Coming Up...

I find it very amusing that 40 minutes from now, Islanders writer Bryan, will be either celebrating with thousands of other fans - by the way, apparently the way to sell out an Islanders game is to give away free tickets - or drowning his sorrows in pretzel twists.

Contrary to popular belief, I am not rooting against the Islanders picking John Tavares. I am hoping they do, and I'm hoping that all the "will they/won't they" about Victor Hedman and Matt Duchene will go the way of the Mats Sundin to NY stories (as well as the Michael Peca and Dave Scatchard to the Rangers rumors).

No matter who they pick, they'll be getting a great player. Hedman is a beast and very well could be their #2 guy behind Mark Streit tomorrow, and Duchene could be a nice compliment to Kyle Okposo and Josh Bailey. However, Tavares is the real deal, and I've been saying for 2 years now that I think he'll be better than Sidney Crosby.

Enjoy the show.

P.S.: Hey, you think Olli Jokinen will be moved again? I think he has been traded 3 times on draft day: from LA to the Islanders; from the Islanders to Florida; and from Florida to Phoenix.

D-Day

At long last, Draft Day has arrived.

I'm not sure how much remains unsaid about the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, at least from the Islanders' perspective. As Zach noted, the Rangers could be involved in some deals, which would be great for them. Truly, though, today is the Islanders' day.

It's been a pleasure to see the Islanders become the talk of the NHL, even if it's been for the wrong reasons. It's also been extremely interesting to watch the Canadian media totally turn on John Tavares because God forbid he joins the New York Islanders. But by the time tonight's draft ends, all of that will be a memory. The Islanders will return to their rebuilding project, the Rangers will prepare to make a big splash on July 1, and that will be that.

One of the most fascinating things I've read about John Tavares over the past year or so is that he might have been too good in juniors. That he scored 72 goals in 2006-07, then "only" scored 40 the following year. Tavares has been, easily, the most dissected prospect since Eric Lindros in 1991 - and Lindros doesn't even compare because he was the consensus #1 pick that year. What's happened with Tavares is what's happened with so many prospects in other sports. People have simply seen way too much of him and have started picking at every flaw in his game. And that's what scares me.

Zach and I appeared on our buddy Anthony's radio show in March, and one thing Anthony said is that it would take a new face to crack the "new" NHL. It wouldn't be one of the old guard; instead, a new GM would come in and figure it all out. I've said many times that Garth Snow understands the CBA better than any other GM in the game. And the way he's gone about his business over the past few years calls to mind the New England Patriots of the NFL. Very secretive, not giving much to the media, going about things a bit differently, but with a solid knowledge of what the organization needs and what it can do without. That's become the norm in football. But another thing that has become the norm is the overthinking of simple decisions. Coaches and GMs have too much information these days, and that can be a bad thing. So something that's a work in progress, like Tavares' skating, suddenly becomes a huge deal. And before you know it, people are saying things like, "Tavares might score you 40 goals, but Duchene will win you a Cup".

That's what scares me. Garth Snow doesn't live in a bubble. He doesn't listen to all the crap the Canadian media spits out, but he must be hearing the whispers that only came up after the Islanders won the Draft Lottery. I'm afraid Snow will talk himself into taking Duchene because it falls in line with his now-established model of unconventional thinking. Snow rarely plays it safe, which is usually a good thing, but now might actually be a detriment. Maybe someone should step into the Islanders' war room and remind them of a few things. Namely, Tavares has the OHL record for goals scored in a career. Tavares was the MVP of the 2009 World Junior Championships. Tavares averaged damn near a goal per game in juniors. Tavares was a slam-dunk #1 pick before all this nonsense about his skating and his defense came up. These are things the Islanders might want to remember before making their selection.

