Thursday, April 30, 2009

Bryan's Playoff Predictions - Conference Semifinals

You may recall that, prior to the first round of the playoffs, Zach and I made our predictions for the conference quarterfinals. How did we do? Let's find out. Our scoring system is as follows: one point for the correct team, one point for the correct number of games, and one point for correctly picking an upset. And, once again, the loser of the playoff prediction game will donate $100 to charity.

 - Zach: Boston over Montreal in 5 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), New Jersey over Carolina in 6 (0), Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 6 (2), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Columbus over Detroit in 6 (0), Vancouver over St. Louis in 4 (2), Chicago over Calgary in 5 (1). Total: 6 points.

 - Bryan: Boston over Montreal in 6 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), Carolina over New Jersey in 6 (2), Philadelphia over Pittsburgh in 7 (0), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Detroit over Columbus in 6 (1), Vancouver over St. Louis in 7 (1), Chicago over Calgary in 6 (2). Total: 7 points.

OK, so we didn't have great showings in Round One. In my defense, I actually picked Washington over the Rangers in 7 in our sidebar poll before the playoffs began, but talked myself into the Rangers when it came time for actual predictions. Whoops.

Anyway, without further adieu, here are my picks for the second round. We'll be employing the same scoring system as the first round.

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston vs. (6) Carolina - Boston in 7
This series will not be the walkover the Bruins-Canadiens series was. The main difference is that Carolina has a hot goalie in Cam Ward who has already won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy. They also have Eric Staal, who is becoming more and more clutch by the day. Lastly, Carolina has momentum on their side, while the Bruins have been resting for a week. However, Boston has a more talented team than Carolina and it will show as this series unfolds. Carolina will win at least one of the first two games, probably the first one, and should be 2-2 after four games. Which is wonderful, except that it takes four wins to take the series, and with two of the final three in Boston, the Bruins should prevail.

(2) Washington vs. (4) Pittsburgh - Washington in 7
I'm going with Washington for three main reasons. First, against the Rangers, they proved they can play a physical series and win. Second, they made Henrik Lundqvist look mortal. Third, and most importantly, they have a red-hot young goalie named Simeon Varlamov. Is it foolish to put so much stock into a 21-year-old goalie? Not at all. He's not going to be overwhelmed by the pressure of the playoffs, nobody knows anything about him, he's got tons of momentum, and he's playing ridiculously well. Sure, it's not hard to hold the offensively inept Rangers to under two goals a game, but he also made the big saves when the Capitals needed him to. Having said all that, it won't be easy against a Penguins team that played a similarly physical series against Philadelphia. The real winners in this series, though, are the NHL and Versus - especially if this series goes seven games.

Western Conference
(2) Detroit vs. (8) Anaheim - Anaheim in 6
Yes, I am aware that I picked Anaheim to get swept in the first round. Why, then, would Anaheim beat the Detroit Red Wings in the second round? Well, it's more of a hunch than anything else. But again, goaltending is key. Strange as it is to say, I trust Jonas Hiller more than I trust Chris Osgood. Besides, the Red Wings haven't played since last Thursday. Since then, the Ducks beat San Jose twice and forced overtime in a third game. Even though Detroit swept Columbus in convincing fashion, it's hard to make the argument that Detroit is playing better than Anaheim right now. At worst, they're even. But if you consider that Anaheim is riding high after beating the Sharks in a series that just ended on Monday, things look a little bit different. Hence, I'm taking the Ducks in an upset.

(3) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago - Vancouver in 7
For the third time in the four second-round series, I'll fall back on the old playoff adage - when in doubt, look at the goaltending matchups. Nikolai Khabibulin has won a Stanley Cup and has played well so far for the Blackhawks. But Roberto Luongo is one of the game's truly elite talents and should be able to play his best hockey in the playoffs, having missed a portion of the regular season. Besides, even though Luongo has played well in the playoffs in his young playoff career, he hasn't had that huge run that makes the great goalies even greater. The Blackhawks are no joke, though, and they'll make Luongo's job all the more difficult. I'd say the Blackhawks are significantly better on offense, but the goalies make all the difference in the playoffs. That's why the Canucks will be slightly better than a fine Chicago team.

How Good Are Predictions, Part II...

Each year, I write down a bunch of predictions from "industry experts," just to see how close they are. I also write down mine to compare. Last September, I posted the results on this page. I figured that we have some off-days now between playoff rounds, and since both local teams (and even the Devils) are out, why not do this post now as opposed to September.

Last year, for the record, ESPN, Newsday's Steve Zipay, and I all had 24 points. The big winner was Dwayne Kessel, aka "Eklund," from some Internet site that spouts "rumors," with 27 points.

This year, the combatants are once again Eklund, and myself. Joining the mix are Newsday's Mark Herrman, Sports Illustrated, and our Islanders' writer Bryan. Representing a once-anonymous ESPN will be E.J. Hradek.

(Scoring: 1 point for having a team correctly missing or making the playoffs; 2 points for predicting their exact position in the Conference.)

6th Place
I am sadly bringing up the rear on this campaign. A few gambles that I took (Tampa Bay winning the Southeast, Devils missing the playoffs, Colorado winning the Northwest, Edmonton and Phoenix making the playoffs) didn't exactly pan out. In fact, of 30 positions in the NHL, the only one I hit on the nose was Minnesota at 9th in the West. Sad, sad, sad predicting. I even had the Islanders coming in 14th in the East, ahead of Atlanta. I actually only predicted 1 division winner (Detroit, 1st in the West). It also appears my Dallas versus either Montreal or the Rangers in the Finals won't happen. In fact, I even said that Sean Avery would be sipping from the Stanley Cup this June.
19 points

5th Place
I shouldn't feel so bad, though. E.J. Hradek, who works for ESPN and hosts NHL Live on XM and the NHL Network, only beat me by 3 points. He only predicted 2 division winners (Red Wings and Capitals). The also picked the Devils to miss the playoffs, as well as Boston, both of whom won their division. He predicted Edmonton to win the Northwest. I still think my Colorado prediction was better! His bold prediction of Detroit over Pittsburgh in the Finals still can happen, though.
23 points

4th Place
Newcomer Mark Herrman, subbing for Zipay this year, ended in 4th. He nailed the Rangers in 7th, but that's about it. He picked 3 division winners, all in the wrong order (Washington, Detroit, San Jose). Dallas winning the Pacific instead of San Jose was his downfall. His Detroit prediction for the Cup Finals looks good, but Montreal will not be joining them. Better luck next year.
23 points

3rd Place
The bronze medal goes to an anonymous person at Sports Illustrated, who nailed 3 spots dead-on (Atlanta, 13th; Islanders, 15th; Nashville, 10th). They predicted 2 divison winners (Washington, Detroit), but 2 of their choices for the division didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Dallas). SI did correctly choose 7 of 8 Eastern conference playoff teams, a feat only duplicated by Bryan. Their folly: Ottawa at 8th, Carolina at 9th.
26 points

2nd Place
Our own Bryan had a very strong showing, hitting 5 spots correctly (Capitals, 2nd; Philadelphia, 5th; Atlanta, 13th; his beloved Islanders, 15th; Edmonton, 11th in West). He had 4 division winners. His two misses: Penguins to win the Atlantic and Calgary to win the Northwest. His only East playoff team to miss was Tampa Bay, whom he predicted to come in 7th. They ended 14th, and his 14th team, Carolina, came in 6th. Not bad for a rookie, although his Finals prediction of San Jose hoisting the Cup at Madison Square Garden will not happen. Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.
27 points!

1st Place
It pains me, but that Eklund guy from that website again won our competition. His Eastern conference wasn't that great: his only 2-point play was Washington in 2nd, and he picked the Devils and Carolina to miss the playoffs while putting Ottawa and Buffalo in. But he made up for it in the West, correctly guessing the final positions of San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. He did pick Edmonton to win their division instead of Vancouver, but he was one of only two (with Hradek) to pick Vancouver in the playoffs. He also was the only person to think San Jose would win the West, as the other 5 of us picked Detroit 1st in the conference. However, his long-term thinking is off: Both the Habs and Sharks lost in the 1st round and will not meet up in June.
28 points

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Requiem for a Team...

Superstitious as I am, to prepare for tonight's Game 7, I did what I did for their last Game 7: Went to my fourth-grade class, headed to the Sunrise Mall, changed the lyrics to a song on the radio in my mom's Volvo to words about the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup, and sat down in my den to watch the game.

What can I say about the game itself? Not much. You watched it, I watched it, we know what happened. A great defensive play by Ryan Callahan turned into a double-deflection. Henrik Lundqvist was in position to stop a shot, but he couldn't get over to stop the freak deflection. Not his fault, not Callahan's, not Dan Girardi's.

I am pretty positive that when the players were gathering around Lundqvist at the end of the game, they were saying, "Sorry. We know you're the best in the game. Wish we could help you out. You don't deserve this." And I'm pretty sure he regretted signing a multi-year deal to be here.

