the gaps, the Islanders will slip. They'll play well, but will lose lots of close games after which the other team will say things like, "They've got a lot of energy," and "They've got a lot of good young talent over there."

Will it be enough to land in the draft lottery? Islander fans don't want to admit it, but they sure hope so. But be careful what you wish for, Islander Country. As Scotty Hockey ominously predicted, the NHL could very well decide to screw the Islanders to ensure John Tavares goes to Toronto. Could you script a worse ending? Ugh.

So let's forget that scenario. Let's not look at this season as an investment into our future. Let's enjoy it for what it is - the chance to watch our boys play hard for 82 games. If they do great, that's great. If they're awful, so be it. Me, I'm just thankful hockey is back.

A Few Things

1) As per TSN.ca, Josh Bailey is going to start the season on the Islanders' roster. The Islanders have to make a decision on Bailey's future before he plays his tenth game; either he'll stay on the big club all year or he'll return to Windsor and captain the Spitfires, his OHL team. I see him returning to juniors, but it doesn't hurt to get him some exposure early on. One writer - I can't remember who - suggested keeping Bailey on the Island to start the season would be tantamount to a publicity stunt; after all, seven of the eight players picked ahead of Bailey are beginning the season in the NHL. I'm not sure that writer isn't onto something. But for now, we have to take this for what it is and see how Bailey develops.

2) It hasn't been heavily advertised, but NHL Center Ice is doing a free preview until the 17th. So while all your buddies watch baseball tomorrow, remember that you can watch every NHL game for free as long as your cable provider offers Center Ice. I'm still on the fence about ordering this year, but I probably will.

3) For the first time in this blog's history, we're actually advertising a live blog! We're doing the Isles-Devils game on Friday night (or, at least I am). Should be a rollicking good time, so feel free to drop on by if you'd like.

Zach's 2008-09 Predictions...

Much like my counterpart Bryan (and every fan with a computer and a knowledge of the game), I present to you my 2008-09 NHL predictions... exactly 67 minutes before the puck drops on the season.

EAST

1. Montreal

2. Pittsburgh

3. Tampa Bay

4. NY Rangers

5. Washington

6. Boston

7. Flyers

8. Buffalo

9. Ottawa

10. NJ Devils

11. Carolina

12. Florida

13. Toronto

14. NY Islanders

15. Atlanta

1) Montreal still has the best power play in the game. Remember how they lost Sheldon Souray and were still the best one? Losing Mark Streit is nothing to them. Someone else will step up. 2) It takes a lot for me to not pick my Rangers as 1st in the division, but for the first year in 3 seasons I'm taking the high road and going with my head and picking the Penguins. 3) Tampa Bay is the best team in that division. Steven Stamkos will score 40 goals. 4) Vastly improved defense should keep the Rangers in games while the offense scores 2.5 goals per game. 5) Theodore is a weaker goalie than Huet, Federov is a year older, and their one solid d-man is a kid who has had one good year. Yes, Ovechkin is the best player in the world, but Washington will win and lose 6-5, 5-4 games all year. 6) Don't know why I picked Boston over Ottawa. I love Tim Thomas. This is probably a mistake, I admit it. Maybe a trade deadline pick-up of a defenseman will help. 7) Flyers are a solid team with questionable goaltending (Marty Biron) who play in a tough division. 8) Buffalo is fast, has good goaltending, and manageable defense. I think they'll sneak in.