Here's the thing - I love John Tavares. Just about all of Long Island has fallen for this kid. From his play to his star power to how he went out of his way to assure the fans he'd love to be an Islander, every Islander fan is absolutely smitten with John Tavares. We like Hedman and Duchene, but we love Tavares. No other fan of any other team can imagine what Tavares means to us. For better or worse, he's our hope. And for once, I'd love to see the Islanders be praised for doing the right thing than to be questioned for yet another dubious decision.

With that in mind, here's The Rivalry's draft card for the top three selections. We're solidly in agreement on these items; we're just as solid in agreement that everything after the third pick is a total crapshoot.

1) New York Islanders: John Tavares, C, London Knights (OHL). There are just too many reasons why this has to be the pick. It's the safe pick and the sexy pick all at once. Tavares is the player the Islanders could never even dream of being able to sign as a free agent, and he could be theirs for the next 15 years. Tavares will not only get people excited about Islanders hockey, he'll be the goal scorer the team has lacked since Ziggy Palffy departed.

2) Tampa Bay Lightning: Victor Hedman, D, Modo (Elitserien). The Lightning went through a ridiculous 21 defensemen last year. Clearly, some stability is needed, even though they had that stability before they foolishly traded Dan Boyle. The Lightning have Lecavalier, Stamkos, Malone, Prospal, etc., but they have nobody on D. Hedman will solve that problem quite nicely.

3) Colorado Avalanche: Matt Duchene, C, Brampton Battalion (OHL). With Joe Sakic on his way out in Colorado, Duchene could pick up where Sakic left off and be the face of this franchise for a long time. The Avs desperately need to rebuild, and Duchene is a leader who can hold his own at both ends of the ice.

As for coverage of the draft... I'm going to be at the Islanders Draft Party at the Coliseum. The Islanders have distributed more than 20,000 tickets for this event. If even half of those people show up, it's going to be one wild scene. Word is that there will be customization stations around the Coliseum so people can order their Tavares (I hope) jerseys and wear them home.

Anyway, as much as Zach and I completely despise Twitter, it's probably the best way to send frequent updates about what's going on. I make no promises, but I'll do my best to make sure the updates aren't influenced by the heavy celebratory/depressed drinking that will surely take place after the draft. You can find us at http://twitter.com/therivalry. There's also a little Twitter feed on the right side of our main page. As you can see from our most recent updates, we don't really use Twitter that much.

If you're looking for some live updates from Montreal, my Blog Box buddies Ken, Tom, Michael, and Doug will be fully credentialed media members at the Draft. Congrats to them for getting there, and they should be giving us some awesome stuff.

Enjoy the Draft. And if my allegiances weren't already evident enough, here's one last bit of proof...

With The First Overall Pick...

As every Islanders fan knows, the 2009 NHL Entry Draft is coming up on Friday. This is essentially the Stanley Cup Final of the Islanders' 2008-09 season. If they don't come out of this draft with a superstar, the entire season - and all the suffering that came with it - will have been a total waste.

Of course, there isn't much worry about getting a great player with the first overall pick in this year's draft. There are three stud prospects at the top of this draft. Everyone's ready everything about all of these guys already, so there isn't all that much I can add to the discussion. However, if you're an Islanders fan and you're not going absolutely insane wondering what they'll do with this pick, you're lying. After all, these are the Islanders; if there's a way to screw this up, they'll find it.

I will, however, say one thing. No matter what happens, I'm not going the route of many fans out there. That is, if the pick isn't John Tavares, I won't abandon the Islanders. With all of my heart and soul, I want them to pick John Tavares. After the past fifteen years of atrocious hockey and even worse personnel moves, I feel like the Islanders fanbase is entitled to see the team get the consensus top guy, not to mention a potential superstar. Make no mistake about it, if the pick is Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene, it's not going to be a pretty scene at the Coliseum on Friday night.

Islanders fans love to complain. (Don't get offended, but it's true.) To hear Islanders fans tell it, it's just their luck that this happens the year that they get the first overall pick. No other team has to deal with this crap... or so they say. Truth is, a very similar thing happened just three years ago.