I didn’t want to say anything earlier just in case the Rangers pulled out a Game 7 victory in Washington, but since that dream bubble has burst, I will say it: I had the same feeling going into Game 7 tonight that I did going into Game 6 in Buffalo in May 2007: defeat.

I did not, however, have this feeling for Game 5 in Pittsburgh, when I thought the Rangers could win. My theory was, win Game 5, Game 6 would be a guarantee, and Game 7 a 50/50 chance.

However, after Buffalo won Game 5 in overtime, you knew what would happen. Beaten, the Rangers would return to MSG and put up a half-hearted effort, and the Sabres would pounce upon them. And that did happen, with the Rangers going down 4-2 in the 2nd before a futile third period brought the score to a respectable 5-4.

The difference in Game 5 in Buffalo and Game 6 at MSG this past Sunday? Chris Drury scored in Buffalo.

I won’t blame this series or this season on Chris Drury. He is given 1st line money because of a great opportunity he was given: He beat the Rangers when he tied the game with 7.7 seconds left, then became one of the 3 best free agent forwards available less than 2 months later. Fact is, he is a 2nd line player. It’s not his fault that Glen Sather thought his career-high 69 points (37 G, 32 A) in 2006-07 was worthy of Jaromir Jagr/Joe Thornton money.

However, it again might be dark times ahead for the Rangers. As I’ve mentioned before, this team is handcuffed with Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, and Michal Rozsival. I’m actually getting sick of writing it, but here goes one more time:

This team has these insane salaries on the books for 5 more years (Gomez, Redden) and 3 more years (Rozsival). Once again, it isn’t their faults they’re getting paid this much money. Gomez got lucky also - him, Drury, and Daniel Briere were the top free agent forwards that summer, and he capitalized. The only this Redden is at fault for is accepting NY’s offer when another team offered him the same exact contract, but he wanted to play in NY (I can only guess that team was Toronto, though it is unconfirmed). Rozsival liked the Rangers for giving him a chance to comeback after the lockout, and Sather apparently thought his lax defensive play and his over-passing on the power play was worthy of Rob Blake/Sergei Zubov money.

No GM in their right mind would accept a trade for these underachievers (or I guess they are just “achieving” to their potential, which isn’t very high). In a salary cap world, who would take a $7M center until 2014 with a 5.9 shooting percentage (including empty netters) and who can’t crack 45 assists? Who would want a $6.5M defenseman with 3 goals and limited defensive skills? Is a $5M player who is responsible for more shorthanded goals against than power play goals for going to be high on anyone’s summer trading list?

Be sure, the darkest days are coming if these salaries are still on the books. No good free agents can be signed when the team teeters so close to the edge of the salary cap. That is $18.5M that can’t be alloted to re-signing Paul Mara or Derek Morris instead, or can’t be used to make a move at a real first line player, either via free agency or a trade.

Think Atlanta would accept Scott Gomez for Ilya Kovalchuk? Get real.

I had said numerous times that $39M can't buy you heart in this Emerald City. Tonight, Redden proved that. He actually did have one good play - I told my girlfriend to write down that after 8 pre-season games, 81 regular season games for him, and 7 playoff games, he finally had a good play. He then went and ruined everything by standing in front of Sergei Federov and refusing to drop down to block a shot. Apparently, Drury isn't the one with the broken hand, Redden is, as he also couldn't throw his stick out fast enough to try to block the shot once he decided he was too precious to drop down.

Five more years of Gomez. Five more years of Redden.

Something's gotta give.

Rangers Eliminated in 7

At 2:59 AM this morning, Zach sent me a text stating how he was going to write a retrospective about the Rangers' season after tonight's game. He sent me the title and everything. Clearly, he wasn't too optimistic about heading to the second round.

And with good reason.

After leading the series 3-1, the Rangers are going home early. In front of what has to be one of the loudest crowds I've ever heard, the Capitals emerged in the third period and defeated the Rangers by a score of 2-1. The Rangers were in control for much of the first two periods, but the Capitals were too much in the end. Sergei Fedorov scored with just under five minutes left and the Caps didn't let up; instead of sitting on their lead like so many teams do, Washington put so much pressure on the Rangers that they weren't even able to pull Henrik Lundqvist for an extra skater.

Zach will be by later on with more thoughts. Certainly, he'll point out that Wade Redden just sort of stood there as Fedorov shot the game-winning goal into the net. But let the record show that this was a team effort. Every player did his part to lose this series. From poor games by Lundqvist in Games 5 and 6 to the completely invisible play of team "leaders" Chris Drury and Scott Gomez, everyone is to blame. And that includes John Tortorella, who was so quick to bash Sean Avery for inappropriate behavior prior to becoming Rangers coach, but at least Avery wasn't squirting water at fans behind the bench during the middle of a playoff game.

Clearly, there will be changes. There has to be. But with the Rangers right up against the cap, it's hard to see the Rangers fielding a better team next season.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Brashear Suspended 6 Games...

Donald Brashear has been suspended for 6 games. One game was for his pre-game shove of Colton Orr, the other 5 for intending to injure Blair Betts.

This makes his intent to injure only 5/6th of the seriousness of Sean Avery's comments about Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert, you know, the girl in her underwear from Old School.

From Colin Campbell: “It is also my opinion that the hit was delivered late and targeted the head of his opponent, causing significant injury."

So for getting two suspensions in one game, Brashear was given 6 games, or, to him, 18 minutes.

The Good News...

Not going to dwell on the debauchery that was Game 6. I said all along that they wouldn't blow Game 6 at home up 3-2, and they made me look like fools.

However, there is good news.

The Rangers scored 3 goals on a backup goaltender!

Okay, so now Simeon Var-lah-mov is now the starter in Washington, but his goals against average was like 0.75 going into this game. He gave up 1 goal, 0 goals, 2 goals, and 0 goals. So they got 3 past him, albeit one of them when the game was a wash and it was 5-2.

Still, 3 goals is 3 goals, and if Henrik Lundqvist reads his own scouting report, they have a chance to win Game 7. Maybe not a strong chance, but a chance indeed. If they can score 3 goals and he can stop all but 2, well, you know how scoring works.

For the record, here is the scouting report on Lundqvist...

"Great goalie. Goes side to side better than any goaltender in NHL history. Flops down early in anticipation of a low shot, leaving the entire top of the net open."

* * *

Here is a list of players who played every regular season game for the Rangers: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky, Marc Staal, Colton Orr, Markus Naslund, and Nik Zherdev.

Yes, Colton Orr played 87 games this season, coached by Tom Renney and John Tortorella. Does Jim Schoenfeld not like him that he would sit Orr in the playoffs when that goon Donald Brashear is out there?

Capitals fan or not, you can't agree with how Brashear went up and randomly attacked Blair Betts. He did it at MSG in 2007 also when he went up and sucker punched Aaron Ward in the mouth.

Today, he nails Betts for no reason other than he was angry about something that had nothing to do with Betts, and he gets a 2-minute penalty. You can guarantee that if someone did something like that against the Penguins, they would get a 10-game suspension.

And here is where Schoenfeld erred. Without Orr in the lineup, and without proper officiating, Brashear had the chance to do this. Nobody was going to make him pay. Paul Mara ran at him, pushed him a little, grappled with him, didn't drop the gloves, and got a 2-minute minor of his own.

No one was in the lineup to offer accountability. The Rangers had very little injuries this year (I believe they had the 2nd least man-games lost this season). Some of the credit has to go to Orr, a great fighter who isn't afraid to pummel someone into oblivion. No one like Dion Phaneuf or Chris Pronger is going to take a run at Scott Gomez (but really, why would you?) if Orr was there, because they have to answer to him.

(Do you think Shaone Morrison would've bitten Brandon Dubinsky if Orr was there to beat him down afterwards?)

When Gomez injured Ryan Miller a few months ago (on accident), no one made him pay. If Derek Roy or Maxim Afinogenov ran into Lundqvist, they, or someone on their team, would have to lose a fight to Orr.

Orr needs to be in the lineup. Maybe Schoenfeld wanted offense and saw Orr's 4 career goals. Maybe he doesn't know that he is there to keep the peace.

Someone should also show him Orr's scouting report before Game 7...

"Can't skate well. Has better accuracy with a left hook than a wrist shot. Will fight anyone on the other team. With him in the lineup, no one will take runs at your top penalty killer or star goaltender, and no one will bite your second-line center. Better than Aaron Voros. Don't sit him the playoffs in favor of aforementioned player, who should be a healthy scratch."

* * *

And finally, let's give it up for Tom Poti, who apparently had his first power play point ever at MSG, and Wade Redden.

Here's to you, Wade Redden. You are stealing 39 million dollars from the fans of the Rangers over the next 6 years, and when your team is down 2-1 in a clinching game, and you get gifted power play time for some reason, what do you do? Lazily reach for a pass, miss it, and slowly chase the puck back into your own end.

Bravo. Bravo. Bravo.

You are hockey's version of Stephon Marbury, with one major difference. He hurt his team by stealing money and not suiting up; you steal money and you play.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Wow

Zach titled his last post, "Saw That Coming". This one should be titled, "Should Have Seen That Coming".