9/10) I think this might be the year Ottawa and the Devils miss the playoffs. The East is very tough to pick this year (as it was last year). If Ottawa doesn't shore up their goaltending, they have 2 backups leading them this year. Brodeur, on the other hand, is a year older and still have weak defense in front of him. The Devils always pull out wins, but they didn't improve in the offseason and I see them missing the playoffs. 11) Carolina is stuck with a small budget, making acquisitions hard. Cam Ward hasn't proven anything since the Cup run in '06. Erik Cole is gone. Eric Staal is fantastic. Brind'Amour is hurt. Pitkanen is a step up on the PP though. 12) Florida is one of the worst organizations in sports history. While Cory Stillman is a great acquisition and Tomas Vokoun is a Top 5 goalie in the NHL, Bryan McCabe has nothing left besides a big contract, and the rest of the team (except Bouwmeester and Horton) are busts. 13) Besides Antropov and Blake, who's going to score in Toronto? Ryan Hollweg? Jeff Finger? Their saving grace is Vesa Toskala (no pun intended). 14) The Islanders won't be as bad as everyone thinks. Okay, they might. Doug Weight can no longer carry the weight of a team on his shoulders (pun sort of intended). Okposo, Comeau, and and Tambellini should have good starter years. Maybe Josh Bailey sees action. Atleast they won't be as bad as 15) Atlanta. A question mark in goal, two good defenseman (one of whom even the Kings didn't want to trade for), and a skilled forward do not a playoff team make.

WEST

1. Detroit

2. Anaheim

3. Colorado

4. Dallas

5. Chicago

6. San Jose

7. Edmonton

8. Phoenix

9. Minnesota

10. Vancouver

11. Calgary

12. Nashville

13. St. Louis

14. Columbus

15. Los Angeles

1) Let's face it: Detroit never gets bad. When a Federov or Shanahan leaves, a Zetterberg and Datsyuk steps up. When they're gone, Filppula and Helm are ready. Adding Hossa is huge for the offense. 2) Anaheim has improved over last year and should win a dogfight in the Pacific. They had a great regular season last year, just started slow. 3) If healthy, Colorado has a dynamic offense. Sakic, Svatos, Wolski, Stastny, Smith, Guite, even Darcy Tucker. They have 7 serviceable defensemen, although no studs. Maybe with Raycroft and Budaj splitting time, their goaltending holes won't shine as brightly. 4) A great goaltending, 3 stud d-men, and a great offense are going to lead Dallas. 5) Years of horrendous hockey has finally paid of for Chicago. Pat Kane, Jon Toews, and a strong D will help this team beat up on the weakened Central division. If Huet fails in goal, Antti Niemi is ready to go in his stead. 6) San Jose is again good, and with a much better, Dan Boyle-Rob Blake duo on the blueline. Nabokov might wear out at the end from too many games, but they'll easily make the playoffs. 7) Edmonton plays in a weak division, and did improve greatly. Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano should be great, as should Ales Hemsky, Cole, and a returning Shawn Horcoff. What? Souray is back? Pick him up on your fantasy team since everyone else forgot about him. Dustin Penner is an overpaid bum, but he has a supporting cast that overshadows him. 8) I'll go out on a limb and say the Coyotes, led by Olli Jokinen, Peter Mueller and Shane Doan will have a great offense. Dan Carcillo is not just a fighter, he can score. Marty Hanzal and Daniel Winnik also should have breakout years. And with rookies Mueller, Kyle Turris, Viktor Tikhonov, and Mikkel Boedker (who I don't know if he made the team or not... I know Tikhonov did), I get overwhelmed thinking of the young guns on this team. Their D isn't that good (Jovanoski is one of the most overpaid players since Penner. Sauer, Hale, and Morris are good but not stars). However, Ilya Bryzgalov is a gem in net for them. Oh, and you can get 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, and 4 sodas at their home opener for $79 total.

