Mock Draft: 2003...

Ah, the 2003 NHL Entry Draft, arguably the deepest since 1990, when the top 5 were Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci, and Jaromir Jagr (also in the 1st round: Darryl Sydor at 7, Derian Hatcher at 8, Brad May at 14, Keith Tkachuk at 19, Martin Brodeur at 20, Bryan Smolinksi at 21).

And of course, we know what the Rangers and Islanders did. Hugh Jessiman at 12th overall, the only player in the ’03 Draft to never play an NHL game. Robert Nilsson at 15th overall, who wasn’t even a great player before he was drafted, and certainly isn’t now in Edmonton.

Let’s take a look back at that draft and see the spots players should have gone in hindsight, and who was actually taken there.

I pretended that Draft Day trades never happened. For instance, Pittsburgh actually traded up to #1 (from #3) because they wanted to draft the same goalie that Carolina wanted to draft. In my world, Florida still picked 1st, and the Penguins went 3rd overall.

Consider this a Mock Draft, 6 and a half years later...

#1, Florida, Dion Phaneuf
(Went 9th to Calgary)
Actual Selection: Marc-Andre Fleury, by Pittsburgh
The Penguins and Hurricanes both wanted Fleury, so Pittsburgh traded with Florida, who was set in the goalie position with Roberto Luongo. They took Fleury, and won their Stanley Cup 6 seasons later, so you can’t fault them, but Phaneuf is the biggest difference-maker in the whole 2003 NHL Draft.

#2, Carolina, Zach Parise
(17, New Jersey)
Actual Selection: Eric Staal
Carolina also won a Stanley Cup during Staal’s incredible rookie year, and he is going to be good for a decade, but Parise is more of a game-breaker, just a notch under Phaneuf in terms of being able to decide a game.

#3, Pittsburgh, Ryan Getzlaf
(19, Anaheim)
Actual Selection: Nathan Horton by Florida
Florida saw huge things in Horton, who had good numbers in the OHL along with a mean streak. Getzlaf’s numbers were slightly less than Horton’s, but he has proven to be a solid NHL player while Horton is constantly rumored to be traded.

#4, Columbus, Eric Staal
(2, Carolina)
Actual Selection: Nikolai Zherdev
You can’t blame Columbus for picking Zherdev. He had - and still has - incredible talent, but no one in North America has been able to tap into it, and he’s now home in Russia.


#5, Buffalo, Marc-Andre Fleury
(1, Pittsburgh)
Actual Selection: Thomas Vanek
Vanek is a very good player who has been wildly inconsistent, but if he can play every year like he did in 2006-07 (43-41-84) he can live up to his 5th overall selection.

#6, San Jose, Thomas Vanek
(5, Buffalo)
Actual Selection: Milan Michalek
It’s hard to see what the Sharks saw in Michalek, a player who scored a total of 9 goals in two seasons before being drafted ahead of Parise and Getzlaf. In a perfect world, they would have gotten Vanek instead.

#7, Nashville, Corey Perry
(28, Anaheim)
Actual Selection: Ryan Suter
Suter is good, for sure. At the time, Nashville needed defensive help, but to be honest, they needed all the help they could’ve gotten. Perry satisfies a lot of needs - great offensive skill and a lot of grit, both of which make him invaluable on the power play.

#8, Atlanta, Shea Weber
(49, Nashville)
Actual Selection: Bradyon Coburn
Coburn is good and has great potential - not that Atlanta would know, seeing as he was traded straight up for aging Alexei Zhitnik in 2007. Fact is though, after Phaneuf, Weber was the best defenseman in this draft. Nashville did great in selecting both him and Suter, though they drafted Suter first.

#9, Calgary, Nikolai Zherdev
(4, Columbus)
Actual Selection: Phaneuf
The Flames stole Phaneuf here. Think Columbus would have liked that pick back? Zherdev, though, is still an immense talent, like I said 5 spots earlier. He has incredible skill, and it’s a shame it never got put to use in the NHL.

#10, Montreal, Mike Richards
(24, Philadelphia)
Actual Selection: Andrei Kostitsyn
Kostitsyn will never warrant being a Top 10 pick, while Richards quickly went from unknown player to captain of the Flyers. As with Nashville and Shea Weber, Richards wasn’t even Philadelphia’s first pick of the Draft.