On Friday night, my wife and I had the family over for a barbecue. My father-in-law is a Rangers fan, and a cynical one at that. As the Rangers faltered in Game 5, he remarked to me that he thought they were going to end up losing the series. I told him, flat out, there was no way the Rangers were going to lose this series. However, we did agree that the Rangers' entire team is Henrik Lundqvist. I went as far as to joke that Lundqvist should win the Hart Trophy every year.

Now? Turns out he may be right. As I type this, the Rangers just scored a goal to make the game 5-2 in favor of Washington. For the second straight game, Henrik Lundqvist is watching the third period from the bench in a Rangers hat. Lundqvist wasn't very sharp today, nor was he on Friday; it's no surprise that the Rangers lost these two games.

Suddenly, the Rangers are in deep doo-doo. They'll be traveling to a hot crowd in Washington to play Game 7 on the road. The Capitals were 29-9-3 at home this season. Lundqvist is a mess. The usual suspects still aren't showing up. The one saving grace is that the Rangers will get their coach back on Tuesday - but they had John Tortorella behind the bench in Game 5 and still got blown out.

Long story short? The Rangers have their work cut out for them. If they don't advance to the second round - a scenario that's looking very likely - there will be plenty of blame to be passed around. And there's not a single person in the entire organization who should be absolved.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Saw That Coming...

People were getting mad at me for telling them the Rangers would be crushed today, and lo and behold, they were. I hope I'm right in saying that they would also win at MSG on Sunday. And I'm glad that if Henrik Lundqvist was going to have a night off, this was it, in a game the Rangers could afford to lose so long as they remember to show up for Game 6.

What I didn't see coming was 30 year old players not playing the body. When Alex Ovechkin blew by Dan Girardi and Marc Staal to score, I understood it. They are young, they might not know how to play defense. But Chris Drury is 32, Derek Morris is 30. Do they not know to play the puck, do not play the player!

I expect it when Michael Rozsival or Wade Redden make that mistake; they're awful at their jobs. But Morris and Drury? C'mon!

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Rangers Up 3-1, So Let's Talk About Penalties...

You've watched the game, you TiVo-ed Rangers in 60, and you already read all about the game on the Internet.

Let me just say a few things, then...

- - Sean Avery took 2 penalties in the last half of the third period, the first being on a race for the puck by the Capitals' goal line. I think this was a marginal penalty, at best. It didn't look like he actually meant to hit Milan Jurcina. Granted, I might be completely wrong, because lately it seems like Avery "accidentally" hits people a lot. But it truly appears to me that he was turning his body quickly, didn't see Jurcina bending over, and clocked him on accident in the head.

The second penalty, though, when he hit a Capital in the face/neck with his stick, was stupid. Yes, Brian Pothier sold the move like he got shot by a bazooka, but Avery never should have done it. I will stand by Avery and how he plays, but this was a stupid, selfish move. He normally puts his teammates first on the ice, and everything he does is to get under someone's skin or help his linemates, but this was stupid. Instead of hitting Alex Semin or Alex Ovechkin, he has been concentrating on bums like Tom Poti and Pothier.

Shouldn't the first penalty, the punch on Jurcina, maybe been a 4-minute minor since it drew blood? Or is that only for high-sticking calls?

- - Quick sidenote: I remember a Ranger game in Boston that I was at in 2006-07 when both teams had a #68 and a #81, and I thought that was really cool. (For the record, Jurcina, Jaromir Jagr, Marcel Hossa, and Phil Kessel.)

- - Paul Mara also took 2 stupid penalties. The first was an interference call where he laid someone out away from the play. A dumb penalty, probably, but you could see the point in it. He knocked someone hard who could have gotten to the puck when it wrapped around the boards.

The second one, where he pushed someone who was chasing the puck into a corner, was ridiculous. It, like Avery's stick-to-the-head, served no purpose and just put the Rangers into a 2-minute hole where Ovechkin, Semin, or Mike Green could've dented the Rangers.

- - Mike Green took a "good" penalty before. He was exhausted from playing a full power play, and when he let Fred Sjostrom blaze by him, he hooked him and took him down before Sjostrom could get the puck.

While he never should have let him blow by him like that, he took a good penalty because it saved a breakaway and it didn't lead to a penalty shot. Avery's hit on Pothier and Mara's useless shove were bad penalties. If a penalty stops a scoring chance, or teaches someone a lesson not to mess with your teammates, that's fine, and a solid 2-minute penalty kill can help your team. But useless penalties demoralize you and invigorate the other team.

- - By the way, there was a part in the 3rd period when the Capitals were on the power play that made me laugh. Every player on the ice, Capitals, Rangers, were completely beat. The Capitals keep their players (Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Nik Backstrom) on so long that by the 1:50 mark of the power play they are phoning it in; and the Rangers had their PK unit out for so long because the couldn't clear.

The end result: a listless power play that couldn't even pass the puck, and a PK unit that couldn't even stop a weak pass.

* * *

All in all, a huge game, like I said earlier, and a gigantic win. It leaves a barrier now where they can win in Washington Friday, but they don't have to.

They now know that even if they lose Game 5, they can close it out on home ice Sunday.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Big Game...

I know you know this, and I don't mean to state the obvious, but this game tonight is huge.

Regardless of tonight's outcome, I think the Rangers will lose Game 5 Friday night. If the Rangers win, they take a 3-1 lead in the series and can afford to lose a game in Washington, knowing that the series comes back to the Garden for Game 6, where they can put it away.

If they lose, though, tonight, they might be in a bad spot. Of course, the same cliches will be said by Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Henrik Lundqvist, and John Tortorella: "One game at a time, one period at a time, one shift at a time." "It's not a best-of-3 series." "We're tied, we're not out of this." "Anything can happen."

But you know they can't afford to lose this. Not only will momentum swing to Washington, but they'll be in an opposing building for Game 5. Yes, they are 2-0 this week in that city, but you don't want to go into a hostile environment NEEDING a victory. You want to go in there Friday thinking a victory is a luxury, but knowing you'll win on Sunday night if you lose Friday.

And due to a family situation, I sold my tickets to tonight's game and will be watching from my couch. Game 1 I watched when I got home from work that night not knowing the outcome; Game 2 I watched some at home, missed the second and most of the third period, and caught the last 4 minutes at Bryan's house; Game 3 I watched at work and didn't bother watching at home when I saw how it went.

So, the couch it is, and thankfully, the game won't be on Versus. I am also bursting with anticipation on which company will be advertised on the plexiglass behind Lundqvist and Simeon Varlamov.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Controversy In Carolina

Tonight's Devils-Hurricanes game had a bit of a controversial ending. For those who haven't seen the highlights, Carolina broke a 3-3 tie by scoring a goal with 0.2 seconds left. The kicker, though, is that Carolina's Jussi Jokinen bumped into Martin Brodeur just before the deciding shot was fired. As you can imagine, Martin Brodeur - not exactly the most gracious of losers - wasn't very happy, slamming his stick against the ice and the boards as he exited the arena.

You can also imagine how this was treated on the Devils' broadcast. It sounded like a wrestling angle where the bad guy gets screwed over and brings in video evidence to prove their point. They even broke out the NHL rulebook, which proved that it should be a goal; of course, the part about it being a judgment call by the on-ice official and not the review officials was completely ignored. The other part that wasn't mentioned is that the bump took place a full two seconds before the shot was fired and that Brodeur easily should have made the save. Never mind that Jokinen should have had a blocker in his lower back before any other contact even took place.

The announcers went on to state that the referee didn't have to call an interference penalty on Jokinen; they could just reverse the goal and play overtime 5-on-5. That's fine, except you can't prove that the interference definitively caused the goal. If Jokinen bumped Brodeur while the shot was in the air, that'd be one thing. But to ask the referees to disallow a goal just because of incidental contact seconds earlier is ridiculous.

One last thing. If certain players had thrown the same temper-tantrum as Brodeur, they'd be looking at a fairly significant fine. But not Brodeur, the NHL's golden boy, Mr. 552 Wins. Instead, we'll get endless platitudes about his passion and how "all he cares about is winning". Make sure you have a barf bag ready as you watch Game 5 of this series.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Capitals Win, 4-0

After two very impressive road wins, the Rangers returned home. The Garden faithful (and their awesome glow-in-the-dark) ThunderStix welcomed their home team with open arms. Unfortunately, that's about where things peaked, as the good old Rangers showed up.

The announcers kept talking about how the near-goal by Ryan Callahan was the turning point of the game; after all, if that puck went in, Alexander Semin wouldn't have scored and the game would have been tied 1-1. However, the Caps finally brought their A-game to these playoffs. The Rangers, on the other hand, did not.

If you've read this blog for a while, you've probably read Zach's rants about the Tom Renney-led Rangers and how that team has occasionally shown up under the tutelage of John Tortorella. Tonight was one such night. How bad was it? I actually had to check the boxscore to see if Chris Drury played tonight. Turns out he got ten minutes of ice time. I would have checked to see if Scott Gomez play, but I happened to see him on the ice during the pre-game. Wade Redden managed a whopping one shot on goal in 4:30 of power play time. As a whole, the Rangers were 0-for-6 on the power play, even if some of those power plays didn't last for the full two minutes.