In 2006, the Houston Texans had the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. That year, there were three main players that everybody thought had a shot to go first overall. There was Reggie Bush, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who had torn up the entire college football world. There was Matt Leinart, Bush's teammate at USC who had won the Heisman the prior year and probably would have been picked first overall had he left school that year. Lastly, there was Vince Young, who pretty much won the Rose Bowl all by himself and had grown up in Houston. Of the three, the top guy was probably Bush, with the others not too far behind.

The Texans, not unlike the Islanders, refused to tip their hands. The night before the draft, word leaked that they had signed their first pick to a contract. Only thing is, it wasn't with any of the big three. Instead, they had agreed to draft Mario Williams, a physically impressive defensive end, but hardly a guy who would get fans excited about Texans football. As you can imagine, fan reaction wasn't very pretty. Nor was the reaction from pundits and analysts, many of whom immediately called the move one of the worst in football history.

There were two main reasons why the Texans made this move. The first was financially motivated. Contract holdouts, particularly among rookies, are prevalent in the NFL, and the Texans wanted to make sure they could sign the player they drafted. Williams wasn't the big name any of the other three were and didn't demand as much money. The other issue was that the Texans felt Williams fit their needs. Texans management felt they needed someone to pressure Peyton Manning twice a year more than they needed a quarterback or running back. Still, most thought they were crazy for passing on three elite talents.

Three years later, the picture has cleared up a little bit. During the Arizona Cardinals' run to the Super Bowl, Leinart lost his starting job and held a clipboard while his team played in their biggest games. Bush had a great first year for the Saints, but has been injured for much of the past two years. And, in perhaps the biggest tragedy of them all, Young had a mental breakdown, lost his starting job, and watched his Titans reach the AFC Championship game with a different quarterback under center. Williams, for all of the criticism he and his team received at the 2006 Draft, has recorded 26 sacks in the past two years and was named an All-Pro in 2008.

What can the Islanders learn from all of this?

- First and foremost, the players the Islanders pick doesn't immediately mean much. Only time will tell how good or bad of a pick this will be.

- The Islanders should be using this time to determine the best player available, not talk themselves into making the smartest move. This is something the Islanders have traditionally done, much to the chagrin of Islanders fans. We've seen Rick DiPietro over Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. We've seen Robert Nilsson over Zach Parise. Please, let's not see any more of this overthinking. The best player is the best player.

- The Islanders shouldn't be too worried about their needs right now. They need help in every area. Just take the best player.

After the Texans made their pick, many accused their management of overthinking the draft. This is something that's pretty easy to do, especially in the NFL, where crap players have suddenly become first-round picks because they had good workouts. And if anybody would fall into that category in this draft, it'd have to be Matt Duchene.

I'll admit, I've never seen Duchene play. But to hear the way people suddenly gush about him - particularly since the Islanders received the first overall pick - I'm a bit conflicted. People proclaim how Duchene is the most complete player in the draft and how he's a "winner". At the same time, though, he played on his team's second line in the OHL and didn't even make the Canadian World Junior Championships team - a team Tavares captained to the title, dominating throughout the tournament.

In addition, here's this. The whole theory of, "Tavares will score a bunch of goals, but Duchene will win you a Stanley Cup," is complete bullcrap. How can anybody say Duchene will be more of a winner in the NHL than anybody else? Duchene projects to be a Mike Richards-type player, which is great, but it takes a team to win. Besides, hanging the "winner" tag around Duchene's neck is just as bad, if not worse, than the "savior" tag Tavares has already been stuck with.

In the end, we know Garth Snow and his staff will show absolutely no consideration for what the fans want or what they feel they deserve. As much as that drives us crazy, that's the way it should be. My only hope, aside from Snow making the right pick, is that fans don't immediately turn on the Islanders if the pick isn't Tavares. Most fans have never even seen any of these three play. Let's not be so quick to judge this pick based on what we think we want. There will be plenty of time to judge the 2009 Draft over the next fifteen or so years.