#11, Philadelphia, Brent Seabrook
(14, Chicago)
Actual Selection: Jeff Carter
Philadelphia had previously received Phoenix’s 1st round pick during the season, and took Carter. Can you imagine how dangerous the Flyers would be on the blueline if they had Seabrook back there? Carter is a good player, no doubt, and he scored 46 goals last year and might hit 40 this year, but Seabrook is still improving while it seems Carter might have already hit his peak.


#12, New York Rangers, Braydon Coburn
(8, Atlanta)
Actual Selection: Hugh Jessiman
A note to future GMs: Don’t pick a player because he’s from nearby and grew up a fan of your team. Hugh Freakin’ Jessiman? This guy is the laughingstock of this draft, while Coburn is quickly becoming a great defenseman. Plus, with Coburn, the Rangers wouldn’t have needed to sign Wade Redden, right?

In actuality, the Rangers over-drafted Jessiman. He was supposed to be a power forward in the John LeClair mold who was predicted to go in the late 1st round. The Rangers drafted him this high because they wanted a local guy, but it just never panned out.

#13, Brent Burns, LA
(20, Minnesota)
Actual Selection: Dustin Brown
I can’t possibly blame LA for drafting Brown, a hard-hitting, American-born RW who is one of my favorite non-Ranger players in the league. And people might tell me that Burns is overrated, but I’m very high on him and I think given the right team (a.k.a., not Minnesota), Burns can light this league up.

#14, Chicago, Jaroslav Halak
(271, Montreal)
Actual Selection: Seabrook
Chicago lucked out by still having Seabrook on board. In fact, they had a very good draft. But who let Halak slip to the 9th round?

#15, New York Islanders, Patrice Bergeron
(45, Boston)
Actual Selection: Robert Nilsson
Nilsson had a half-decent year the year he was drafted, yet stunk the next year, and the next, and the next. His biggest contribution to the Islanders was being traded away as part of the Ryan Smyth deal in ’07. Bergeron’s biggest contribution to Boston: 73 points in ‘05-’06 and 70 the next year before almost breaking his neck the next season. He would look good centering the 2nd line for the Islanders, no?

#16, Boston, Dustin Brown
(13, LA)
Actual Selection: Steve Bernier, San Jose
San Jose traded up to take Bernier, who had lit up the junior leagues. His transition to the NHL hasn’t been smooth though, and he is now on the 3rd line on his 3rd team, nowhere near a first-round pick.

#17, Edmonton, Joe Pavelski
(205, San Jose)
Actual Selection: Zach Parise, New Jersey
The Devils jumped at the opportunity to draft Parise after the Rangers, Islanders, and everyone else skipped by him. Funny thing is, Pavelski actually had better numbers in the season prior to being drafted than Parise did, yet he was in the obscure USHL (Parise played in the NCAA) and fell to #205. Looking back, both Pavelski and Parise were great steals.

#18, Washington, Dustin Byfuglien
(245, Chicago)
Actual Selection: Eric Fehr
Byfuglien was an offensive-defenseman in juniors who transitioned very nicely to the NHL game and now plays both D and RW. Fehr was a low-scoring playing in juniors who actually had 2 great years after he was drafted, 50 and 59 goals. He’s been on the back burner in Washington though, and it’s clear he won’t ever be a Top 6 forward on a team that features Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, and Nick Backstrom.

#19, Anaheim, Nathan Horton
(3, Florida)
Actual Selection: Ryan Getzlaf
A great late pick by Anaheim, getting someone who was Top 5 in this draft. Horton played in Oshawa in the OHL and scored 68 points in his draft year, 3rd on the team (oddly enough, #1 was never drafted and #2 went in the 4th round). Makes you wonder what stood out about Horton, who has turned into a good player but nowhere close to a 3rd overall selection.

#20, Minnesota, David Backes
(62, St. Louis
Actual Selection: Brent Burns
A good selection by Burns, though he is probably not fit for the way the Wild play. The Blues saw something in Backes and traded up to 62 to get him, and he’s worked out well. He’s a talented player who can hit, score, and fight. What more can you want?

#21, San Jose, Tobias Enstrom
(239, Atlanta)
Actual Selection: Mark Stuart, Boston
San Jose traded up with Boston to take Steve Bernier while Boston took Stuart here, who wasn’t extremely talented in the USHL or NCAA, and still isn’t in the NHL. He has played 2 full seasons as a Bruin, scoring a total of 25 points in those games. He’ll never be worthy of a 1st round pick, especially when Sweden’s Enstrom was available, though Enstrom didn’t blossom until a few years later.