The reason for that, of course, is Sean Avery's 18 penalty minutes. By my estimation, at least two of his four minor penalties were unjustified. The truth is, Avery's repuation precedes him and referees will never give him the benefit of the doubt. This was evidenced when John Erskine cross-checked Avery into the goal right in front of the referee, who declined to call a penalty. It'll be interesting to see if Avery is called into Gary Bettman's office tomorrow after his cheap shot at Simeon Varlamov; the hit certainly fell into the category of a message-sending attack when the score was already decided.

This isn't to knock Avery at all. Avery, Callahan and Lundqvist were the only Rangers to act like they cared about winning. But even a great performance by Lundqvist wasn't enough to win. And make no mistake about it, Varlamov was great tonight. Varlamov, whose goalie mask still features the logo of the AHL's Hershey Bears, can confidently get a new paint job, because he's not going anywhere. One of the best parts of the playoffs is seeing young players emerge as legitimate contributors on the NHL level. Being an upgrade over Jose Theodore isn't saying much, but Varlamov has given the Capitals new life in a series that is suddenly looking like it could go the distance.

You'd like to hope the real Rangers show up on Wednesday night. As an unbiased observer, I sure hope they do. And with home-ice advantage on the line, the Rangers should pull out all the stops on Wednesday. So should the Capitals. We should be in store for a great game on Wednesday.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Which Series is This More Like?...

The Capitals won the Southeast Division this year, and are down 2-0. So, which series is this most like?

2005-06 - Southeast-winning Carolina Hurricanes lost the first 2 at home to Montreal, then replaced Martin Gerber in net with Cam Ward. Ward led the 'Canes to victories in the next 4 games, then they went on to win the Stanley Cup.

2006-07 - Southeast-winning Atlanta Thrashers lose the first 2 at home in the series against the Rangers. They lose Game 1 4-3, then replace goalie Kari Lehtonen with Johan Hedberg. Hedberg loses Game 2 by a score of 2-1 (on a freak bounce-shot by Sean Avery), and they go back to Lehtonen for Game 3. They lose that game 7-0, and Hedberg is back in net for the loss in the elimination game, Game 4.

Will Jose Theodore be back in net for Game 3? He accepted responsibility for the loss in Game 1 and wanted a chance to redeem himself, but Caps' coach Bruce Boudreau went with the rookie, Simeon Varlamov. Will he do a switch, even though Varlamov only let in one goal? Hedberg had a decent game in Game 2 but sat the next game.

* * *

That was great defensive coverage by Tom Poti on the Ryan Callahan goal. Poti went to cover Markus Naslund on his right side, and with his left hand, motioned for the other Capitals defenseman to cover Callahan. Thing is, there wasn't another D-man there, Callahan easily accepted a good pass from Naslund, and scored the only goal of the game.

I don't care if you're reading this as a Ranger or Islander fan. Be happy Tom Poti is on neither of these teams anymore.

Matt Gilroy...

I won't dwell much on a player who won't be in a Ranger uniform for another 5 months, but I will add a few notes on Matt Gilroy.

This year, the Rangers have 6 defensemen (regardless of whether or not you think some of them are really "7th d-men").

Next year, the following 4 will still be under contract: Wade Redden (5 more years); Michal Rozsival (3 more years); Dan Girardi (1 more year then UFA); and Marc Staal (1 more year then RFA, will be extended long-term next year).

That leaves Paul Mara and Derek Morris.

So we have 4 under contract, and Corey Potter and Matt Gilroy, both NHL-ready (or will be by the time training camp rolls around). I say Gilroy will be NHL-ready for two reasons: 1) He could have signed in the NHL last year but wanted to play one more year at Boston University so he could win the title and play with his brother and graduate. 2) You don't give a minor-leaguer a $2.5M deal for 2 years.

That leaves 6 defensemen. I'm assuming Potter will be on the big club next year. He's cheap ($542,000 against the cap) and still has a year left on his deal.

But what about Bobby Sanguinetti? He's making $855,000 to stay in the minors. Wouldn't they want him on the team? By all accounts, he will be ready to play in the NHL next year too. There's also a guy named Vladimir Denisov in the AHL who is having a good year and could be a 7th defenseman (will probably serve as an injury call-up though).

And don't count out Paul Mara. He could have signed elsewhere for $3M last offseason, but chose to stay a Ranger for $1.95M. “There was interest from other teams but I wanted to win in New York" is what he said in July when he re-signed. He has also played very well this year, better than he did last year, and you can't deny that someone plays better when he wants to be here as opposed to just collecting a $6.5M paycheck.

So what am I getting at? I'm saying that something will have to give. The four under contract, Gilroy, Potter, Sanguinetti, maybe even Mara, that's a lot of D-men. A trade will have to happen to accomodate everything, and of course, we'll all hope it will be Redden or Rozsival. I think it would have to be Rozsival, because it's hard to move a $30M+ contract when the player has no desire to be good.

Of course, this is Glen Sather we're talking about, the man who got the same player 3 times in a week last July when he signed Aaron Voros and Pat Rissmiller and traded for Dan Fritsche. What he probably will do is trade for another defenseman, sign someone on July 1, and start the season with 9 on the blueline.

Friday, April 17, 2009

A Fact, An Opinion, and a Mistake...

MISTAKE
I think a lot of people erred when they (me included) predicted the Sharks would sweep the Ducks. I think we overlooked the fact that even though these Ducks aren't the same as they were 2 years ago, they still have Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer on the blueline, and Francois Beauchemin is back from injury. Those are 3 big assets to have on a team, and they can have anyone of them on the ice at any given time. Add in Ryan Whitney, and that's a scary defense that not a lot of people took into account.

They sure shut down Joe Thornton today. His only shot came with like a minute left in the game.

For those who didn't catch the end of the game, it was scoreless going into the 3rd period, but the Ducks scored 2 to win it. The Sharks did hit 2 posts in that period though.

OPINION
Ian LaPierre, the "Sean Avery" of the Montreal Canadiens (albeit with less skill and without Avery's stunningly good looks), should be suspended. Tonight, the Bruins scored an empty-net goal to ice the game 4-2, and LaPierre just went and hit him while he was celebrating.

His back wasn't turned like when Dale Hunter attacked Pierre Turgeon in 1993, but there is no place for crap like that in this game. I know they allow fighting in the game, but that is in the heat of the moment (or should only be) and should deter punks like LaPierre from doing that cheap stuff.

He didn't injure Phil Kessel, but he could have, and it was after the play, after a goal, and with nothing to be gained. A one-game suspension should do the trick, like they gave Dan Carcillo in Philadelphia for a useless cheapshot last night.

FACT
The Rangers have been in 5 playoff serieses since the lockout (not including the current one against the Capitals). In those 5 matchups, the team who won Game 1 wo the series.

They lost to the Devils 6-1 in 2005-06. The next season, they beat Atlanta 4-3 and lost to Buffalo 5-2. (I still maintain that if they won Game 5, there was no way Buffalo would have won Game 6 at the Garden that year.) Last year, they beat the Devils 4-1 in Game 1 and then lost to the Penguins 5-4 in the opening of that series.

Not a stone-cold fact, but it's worth noting. Makes you feel a lot better hearing that stat now that they do have that lead though, doesn't it?

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Terms of the Bet...

Bryan and I have made a bet regarding post-season predictions. The loser will have to donate $100 to charity. If I win, then Bryan will give his money to the Rangers' charity, Garden of Dreams. And if Islanders fan Bryan wins, I will donate my money the the Islanders' Children's Foundation.

- One point will be awarded if a series is correctly predicted.
- One additional point will be awarded if the winner is predicted as well as the correct number of games.
- One additional point will be awarded if the winner is predicted and it is an upset (lower-ranked team beating a higher-ranked team).

For example, if Detroit wins in 5, Bryan gets 1 point. If Detroit wins in 6, he gets 2. If Columbus wins in 5, I get 2 points, and if they win in 6 I get 3 points (one for the win, one for correct games, one for being an upset).

If I remember correctly, I got destroyed last year.

Here's hoping for a better post-season, for me and my team.

Fun...

Well, Game 1 was fun, wasn't it?

The Rangers didn't do much offensively but they did capitalize on their chances. At one point, early in the first, my roommate said, "What are the shots, 9-1?" I laughed at her. When they announced that the Rangers had finally gotten their 2nd shot on net at the 15-minute mark, I actually laughed out loud.

Listen, it was a good game. It was fun to watch, very entertaining, and had the desired outcome, atleast for me. But this is a series, not a one-and-done playoff. I don't want to sound too much liek John Tortorella (or Alex Ovechkin), but this is far from over. The Capitals will come out flying Saturday afternoon.

And we all know how the Rangers fare in afternoon games. If my calculations are correct, they were 2-8 in afternoon games and were shutout four times.

However, if the Rangers manage to stave off the Capitals attack again and win Game 2, that would be huge. Up 2-0 going into MSG is tough for any team to overcome. And the Capitals attack isn't too great, you know.