9) I hate Minnesota. I hate their ugly, Christmas-inspired uniforms. I hate their coach and I hate his trapping system. I hate Marion Gaborik. I do love Brent Burns though. And I think these guys might sneak into the playoffs due to the insane parity in the Northwest division. They have a few good forwards (Mikko Koivu, P.M. Bouchard, and don't forget Owen Nolan), and decent D led by Burns, and 2 overrated but alright goaltenders. However, I see them on the outside looking in this year. Originally I had them as 8th, but am moving them down. 10) Vancouver has an amazing goaltender, a good D, and no forwards. Unless they win every game 1-0 or 2-1, I don't see them making the playoffs. 11) Nashville has nosedived. Yes, Dan Ellis is good in goal, but they really put all their eggs into one inexperienced basket when they traded Chris Mason to St. Louis. Radulov was their star playmaker, and he will be scoring tons of goals in Russia this year. 12) When will St. Louis make the jump? Maybe next year, guys, maybe next year. Chock full of 1st round picks, including Erik Johnson and his torn ACL. Legace/Mason make a good team, but I'm afraid that while they will be competitive, it won't be the year for them. 13) Trust me, Blue Jacket fans, Fedor Tyutin and Christian Backman are not great players. While Pascal Leclaire is a fantastic goalie (as is waiting-in-the-wings Steve Mason), the team only has a few good forwards (Nash, Husselius) and a very porous backline. 14) A star goalie, a star D, and a star forward. Didn't the Rangers have that every year they missed the playoffs in the 1990's and 2000's? Sorry, Flames. Your ship sailed in 2004. 15) The LA Kings might not even have enough salary on the books to be able to field a team in 2008-09. Their goaltending fleet is led by Jason LaBarberra, and their best D (Jack Johnson) is a year away from being great. Frolov, Kopitar, and Dustin Brown are excellent, but one line won't win you that many games in the new NHL.

Playoffs

In the East, I see the Rangers or Canadiens escaping. The Rangers have a better goalie (although Carey Price might have the Patrick Roy-like season everyone up in Quebec wants him to have), but they Habs have a great offense. Montreal has also one a Stanley Cup in every decade except this one. So as not to seem like a homer, I'll pick the Montreal Canadiens to win the Eastern Conference, although if the Rangers make the Finals I'll give myself credit as well.

It doesn't matter though, because no one is beating the Sean Avery's Dallas Stars en route to the Stanley Cup. Avery is a great addition to the team. He is like Steve Ott, except he scores. Avery, Brendan Morrow, Mike Modano, Brad Richard, Lou Erikkson, Fabian Brunnstrom, Jere Lehtinen, Joel Lundqvist, Mike Ribeiro. That's 9 awesome forwards. Imagine what a deadline pick up can do for them? Phillipe Boucher, Sergei Zubov, and Stephane Robidas get the job done on D, and they have 4 to 5 other guys who are solid NHL players ready if anything happens to one of them. Marty Turco is vastly underrated, and while Tobias Stephan (one NHL game) is an inexperienced backup, Turco should carry the weight of the team.

Stars over Canadiens/Rangers in 6. Mark it down!

Meet Kirill Petrov...

If you read Newsday today, you would have thought that Mike Milbury was fired from his job for no reason, and that Garth Snow became GM of the Islanders by sleeping with Charles Wang. Articles by Greg Logan today and yesterday questioned Snow (somewhat rightfully), and the readers who sent in "daily rants" seemed like an angry mob looking for blood.

Let's get one thing straight. Garth Snow traded down 4 spots to take Josh Bailey. Mike Milbury would definitely have drafted Nikita Filatov or Luke Schenn in the 5th spot, and then would have immediately traded him to the Penguins for Adam Hall and a 2009 6th round pick.

By the way, Josh Bailey is the second best player the Islanders got in the 2008 draft. The first best is Kirill Petrov, taken 73rd in the draft. Remember last year when the Rangers took Alex Cherepanov at 17th when he probably could have gone 3rd or 4th overall? He slid so far because teams were wary of him being able to transfer from Russia within a few years. (Yes, teams also worried about his work ethic.)

With Petrov, he might never come here. Ever. He makes a boatload of money in Russia and is completely content playing there. However, if you take into account raw talent and skill, he was Top 10 in the draft, probably around 8th. If he does ever come from Russia, the Islanders have an incredible talent on their hands. The only reason they were able to draft Petrov was because they stockpiled so many picks (13, the most of any team in the '08 draft) that they were able to "waste" one on a prospect who might never see a North American rink.

Without further ado, the highlight video...

Now, as a logical, smart, street-wise Ranger fan, I hope he never comes here. Oh, and we talk about Mike Milbury way too much on this blog.