#22, New Jersey, Jeff Carter
(11, Philadelphia)
Actual Selection: Marc-Antoine Pouliot
Carter went 11th and has had a few good seasons and can definitely score. The Oilers traded down (New Jersey leapt up to take Parise) and took Pouliot, who had a great couple of years in the QMJHL, but has never done it on a professional level. He lights up the AHL when he is down there, but can’t keep up in the NHL.

#23, Vancouver, Ryan Suter
(7, Nashville)
Actual Selection: Ryan Kesler
Kesler is a hard-working player but he probably will never play top-line minutes or score top-line points. Suter is a very good defenseman for Nashville, but he could have been drafted lower than 7th.

#24, Philadelphia, Loui Eriksson
(33, Dallas)
Actual Selection: Mike Richards
The Flyers stole Richards here. He quickly became a force for them - and their captain. Eriksson fell to the 2nd round, though he had better numbers than Horton, Jessiman, and Nilsson.

#25, Tampa Bay, Bernier
(16, San Jose)
Actual Selection: Anthony Stewart, Florida
Florida traded two 2nd round picks and a 6th to Tampa to take Stewart before anyone else did. After all, he was a hard-hitting RW with good offensive skill who was highly-touted. It just hasn’t worked for him in the NHL, as he has 12 points in 105 games and seems destined for a career in the minors.

#26, Maxim Lapierre, LA
(61, Montreal)
Actual Selection: Brian Boyle
LA had 3 picks in the 1st round here, and Boyle was their 2nd. A Ranger now, he was a great high school player when he was drafted. Lapierre was drafted by his hometown Canadiens and adds grit as a 4th liner with great potential should he ever be moved to the 2nd line. He is a Sean Avery type player, and while Boyle is a decent player who is a good penalty killer, Lapierre is a better choice here.

#27, Kyle Quincey, LA
(132, Detroit)
Actual Selection: Jeff Tambellini
Funny enough, the Kings had Quincey for 1 season, he played great, and was traded in part of the Ryan Smyth deal. He’s a solid defenseman with good upside, while Tambellini, well, Islander fans know. He’s a good player who can’t connect in the NHL but puts up great numbers in the AHL.

#28, Dallas, Brian Elliot
(291, Ottawa)
Actual Selection: Corey Perry, Anaheim
Seeing Perry still on the board, the Ducks jumped up and took him, and he rewarded them handsomely. Elliot was the 2nd to last pick in the draft, and while it has taken him a while to find himself, he has a good future as a starter in the NHL.

#29, Nigel Dawes, Ottawa
(149, Rangers)
Actual Selection: Patrick Eaves
Dawes is a speedy forward with a good shot, who, if given the chance, can be a Top 6 forward. He never got that chance in New York. Eaves was offensive at Boston College, but has found a spot on NHL rosters as a 3rd/4th liner. He’ll chip in 5-10 goals a year but you can never say that he was worth going 29th overall.

#30, St. Louis, Patrick O’Sullivan
(56, Minnesota)
Actual Selection: Shawn Belle
Belle was a curious selection - he was a stay-at-home defenseman who could have been picked later in the draft. He has played 11 career games in the NHL and now is in Montreal’s farm system. O’Sullivan could have been a Top 10 pick but his well-documented family troubles (a very abusive father who he filed a restraining order against) steered teams away from him. The Wild took him 56th overall, a value selection at that point. He had one good year with LA and now is in Edmonton, where he is struggling, but so is the team. Given the right situation, O’Sullivan can still do damage in this league.

Good Stuff Tonight...

I try not to be one of "those fans" - you know, the type who sulks and glooms and says the team is horrible after a loss, but they're the first one to chant "We Want the Cup" after a convincing win.

However, tonight was a good game. The difference between Edmonton and Vancouver, between 1,160 kilometers or 721 miles (thank you, Google Maps), was the offense. It was firing tonight. They took advantage of power plays. (The 0% on the power play was misleading in Vancouver, by the way. Chris Higgins scored a second after one expired.) They swarmed the net. They passed well. But more importantly, they took shots. Take a shot, you never know what will happen.