Seriously. Let me explain. They had 35 shots on goal, 13 from Ovechkin, and 22 from elsewhere. 22 shots in a game? That's Devils-territory. Stop Ovechkin, stop the Capitals. Oh, and don't take bad penalties especially in the offensive zone.

* * *

My wish for this series is good officiating. I was very concernced that we would see biased referreeing based on the fact that the NHL wants the Capitals to do good, much like Pittsburgh got the benefit of 97% of all calls in the playoffs last year. But I guess as long as the Penguins are in, the league is happy, and the other serieses can be called evenly.

Tonight, there were some bad calls and non-calls, but they were pretty much even against both teams. I'm fine with awful officiating, as long as it's even.

* * *

Oh, and yes, Henrik Lundqvist was great today, even though he did give up 3 goals.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs Drinking Game

Hockey fans and boozehounds, rejoice! Even if your team isn't in the playoffs, you can still enjoy the playoffs like they're meant to be enjoyed. So grab a case of Labatt Blue, turn on some puck, and have fun! Feel free to comment with any rules we may have missed.

IN-GAME OCCURRENCES
Drink after each of the following:
- A player looks to the sky after the goalie makes a great save on him
- A skirmish breaks out after the whistle. Chug if it's after a goal is scored.
- A fight breaks out. Chug if the announcers mention how there's rarely any fighting in the playoffs.
- A player checks for blood after being high-sticked
- A player "takes exception" to a cheap shot taken at a star player
- A team sends its goons out to start a fight at the end of a game they're losing. Chug if the announcers mention "sending a message".

STUPID CAMERA TRICKS
Drink any time the following items are shown on screen:
- Commissioner Gary Bettman in a press box
- A head coach
- The Stanley Cup
- One of those stupid pre-game/commercial bumpers where players stare at the camera
- Versus promotes one of its shows below the score bug
- A local paper with an incendiary quote from a player
- A montage of previous playoff battles between these two teams

CLICHE ALERT!
Drink anytime an announcer says the following:
- "This is what playoff hockey is all about."
- "(name of team) can only go as far as (name of superstar) can take them."
- "Lord Stanley's Cup"
- "Your goaltender has to be your best penalty killer."
- "Win the one-on-one battles"
- "See who blinks first"
- "A hot goalie can take you far in the playoffs."
- "(name of coach) is shortening his bench."
- "(name of team) isn't just happy to be here. They want to win!"
- "(name of team) has the last line change."
- "Upper/Lower Body Injury"
- "All you young kids out there..."
- Any discussion about playoff beards
- Any reference to the referees "swallowing their whistles" late in a game
- Any reference to the new penalties for fighting

INTERMISSION REPORTS
Drink any time any of the following events happen:
- A guest analyst is present at the Versus studio. Chug if it's not Rick DiPietro.
- A pundit declares that a team must start "doing the little things"
- An analyst looks at the wrong camera
- A Canadian journalist floats an unsubstantiated rumor. Chug if it involves the Toronto Maple Leafs.
- An interviewed player is wearing a Versus/CBC towel

MISCELLANEOUS
- Kill a beer during each overtime period. Chug each time the announcers mention how there are no TV timeouts during playoff overtime.
- Drink every time the announcers mention how Ken Hitchcock is a Civil War buff.
- Drink every time reference is made to the Rangers' record with/without Sean Avery.
- Chug if Jack Edwards laughs maniacally at a vicious hit.
- Chug every time the following words are used: Economy, Bailout, Stimulus, Obama.
- Drink if the condition of the ice is discussed. Chug if a new sheet of ice was put down because of a concert the night before.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

We Win. Finally.

At long last, Islanders fans can say they won something.

It only took 56 losses and six months of frustration, but for one night, the Islanders are champions. Yeah, they're champions of the NHL Draft Lottery, something they had a 48.2 percent chance of "winning". But so what? When you've had so little to cheer about over the past 15 years, these things become very exciting. And make no mistake about it, tonight was a critical night in franchise history.

Tonight was our Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. And for once, things went our way. We don't have to worry about Tampa Bay trading Vincent Lecavalier and stealing John Tavares from under our noses. We don't have to wonder which of the two super prospects we'll be stuck with. We're in control now. For once.

I'm not going to worry about what happens next. I don't want to think about what happens if Garth Snow trades the pick, drafts Victor Hedman, or does anything besides selecting John Tavares on June 26. There's no need to ruin this night. We'll deal with the draft on a different day. For now, I just want to relax and, if even for just one night, think about the New York Islanders as winners.

If this season was about getting the first overall pick - and we've both gone on record as saying as much - the Islanders just won the championship.

Bryan's Playoff Predictions

Another year, another Islanders-less post-season.

The one good thing about not having your team in the playoffs is that you really get to sit back and appreciate everything. Without a rooting interest, you can enjoy the games, the quality of play, the intensity of the competitors, and just about everything else that makes the Stanley Cup Playoffs the premier tournament in North American sports. It truly is an entirely different game than the regular season, and the results of the playoffs always show this. Teams never come from nowhere to win the Cup. It takes years of experience and failure to hoist the Stanley Cup. Those teams who appeared last year are wiser for their playoff battles; those who are new to the tournament have much to learn.

So, without further adieu, here are my predictions for the first round.

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal - Boston in 6
This is a rematch from the first round of last year's playoffs, only last year Montreal was the top seed in the East and Boston barely got in. And yet, the Bruins took the Habs to the brink, giving them all they wanted and then some. Will Montreal return the favor this year? It'll be an intense series, sure, but Boston is playing as well as they have all year and Montreal was fortunate just to make the playoffs. Boston will win what should be a very physical series.

(2) Washington vs. (7) NY Rangers - Rangers in 7
This is one of the more even 2-7 matchups in recent memory. The Rangers finished 15 points behind the Capitals, but played in a much tougher division and are peaking at the right time. The Capitals, meanwhile, are certainly a great team, but they'll need to play at a very high level to match the defense-first Rangers. Can they do it? It all depends on Sean Avery and Henrik Lundqvist. If Avery can get the likes of Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin off their respective games, the Rangers have more than a fighting chance. And if Lundqvist gets hot, watch out. Those two give the Rangers the nod over what is a far more talented Capitals team.

(3) New Jersey vs. (6) Carolina - Carolina in 6
We all know how great Martin Brodeur is; the media hasn't stopped reminding us of that since Brodeur broke the wins record. But the truth is, this Devils team isn't all it's cracked up to be. They were pretty horrendous down the stretch against playoff teams, losing seven in a row before finally beating the Hurricanes in the final game of the season. But don't let that fool you. The Canes have their best possible matchup against the Devils, they had the best finish to the season of any team, and they have a red-hot Cam Ward in their net. Besides, the Devils always choke in the playoffs. Everybody knows that.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia - Philadelphia in 7
This series is not only NBC's wet dream, but it should also be the best series of the first round. The reason I'm going with Philadelphia is that Pittsburgh lost virtually all of its role players - Gary Roberts, Adam Hall, Mark Recchi, Jarkko Ruutu, etc. - and those players were the most valuable players in their Cup run last year. Philly's superstars can defend themselves for the most part, which goes a long way in the playoffs. Pittsburgh has been great under Dan Byslma, but Philadelphia seems like it's a better playoff team than Pittsburgh at this point in time.

Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim - San Jose in 4
The Sharks have heard all season about how nothing matters except for the playoffs. This is the year they finally start acting like it. They didn't bring in Claude Lemieux for the regular season, they brought him in to show the team how to win a Cup. It all starts here. Anaheim had a great run to make the playoffs after being sellers at the trade deadline, but it's hard to imagine them posing a serious threat to the Sharks.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus - Detroit in 6
Detroit always seems to have trouble with teams it should destroy in the first round. This should be no different, especially against a Blue Jackets team that has great goaltending. The BJs could be extremely dangerous in front of a rabid crowd that has waited nearly a decade for playoff hockey; with the right matchup, they easily could have stolen a round. As it is, though, they've drawn the Red Wings, and Detroit's skill will prevail in the end.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis - Vancouver in 7
I'm not sold on this Canucks team. At all. Roberto Luongo's numbers this season were barely better than those of Chris Mason. Mats Sundin has never won anything, nor has anyone else in Vancouver. But they've been to the playoffs before and that experience will help them against the Blues, a team nobody saw getting this far. No matter what, it's a win for St. Louis. Their young players will learn what playoff hockey is all about and will gain valuable experience for the future - but Vancouver will just barely squeak by.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary - Chicago in 6
It's hard to take Calgary seriously after they laid an egg down the stretch, and that's a shame, because this is a much better team than the one that nearly stole a round last year. Chicago will be buzzing in their first playoff appearance in years and their young stars will certainly rise to the challenge. Also, the Blackhawks have Nikolai "I Only Play Well In Contract Years" Khabibulin - and wouldn't you know it, he's playing for a contract next year.