Islander Draft Thoughts & Site News

Real quick, just wanted to state that we have our own domain now! You can now access The Rivalry at http://www.nyhockeyrivalry.com/. The changeover is, to our knowledge, complete; however, if you have a bookmark at the old Blogspot address, it'll redirect you to the new domain. We also added a Google search that will let you search this site as well as the Web in general. The site isn't totally indexed yet, so it doesn't really work right now, but in time you'll be able to search the site as opposed to searching through our million tags. We just made our hundredth post, and the site is running as smoothly as ever heading into free agency. Hooray for us.

Anyway. Getting to the Islanders' performance at this weekend's Draft. The reason why I don't follow the draft or read the Central Scouting reports is because the truth about any draft is that it takes years to see who really "won". As such, there is no sense getting all worked up about things that are in no way certain. So the Islanders passed on Nikita Filatov for Josh Bailey. Does it really mean anything now? In three years, we can worry about it. I get that Islander fans have been burned in the past and don't want to go down that road again, but there comes a time when you have to have faith in your GM. Now would be a good time to trust in Garth Snow. We're not dealing with grinders and one-year contracts here. Snow hasn't screwed up a draft yet; until he does, he should get the benefit of the doubt.

I, for one, think Snow had the right idea. Get as many picks as possible in a deep draft, then see what happens. If Josh Bailey was really their guy from the beginning, that's wonderful; even if he wasn't, the Islanders were smart to take this approach. Besides, if they hadn't acquired all of the extra picks, the Islanders wouldn't have been able to take a flier on Kirill Petrov. And while Islander fans will point out ad nauseum that Josh Bailey was only the 14th highest-ranked skater in North America, Petrov was actually the second-highest ranked skater in Europe. Not bad. Figure that at least one of these guys will be solid players in the NHL, and if they both make it big, all the better for the Islanders.

Again, it doesn't pay to kill a team for their draft moves right after the draft. So let's allow time to see how right (or wrong) Snow was for trading down. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out. Besides, if the Islanders have a lousy 2008-09 season, they'll have a shot at John Tavares - and that's one guy the Islanders won't pass up.

Worked Through the Draft...

Much like Gary Bettman, I worked throughout the whole draft. However, I'm not (over)paid by the NHL, the people I work with don't hate me, I don't have to wear a tie at work, and I know how to handle a microphone.

Since I worked, I missed most of the draft, but I did get to hear/see the last few picks on XM in my car and on Versus (via TSN) in my house while watching topless, on my bed.

I caught up, don't worry. I read TSN for the trade analysis (RJ Umberger is worth a 1st round pick but Olli Jokinen is not?); I read Bryan's blog below mine for a play-by-play (I didn't plan on reading it, but like a Ben Affleck movie, it just sucked me in); and I checked the Rangers web site and TSN's for a bit about the players.

Oh, I also read Greg Logan's blog and I think Garth Snow did the right move by trading down and acquiring all those picks and still getting their guy at 9th that they would have taken at 5th. But the question is, why take him at 5th? He didn't seem to be the 5th most impressive player in the draft, seems like a poor man's Scott Gomez to me. Luke Schenn or Nikita Filatov seemed like better choices.

Rangers didn't do much, but you can't blame them for drafting an offensive defenseman who by all accounts could have gone as early as 14th or 15th. I guess they didn't want to give up their 3rd rounder to move up to take a guy they got 5 spots later.

The winner of the night was Phoenix, I think. Mikkel Boedker was a strong pick at 8, and Viktor Tikhonov was a great pick as well. He is very excited about playing in America, and I'm pretty sure he can come here next year. He also was named best forward at the World Juniors. Two first round picks, and they still got Olli Jokinen for a bunch of mid-level players. A fantastic night for the Coyotes.

Oh, and if the Dolans actually are forced to give up ownership of the Rangers (not gonna happen), I wonder if I can be on the waiting list for season tickets at their new arena, the Central Park Ice Skating Rink.