They had 23 shots in Vancouver - 14 in the second period and then 9 combined in periods 1 and 3. Tonight, they had 39. Phil Esposito always says - and I'm sure Alex Ovechkin will concur - you can't score if you don't shoot. Dan Girardi had a great pass/shot today that Sean Avery deflected. It didn't go in, but it was close. Get the puck to the net. If they don't get the puck to the net, Marian Gaborik doesn't one-hand that last goal home.

The effort was definitely there tonight...

Aaron Voros - Horrible 1st period, but he did play better in the 2nd and 3rd... saving his job for another day. Granted, he probably only had another 3 minutes all game, but they were better than his first minute, where he took 2 penalties. When he swung his stick at an Oilers' knees (can't remember which Oiler) and took a two-minute minor, did you see how *shocked* he was? How could he be surprised! It looked like he was cutting down a tree!

(By the way, I've never used the two asterisks on a word before in my life.)

Brian Boyle - Good ol' T-Bone. How many open nets can a man miss in one period? The answer, it seems, is two... twice. But he had a few good shots, a couple of good hits, and played like a 4th line player should: Good enough for the coach not to be nervous to put you out on the ice.

Chris Higgins - I won't profess him a great pickup yet, although we're all happy he is here instead of Scott Gomez. However, isn't it amazing how much better he is playing since he scored one goal? He has another goal already and played inspired, tough hockey tonight. If only he would do a move on a breakaway. Every time he gets one, he just shoots, and so far, it hasn't worked.

Ryan Callahan - "Gritty." Good word to describe his play tonight, as far as most nights.

Brandon Dubinsky - Was he even out there tonight? I noticed his play as much as I noticed Healthy Scratch Donald Brashear.

Wade Redden & Michal Rozsival - Weak games as well. Redden reminds me of myself, when I was 9. Any time I got the puck, I would get scared and pass it to the nearest teammate. That's what he does. Don't believe the hype in his "great pass to spring Higgins on a breakaway." It was lucky, he was just clearing it. And Rozsival? For a defender, he sure doesn't defend. I wouldn't want him on my team during an autumnal game of capture the flag, let alone near my crease in an NHL game.

Steve Valiquette - The team played good in front of him - especially Girardi and Marc Staal. It was huge for him to win this game, especially after the Sharks game where he got shellacked. Now, like Boyle, John Tortorella should feel safe putting him into a game.

Now, let's not be overly optimistic. Edmonton is a mediocre team. They were .500 going into tonight, and they were on a slide. Sheldon Souray is hurt, significantly impacting their power play. Mike Comrie was sick. A lot of other players got hit with the flu bug also the past 10 days.

So, what did the Rangers really do? They beat up on a weak team. And sometimes, that's just what you need to get back on track. Now, let's see if they can keep up the pace against the 9-4-1 Flames, who suddenly are an offensive team.

(By the way, I love these 9:30 games. I leave work at 8:20, clean up, eat, and I'm ready for pre-game and the opening faceoff.)

Brian Boyle is Like Flash...

Here are 4 reasons I don't like when Ranger games are on Versus:

1) Doc Emerick annoys me. Not just his homer-ism for the Devils - I understand that, and he leaves a lot of it behind when the game is on national TV - but the way he talks, his phrasing, his know-it-all attitude. I know a ton of you will disagree with me, but it's one reason I don't like watching Versus games.

2) It's one big advertisement. I didn't notice it as much tonight, but last year, it seemed like every 10 seconds I was being force-fed a Bud Light or rodeo commercial.

3) My DirecTV doesn't carry Versus anymore, so I have to find watch the game elsewhere.

4) It's one big power play. It always seems that every game on Versus has more penalties called than regular games that are only on local TV. I would imagine that the referees are conditioned to call more penalties than normal for these games so that "fringe fans" can see more power plays and goals, but it really screws over the real fans who are only watching Versus because MSG or MSG+ doesn't show the game. They make those phantom calls all game long, much like when a team is playing the Penguins.

* * *

- I saw someone speed down the ice to make a defense play. As I tried to see the number on the back of the jersey, my mind only had 3 names in mind: Callahan, Dubinsky, or Lisin. magine my surprise tonight when the number read "22" and the name on the jersey was "Boyle." It's looking like Aaron Voros will be the odd man out when Sean Avery returns.

- Speaking of Brandon Dubinsky, he looks like a beast out there. Besides his scoring, his skating looks excellent and he's stronger on the puck this season than last. However, don't get too excited. Remember how awesome he was last year in the beginning? He had 12 points in 13 games in October '08 before dropping off the planet. That probably won't happen as dramatically this year, but it's still something to think about.