If all of these scenarios play themselves out - and, of course, they won't - these are the second-round matchups we'd be left with:

East
 - (1) Boston vs. (7) NY Rangers
 - (5) Philadelphia vs. (6) Carolina

West
 - (1) San Jose vs. (4) Chicago
 - (2) Detroit vs. (3) Vancouver

Those would be some pretty awesome series. For now, though, enjoy the first round. And as for Zach's request to make it interesting... I'm sure we can work something out.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Playoff Predictions...

Since my predictions are generally not entirely correct, and since everyone, their mother, and their mother's father are doing predictions, I'll keep mine short and simple. I imagine Bryan will be doing some as well tonight or tomorrow, even though his beloved Islanders are now dearly beloved. Hey, Bryan, if you want to make things interesting, let me know.

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal - Boston in 5
- Say what you want about the "history" between the 2 teams in the playoffs, mostly how Montreal has won 24/31 playoff series (a fraction normally reserved for longer months on a calendar), but Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, and Tim Thomas weren't on the Bruins when the Habs were whooping them. And I don't see Maurice Richard, Patrick Roy, Ken Dryden, or Larry Robinson suiting up for the Canadiens, either.

(2) Washington vs. (7) Rangers - Rangers in 7
- Sticking with my prediction from the other day. Shut down Ovechkin, keep Green in control, and score a few goals. Henrik Lundqvist will outplay Jose Theodore any day of the week, and if the over-priced players on the Rangers actually play worth half of their contract, they can and will win.

(3) Devils vs. (6) Carolina - Devils in 6
- This is the least interesting series there is in the whole playoffs, besides maybe Vancouver vs. St. Louis. I vote the Devils, because this incarnation of the '06 Champs is 3 years older, slower, and doesn't have Doug Weight or Mark Recchi. Cam Ward is overrated, as well.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia - Penguins in 6
- Flyers have a fantastic offense with Briere, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, and Richards, and Braydon Coburn can be a game-changer. But Martin Biron, as much as I like him, is no match for Crosby, Ovechkin, and Sykora.

Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim - SJ in 4
- San Jose would have much rathered seen St. Louis, Columbus, or Nashville, but got stuck with Anaheim. Still, they should walk by them because they're hungrier and deeper than the last time the two met.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus - Columbus in 6
- I'll give the sentimental pick to the Blue Jackets, in part because I think Steve Mason will outplay Chris Osgood/Ty Conklin. I think Antoine Vermette adds a lot of dimension to the club, and if their injured players (Freddy Modin, Derick Brassard, Rostislav Klesla) can return, they can give the Wings a good run for their money. I think the Blue Jackets can beat Detroit, but that might be the end of their run. However, if this series goes to Game 7, I would give the edge to Detroit. Jackets in 6, though, final answer.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis - Vancouver in 4
- Vancouver has been hot, and I think Roberto Luongo is going to shut it down. Mats Sundin probably won't win his first Stanley Cup this year, but he should atleast go further in the playoffs than he has with Toronto the past 3 years.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary - Chicago in 5
- Simple: Calgary enters cold, Chicago enters hot, and with a smokin' hot goalie in Nikolai Khabibulin. He has been on fire, and if he cools off, Cristobal Huet is ready to go. Mikka Kiprusoff had a good season, but has been uncharacteristically inconsistent, which could be his downfall. Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold will help this team, but any team with Jamie Lundmark on it can't go far. Trust me.

What teams have the edge? A solid offense, a respectable defense, and a great goaltender is what you need. If Lundqvist catches fire - entirely possible - will the rest of the team follow suit? Probably not. If Ovechkin becomes Gretzky, will his goaltender become Roy? No.

So, who? Boston seems to have the total package, so does San Jose. But of the teams who are not ranked 1st in their conference, it seems Chicago has the best combo of goalie and forwards.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Set in Stone: Rangers vs. Capitals

It's all set up, and presumably will begin Wednesday night from the Verizon Center.

Washington (50-24-8 -- 108) vs. The Rangers (42-30-9 -- 93, one game left)

The four games this season...

Capitals 3, Rangers 1 - 11/8/08 - This game was so long ago that Aaron Voros scored the Rangers' only goal on a pass from Brandon Dubinsky. Capitals started backup goalie Brent Johnson, Chris Drury failed on a penalty shot with the score 2-1 with 2:15 left to play, and Alexander Semin scored an empty netter to seal the deal. Alex Ovechkin had no goals and was foiled all night by an incredible Henrik Lundqvist, who let in one goal when it hit the glass behing the net, bounced and hit the crossbar, hit Lundqvist in the head, and Brooks Laich batted it in. The 2nd goal was scored after the net came loose, and Lundqvist argued play should've stopped. It didn't, Caps win.

Capitals 5, Rangers 4, OT - 12/23/08 - Rangers go up 4-0, Capitals storm back to tie it, including 2 goals by Ovechkin. Ryan Callahan scored 2 as well, Drury had 3 assists, and Nigel Dawes had 2 assists. Jose Theodore started the game, got pulled, and then was put back in to start the 2nd period. This was an ecstatic first half of the game, and a gross second half that shone a light on some of the team's offensive and defensive problems.

Capitals 2, Rangers 1 - 1/3/09 - Petr Prucha had the lone goal for the good guys, and Marc Staal matched up well against Ovechkin all night long. However, Ovechkin scored the game winner while shorthanded with 32 seconds left in the 2nd. This was their 12th SHG-against of the year. Steve Valiquette was in net and did play well. This game was also notable for Everyone's Hero Wade Redden getting in - and winning - a fight against Chris Clark.

Rangers 5, Capitals 4, SO - 2/11/09 - Down 2-1 after one period and tied 4-4 after the second, the Rangers had 10 minutes of power play time (including a double-minor for high-sticking) and didn't score once. The Rangers were slumping badly during the stretch of the year, as they were 0-4-1 before this game and 1-4-3 afterwards. Lunqvist was in net, so was Theodore.

So which will we see, those 5-4 games of those 2-1 games? I think if it goes 2-1, it's the Rangers winning, but if Lundqvist lets up those 4 or 5 goals, the Rangers won't be able to overcome.

Official Prediction: Rangers in 7. Yes, I'm serious. No, it's not a homer pick. I've been saying they could beat Washington all along. Once you get past Ovechkin and Green, they aren't scary at all. Jose Theodore? Get real. Lundqvist can outplay him every night.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Be Careful What You Wish For

Last night, as the Islanders game ended, I was in bed sick. I didn't even make it through the end of the game. I guess it's just as well, though - it was pretty clear where the game was going.

Ever since this season began, many Islanders fans have been hoping and praying for a 30th place finish. We've been saying it since last July - the Islanders' 2008-09 season has been all about John Tavares. It didn't pay for the Islanders to battle valiantly for the eighth seed; we've been there and done that.  Similarly, just being bad wasn't going to work for this Islanders team. They had to be historically bad. Before the season, I predicted the Islanders would have 72 points at season's end, and Zach thought I was being much too critical. Guess not. But hey, the Isles' faithful got what they wanted in the end, so it's worth it. Right?

The problem is, as a fan, pride comes into play. Some fans have been rather vociferious about getting having a 48.2% chance at the first overall pick; others, like myself, hoped for the best but didn't want to compromise their fandom. Either way, it's hard for me to come out and state that I'm happy that the Islanders have lost their last two games by a combined score of 15-1. It's certainly nothing to brag about. We knew it wouldn't be pretty. And it wasn't.

The Islanders' season is essentially over, with only two meaningless games left - an afternoon game tomorrow against Philadelphia and a 5 PM game against Boston on Easter Sunday (who scheduled that one?). Just about the unanswered question is whether Kyle Okposo will score two goals to ensure that this won't be the first season in Islanders' history without a 20-goal scorer. (He probably won't.) The Islanders have done a great job of showing most nights in the second half, the last two games notwithstanding, so look for the Isles to make life very difficult for their far more skilled opponents. While Sunday's game means nothing to a Bruins team who clinched the East forever ago, imagine what a win over the Bruins in the season's final game would do for the Islanders.

Clinched...

The offense wasn't flying, the defense had holes, but the team got it done last night.

Ryan Callahan and Brandon Dubinsky had very strong games. Callahan had 2 points and was a great penalty killer last night. Dubinsky didn't score, but he was close on one, and he played great defense as well. Lauri Korpikoski played good also. Freddy Sjostrom, who went from 2nd line winger back to the 4th line, had a good game in limited use. Blair Betts was solid again in his specialty role on the penalty kill. Chris Drury, a guy who I like but wish didn't come at such with Salary Cap-smothering price tag, played real good as well, and looks a lot calmer and more confident than he did 6 weeks ago. Sean Avery was his usual self, albeit a bit milder, and was useful.

(The only negative I have about Avery was the flyer I received about the opening of a bar he is going to co-own with an art dealer. It said "AVERY-A-PALOOZA" and had a picture of Joey Kocur fighting someone else who presumably played in the 1990s. Were no pictures of Avery himself available?)

On defense, Paul Mara was a warrior, hitting everyone he could and playing well away from the puck. He got hurt, got back up, and still went for a check. Yes, he was out of position and that caused the power play goal against them, but I liked the effort.

As for Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival, I counted 1 good play between the pair, and that was a body check just outside the Rangers' zone when he level Joffrey Lupul.

But the night belonged to Henrik Lundqvist. When the Rangers couldn't crack through Braydon Coburn and the rest of the Flyers defense, and when the Rangers defense let Dan Carcillo, Daniel Briere (aka Lord Farquaad from Shrek, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, et al, slip through to the slot unharmed, Lundqvist was there to stop them.

Yes, that save on Carcillo was awesome, but there was so much more to him last night. He goes side-to-side like no other goalie I've ever seen, and he stopped a bunch of tip-ins and deflections last night. The best one I think, other than the glove save on Carcillo, was in the first period. A shot was quickly deflected as he was moving right, and he just stopped and caught it and held it for the whistle.

No, the team didn't play great. They gave up way too many shots, 38 in all, and they were good shots from prime real estate, not crappy shots from the perimeter like the Rangers take. But as long as Henrik Lundqvist is in net playing like he did yesterday, and as long as Avery, Drury, Callahan, and Betts are playing as good as they can, this team can will games. And maybe, just maybe, Redden and Rozsival will stop being a useless waste of a combined $11.5M.

Will that happen? I don't know. You like to think they'll all come alive for the playoffs, but isn't that how every team's fans think around this time?

* * *

My preference for playoff opponent is Washington, for two reasons...

1) They play a more wide-open game than Boston, which means it's high-scoring. And while the terms "Rangers" and "high-scoring" don't normally mesh well, I think they can score 4 on Jose Theodore and try to hold back Alex Ovechkin.

2) Judging by last night's game, how awesome and violent would a Bruins-Canadiens series be? Let those teams beat up on each other, leave us out of it.

Of course, I don't really care who they play, because if you want to go through the playoffs, you have to beat everyone.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Ranger Fan...

Listen, I might rail against half of the Rangers 75% of the time on this website. I might not care if Wade Redden plays another game or is banished to the AHL for the rest of his career and ruins their blueline. I might not even care if Scott Gomez is traded to Detroit for a 7th round pick at this year's NHL Draft. I think their GM is clueless and quite possibly never read the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and I think their owner is a ruthless, heartless idiot whose father gave him everything. He was voted worst owner in sports by ESPN, and I agree.

But one thing is for sure, I want this team to win tonight against Philadelphia. Win And In. And I want them to win.

I don't care about Redden, or Gomez, or even Michal Rozsival for that matter. I don't like that Markus Naslund and Chris Drury can never live up to their contracts (which isn't their fault).

But I will root for them.

I personally wish Redden will never get his name on the Stanley Cup, but as long as he is wearing a blue jersey at Madison Square Garden, I'm rooting for him to score the game-winning goal in Game 7 of the Finals.

For all of the bashing I've done here, most of it deservingly so, for all of the times I've said this team doesn't care (you can't honestly believe Redden wants this team to win), for all of the negatives I've written, there has been one common factor...

I want this team to win. I want them to succeed. I want them to make the playoffs, and I want them to make a strong run at playing hockey in June.

While some of the players anger me, namely the five I've mentioned in this post, there is nothing I want more than to see them taking a victory lap around Garden ice after the handshakes.

Much like that tired cliche, "Don't play for the name on the back; play for the logo on the front," I don't root against the name on the back, I root for the R A N G E R S going down the front of that RBK Edge jersey.

I don't want Redden to fail; he just happens to and I point it out. What I want is for him to have a booming slap shot, impeccable defensive skills, and a wicked passion for the game.

Tonight, all that goes out the window. I couldn't care less how they get it done. All I care about it them winning.

Oh, and being on the ice after the game to receive a game-worn jersey would be sweet to.

As long as I'm not second in line...

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Fedor Tyutin...

The Columbus Blue Jackets clinched a playoff berth today when their game against Chicago went to overtime. They sealed the deal with a shootout win. Rick Nash, Jonathan Toews and Pat Kane missed, but Fedor Tyutin, the second Columbus shooter, scored.

Also, today, I was listening to NHL Home Ice 204 on XM and they were listing the nominations for the Espo Awards, their yearly award ceremony. I highly disagreed with their list for Michel Bergeron Trophy (for Coach of the Year).

They had: Andy Murray (Blues); Barry Trotz (Predators); Claude Julien (Bruins); Brent Sutter (Devils); and Paul Maurice (Hurricanes). Phil Esposito added Ken Hitchcock (Blue Jackets) to the list.

Uh, where is John Tortorella in this list?!

No, kidding, but seriously, where is rookie coach Todd McLellan? The Sharks are far and away the best team in the league this season. While having Joe Thornton, Rob Blake, Danny Boyle, and Evgeni Nabokov helps, are you telling me he doesn't belong in the top six of all coaches this season?

If I had to pick a top 3 to nominate, I would say McLellan, Julien, and probably Hitchcock. All are good choices, and I think Julien would/should win the real award, the Jack Adams Award. He has taken a ragtag group of players and turned them into dominant forces.

Ahh, remember the good ol' days in the year after the lockout, when Lindy Ruff (Sabres), Pete Laviolette ('Canes), and Tom Renney (Rangers) were nominated? After this season, all 3 might not be on those teams anymore, especially if the Sabres miss the playoffs again.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

All Is Well On This Night

You could say tonight went pretty well for the New York hockey teams. But that doesn't even begin to describe it.

The Rangers didn't just win tonight. They got a piece of themselves back. Their win tonight, coupled with Florida's loss, gives the Rangers a two-point lead with two games left. In essence, all the Rangers need to do is win one more game. One more win gives the Rangers 93 points and 42 wins; while Florida can still get to 93 points, they cannot win more than 41 games. The Rangers also did themselves a tremendous favor by taking two points from Montreal, as they've given themselves at least a fighting chance of avoiding Boston in the first round.

As for the Islanders... well, it's hard to draw positives out of 9-0 losses. Really, it is. If you listen hard enough, you can almost hear the accusations of tanking from up in Toronto. That's what happens when you get outshot 57-12. It was so bad that Scott Gordon changed goalies; if my memory serves me correctly, the only other time he changed goalies mid-game was during the Black Friday debacle in Boston. In any event, zero points is zero points, and there are some who will be thrilled with this result. As for me, I'm a huge Ric Flair fan, so I was more than happy to hear this over and over again.

So, what do we make of tonight? The Islanders have virtually wrapped up the top seed in the Draft Lottery. Tampa Bay is out of the running. Colorado will certainly fall to San Jose tonight, but it doesn't really matter. Assuming an Avalanche loss tonight, they will have 66 points with three games left. They would have to lose every game in regulation and the Islanders would have to win all of their remaining games to miss out on 30th place. That's not going to happen. So rest easy, Islanders fans. As for the Rangers, their playoff picture is much clearer. Truth be told, if they're truly a playoff team, they should be able to beat Philadelphia in one of two games. At this point, they'd have to be considered the favorites to beat out Florida. The hope now is that the Rangers play well in their final two games not just to get into the playoffs, but to get on a roll so that they can enter the post-season with some momentum.

Having said all of that, we close this entry out by throwing our support behind the Phoenix Coyotes in their game against St. Louis tonight. As much as we love John Davidson and the work he's done in St. Louis, a regulation loss by the Blues clinches a playoff berth for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have never made the playoffs. The Blue Jackets fans deserve a shot to see their play in the post-season, and if they draw Calgary in the first round, anything is possible.

Monday, April 6, 2009

If They Miss the Playoffs...

If the Rangers miss the playoffs by a point or two, they should look back to these games as the reason why...

November 28 - Rangers 4, Florida 3, shootout. They give up a goal to Radek Dvorak with under 2 minutes to play in regulation, sending the game to a shootout, giving Florida the extra point.

February 13 - Florida 2, Rangers 1, shootout. Fred Sjostrom scores in the first period, Rangers can't do anything else the whole game, relying on Henrik Lundqvist to stop 38 shots in regulation and 4 more in overtime. Richard Zednik scores the shootout-winner, Panthers get 2 points.

The other games the two played, for the record, was a 4-0 Panther shutout on a Sunday afternoon, 11/30, and another offensively challenged 2-1 regulation loss. It was John Tortorella's first home game, and they took a 1-0 lead in the first, but gave up 2 goals in a minute in the third and lost, giving Florida another 2 points.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

An Open-Letter to Ryan Callahan...

Dear Ryan Callahan,

I know you're young. You just turned 24. You were 3 when Mark Recchi was drafted into the NHL. However, despite your age, you've been one of the few bright spots on a team that has been free-falling since November. In fact, I voted twice for the Steven McDonald Extra Effort Award - once for Blair Betts, once for you.

Today, I wish I could rescind my vote.

This team can't score. Markus Naslund had a chance early in the game but was too close to Tim Thomas to do anything. Scott Gomez can pass pretty well, but that's about it. Brandon Dubinsky scored 3 goals in March, so you know he's tapped out. Nik Zherdev hates John Tortorella and won't play for him. Chris Drury isn't as "clutch" as his $7M salary tells you. And the defense scores so rarely that they show stats about how rare a defenseman's goal is when it happens.