- I wanted Alexei Semenov to be a Ranger this year, and I felt bad that he wanted to be a Ranger, Glen Sather wanted him to, and John Tortorella wanted him to, but his wife nixed it. However, I don't think that a 7th defenseman is entirely necessary right now. Matt Gilroy has been playing great and scored his first goal tonight; Marc Staal and Dan Girardi aren't lighting it up, but they haven't been messing up; and Mike Del Zotto has looked great. He scored the past 2 games, and he had two open nets in the Penguins game where he just couldn't get his stick on the puck. Plus, he's manning the point on the power play pretty well considering he's a 19 year old who was thrown into the fire.

- What happens if and when the Rangers do find a 7th defenseman? One would hope that Wade Redden or Michal Rozsival would take a seat, but would Sather let Tortorella do that? One of Tom Renney's big mistakes was not only never sitting either of them, but relying on them for the power play. Tortorella isn't relying on them, per se, but he is using them on the 2nd unit, which is a huge mistake. I know he said he didn't watch many Ranger games before he took over last year, but didn't he hear about why Renney got fired?

What I Expect on July 1...

This is what I expect to happen on July 1 at noon, the start of free agency...

- TSN/Versus to have awkward coverage from noon until 2:00, when the signings start to happen. People like Ed Olczyk and Pierre McGuire (whose real name, by the way, no joke, is Regis) will sit talking about what might happen and periodically write text messages to other people, fishing for a story, while on the air.

- Colton Orr will not be offered a contract with the Rangers. On a related note, expect a lot more mangames missed in 2009-10 to injury without an enforcer in the lineup (remember the awful decision to sit him in Game 6 and what Donald Brashear did to Blair Betts?).

- The Islanders will sign an enforcer to protect John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, and Josh Bailey, much like the Capitals did when they signed Brashear to protect Alex Ovechkin. By the way, Orr and Brashear are both unrestricted free agents.

- Marian Hossa will sign on in Pittsburgh, citing "I think the Penguins give me the best chance to win a Cup, and I'm just happy to be here... again."

- The Rangers will not make a big splash in the free agent pool for once, mostly because they'll have no Cap-space due to 4 big splashes in the past 2 Julys.

- Noticing that they only have Aaron Voros, Mark Bell, and Brian Boyle under contract, the Rangers will go and sign another "gritty" 3rd/4th line winger who can't fight and won't score. Oh, what? Ryan Hollweg is a free agent? Quick, give him a million dollars!

- Glen Sather will once again laugh at Nik Antropov wanting $5M for his 59 points last year, while basking in the fact that he gave Chris Drury over $7M for comparable numbers.

- Bill Guerin will stay in the Atlantic division, either re-signing in Pittsburgh, or heading to Philadelphia or back to New Jersey.

- No free agents will want to play on Long Island again, regardless of who they drafted 1st overall.

- Both the Islanders and Rangers will want Mike Cammallari and his 40-goal season, but won't be able to sign him. The Rangers won't because they have no money, and the Islanders won't because, well, see above.

- The Sedin twins will not get their 12-year contracts because no GM in their right mind would give away two contracts to people who will be 40 when they expire. And no GM would be willing to pay $6M against the Cap to two different players when they are 37, 38, 39, or 40. Except, of course, Glen Sather, but luckily, the Rangers have no Cap room.

- Blair Betts and Freddy Sjostrom will not re-sign in New York. On a related note, the #1 PK will fall to around #15 or so, and Drury, Brandon Dubinsky, Michal Rozsival, etc., will be too tired to do anything on offense from playing so much PK-time.

- Journeyman Mike Sillinger will retire.

- Sather will forfeit 4 1st round draft picks by sending a $6.5M offer sheet to Vancouver for horrendously out-of-shape Kyle Wellwood.

- Instead of big, mean, passionate Antropov, Sather will opt for gutless, fancy, non-scoring Nik Zherdev.

- Instead of going for a good defenseman like Rob Scuderi, Mike Komisarek, Mattias Ohlund, or Francois Beauchemin, they'll probably take a salary-eater like Hal Gill or Marc-Andre Bergeron.

- Scuderi... Islander? He's in line a for big raise and they have the Cap-space, and he's from Syosset.