We need you. We need you to SHOOT THE PUCK. When Sean Avery throws you the puck on a 2-on-1 and you're in a building where you routinely play 1-0 games, deep into the season, with an inept Wade Redden-esque power play, with a playoff spot on the line, SHOOT THE PUCK. If the rubber disc is bouncing, SHOOT THE PUCK anyway. If you see the goalie slightly out of position, SHOOT THE PUCK.

I keep watching the replay of when Avery gives you the puck, and it baffles me the amount of time you give Thomas to get back into position. You give him atleast 2 and a half seconds, and then you SHOOT THE PUCK right into him. Not above his head, not to the side of the net, right to him.

Next time you have a golden opportunity to tie the game against the best team in the conference, on the road, with 4 games left in the season, with a playoff spot not entirely guaranteed, please, please, Ryan, please SHOOT THE PUCK!

Saturday, April 4, 2009

An Alcohol-Fueled Message To New York Hockey Fans

OK, I'll admit - I've been drinking tonight. A lot. But the following message rings true, regardless of whatever state you might find yourself:

CALM THE F*** DOWN.

Rangers Fans: You're fine. You still control your own destiny. In spite of the last two games, you're playing your best hockey of the year. Don't worry about Buffalo, and don't worry about Florida. Yes, I know the Panthers are just two points back with a game in hand. But barring a miracle, you hold the tiebreaker (wins). Two more wins will almost certainly clinch a playoff spot. They might be tough opponents, but these are the teams you'll be playing in the playoffs. And if any eighth seed is equipped to pull a 2006 Oilers, it's the Rangers.

Islanders Fans: Tampa Bay had no hopes of catching you no matter what. Even in light of tonight's result, they're five points back of you with three games to play. In other words, the only way they could catch you is if they win every game and you lose every game. As for Colorado... whatever. The worst team rarely wins the Draft Lottery anyway. All other things equal, karma always wins. Trust me, you'd rather play hard and let the chips fall where they may. Or would you rather the hockey gods exact vengeance upon you for tanking? It's much better this way.

You see? Both teams are fine. The Rangers still have a very good chance of qualifying for the playoffs. The Islanders still have a great chance at nabbing the best seed in the Draft Lottery and the 48.2% chance at the first overall pick that comes with it. There are still eight glorious days of hockey to be played. Let's enjoy it. No sense in worrying about what can't be controlled. Because for at least half of us, the season will be over next Sunday. For the sake of Rangers fans and the NHL in general, let's hope the Rangers get in.

Live Blog: New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Today's Games

It wouldn't be a stretch to proclaim today as the biggest day in New York hockey so far this season.

Last night, the results went the way of the local clubs. The Rangers were spared a huge blow when the Panthers inexplicably lost to the Atlanta Thrashers at home. The Islanders' faithful are more than happy with the point Tampa Bay picked up last night against the Devils. The events of last night only serve to make today's action more interesting - as if things weren't already interesting enough.

Boston will have plenty to play for against the Rangers this afternoon - while home ice in the East seems a certainty for the Bruins, they'd love to nab the President's Trophy from San Jose. The Rangers were hardly inspiring on Thursday night, but perhaps last night's debacle in Florida will inspire the Blueshirts. Not only do they control their destiny once again, but a tie in points between the Rangers and Panthers will almost certainly result in a Rangers playoff berth, as Florida would have to make up two wins in four games. If the Rangers can pull off a win today, they'll be infinitely more secure in the top eight.

As for the Islanders, this one is going to be ugly. Both teams will obviously play hard. The Islanders have not laid down for anybody, while Tampa Bay silenced any talk of tanking with a valiant effort against the Devils last night. The atmosphere of the Coliseum will be bizarre, as Islanders fans will be rooting for the home team, but secretly hoping for a Lightning win. How will it play out? Only time will tell. But if the Lightning win, the Islanders will only have to "beat out" Colorado for the first seed in the Draft Lottery. In reality, the odds of the Islanders losing their spot to anybody are extremely long, but for Islanders fans who feel they've earned their crack at John Tavares or Victor Hedman, nothing is secure just yet.

By night's end, we'll know a lot more about the fates of both the Rangers and Islanders. Until then, though, this is going to be one exciting day of hockey.

EDIT, 12:35 PM: Odds are pretty good that I'll be doing a live blog of tonight's Islanders-Lightning game. If any of the other Blog Boxers are doing a live blog, I'll post a link to it later. Either way, this game promises to be excruciating, so there will be plenty of booze involved. There has to be.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Pretty Horrible Game...

The Rangers never got a break today. Sure, the refs gave them some when they whistled Carolina for 4 straight penalties in the first. But they never took advantage, never pounded while the iron was hot, never cashed in, never put a nail in the coffin, except possibly their own.

John Tortorella said last night that if the Rangers can't wake up for a big game against a team in the same boat, then they don't have the right players. He said, "But we do." No, he doesn't, and he knows it.

Twelve forwards were all shut-out tonight. Twelve. Nik Zherdev tried for some of the game; Sean Avery played well; Ryan Callahan tried his best; Blair Betts was there for them as was Fred Sjostrom.

But where was everyone else? Scott Gomez took a few crappy shots straight at Cam Ward. Markus Naslund had 3 shots, all at even strength and all in the 2nd period. Useless the rest of the way. Chris Drury, the "new point man on the power play," had 1 shot all game, and none in the first period during those 4 failed power plays. Wade Redden? One shot, lots of ice time.

Let me put this in bold lettering...

The Rangers will not win with Wade Redden on the power play.

Tom Renney couldn't figure that out, or didn't want to admit it, and look where he is now - getting paid by James Dolan without working (okay, maybe that isn't actually horrible). I'm not a coach, far from it, and I can see it. Can John Tortorella not see that he does more harm than good for this team? I know GM Glen Sather gave him a monstrous, absurd contract. But he is good as a 4th or 5th or 6th d-man only, not a top player, and NOT a power play quarterback!

The Hurricanes scored to make it 3-2, and once the puck dropped, I said, "They're gonna score again." Sure enough, 10 seconds later, it's 4-2. Carolina scores fast and the Rangers unravel quicker. Once again, not a coach, but I know this. Tortorella should've called a timeout, given them a chance to regroup, not yell, and sent them back out to score. Instead, it was a quick faceoff and a quick goal.

Four games left, all against playoff teams. One is the best team in the East, one is now in 7th and will need a huge road game at MSG Tuesday, and two are against a Philadelphia team who plays real tough against the Rangers.

* * *

If they miss the playoffs, I won't be heartbroken, but I will be pissed. Pissed that only a handful of players play like they care (Antropov, Girardi, Betts, Callahan, Dubi, Mara, Orr, Sjostrom, Lundqvist, Avery), and even madder that players like Gomez, Redden, Rozsival, and Naslund are wearing a sweater that I've sworn by since I was 3 years old. They put shame to the blue and red, even more than Kevin Stevens, Stephane Quintal, and Alexandre Daigle did.

For the record, on the goal that made it 3-2, Redden's stick was behind him. He wasn't hitting anyone, he wasn't swinging his stick, it was behind him, he stood, a goal was scored. Crease-clearing defenseman? Offensive threat? Noif. Defensive threat and offensive liability is more like it.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Uh-Oh

This was not a good night for the Rangers to lose.

Zach will have more about this game later. But for now, real quick. The Rangers are still in the playoff hunt, but just barely. Florida is two points back of the eight-seeded Rangers; what's worse is that Florida has one game in hand. Even worse than that, though, is that the game in hand is against the hapless Thrashers. The Panthers play the Thrashers twice in their final five games, though games against the Penguins, Capitals and Flyers ensure that if Florida does qualify for the playoffs, it will certainly be well-deserved.

The Rangers' upcoming schedule? At Boston on Saturday, where the Bruins are making a push for the President's Trophy. Tuesday, they host the desperate Canadiens. The final two games are a home-and-home against Philadelphia, who will surely bring its A-game as the Flyers attempt to earn home ice advantage in the first round. To say that none of these games will be easy is a huge understatement.

You figure Florida will beat Atlanta in both matchups and should be good for three points in their games against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Washington. That would leave them with 94 points. The Rangers would need five points in their final points to match that total. If the Rangers and Panthers tie for the eight seed, here's how the tie would be broken:

 - Total Wins. The Rangers currently have 40, while Florida has 38. Though those two games against the Thrashers makes this differential much more surmountable.

 - Points Earned In Head-To-Head Competition. The Rangers are 1-2-1 against Florida this year. So if there's a tie and the teams have the same number of wins, Florida gets the nod.

 - Goal Differential. It won't come to this, but Florida has an even goal differential while the Rangers' differential is minus-11.

Make no mistake, not qualifying for the playoffs would be a disaster for the Rangers. But it wouldn't diminish the fact that Florida is a pretty good team and has earned its place in the playoff picture. Part of me hopes they get in because it would help the franchise exponentially. But a Rangers team in the playoffs is good for ratings and publicity, things the NHL needs desperately. That path to the playoffs would have been infinitely easier had they beaten Carolina tonight. Now, they don't even control their own destiny.