In 13 Hours...

In less than 13 hours, free agency will start. Last year, on June 30, 2008, this web site probably had 10-15 posts.

In fact, I remember one that I wrote about the 4 big free agents for the Rangers: Sean Avery, Jaromir Jagr, Brendan Shanahan, and Martin Straka. I presumed Straka would leave if Jagr stayed, that Shanahan would not be back, and Avery wouldn't either. What I didn't predict was that Avery would sign elsewhere, get banished from the NHL, and return half-priced in February. But, really, I doubt many people guessed that. I remember I also put a good word in for Mark Streit in hopes he would be a Ranger. And I said that Wade Redden was awful and no team, especially the Rangers, should overpay for him. Well.

Anyway, this year, not as many posts. The Rangers, up until about 6 hours ago, were up near the Cap, and the Islanders appear to be growing from the inside, or at least attempting to. Besides some fillers and 4th line players, the big news would be which players wouldn't be returning.

Well, with Scott Gomez gone, $5M is freed up. The 3 players I would love to see don Rangers blue next season are, in order...

Mike Cammalleri, Mike Komisarek, Rob Scuderi

Cammalleri adds instant offense at a reasonable price. He scored 39 last year and had his 2nd 80+ point season (out of 4 career seasons). Plus, he's only 27, so a 5-year deal for $24-25M wouldn't be insane.

Remember how well Komisarek would shut down Jagr? He isn't going to give you many points, but he will crush opponents, clear the crease, kill penalties, and he would go a lot way to shutting down Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin 6 times a year. Ah, but would he and Avery get along?

Scuderi will probably come cheap, maybe $1.5-2M. I think he grew up an Islanders fan, but even so, he can be enticed to playing in Manhattan. He did great in the Stanley Cup Finals, and gives his best every single shift. He would make a great 4th defenseman.

The only problem with signing D is there are so many of them. Redden, Girardi, Staal, Gilroy (according to reports, he is looking good), and Rozsival will all be on the team next season. That leaves just one or two spots and not much money to spend, since most of the Cap space should be used for scoring help (with some saved for emergencies and the trade deadline).

Should be an interesting day. Even though nothing happens until about 1:30, I'll be tuning in at noon to see how awkward it gets when nothing happens. Can't wait to see Bob McKenzie text messaging people on-air to see what's going on.

(I was happy that Dany Heatley was being sent to Edmonton, not because I want him in the West, but because I don't want the Rangers to trade a lot for him. The Rangers don't need a different $7+M deal for 5 years, especially one who requests trades from everywhere he has played. If they wanted a headcase with talent that he sometimes uses, hey, Alex Kovalev is a free agent tomorrow, too.)

What I Expect on July 1...

This is what I expect to happen on July 1 at noon, the start of free agency...

- TSN/Versus to have awkward coverage from noon until 2:00, when the signings start to happen. People like Ed Olczyk and Pierre McGuire (whose real name, by the way, no joke, is Regis) will sit talking about what might happen and periodically write text messages to other people, fishing for a story, while on the air.

- Colton Orr will not be offered a contract with the Rangers. On a related note, expect a lot more mangames missed in 2009-10 to injury without an enforcer in the lineup (remember the awful decision to sit him in Game 6 and what Donald Brashear did to Blair Betts?).

- The Islanders will sign an enforcer to protect John Tavares, Kyle Okposo, and Josh Bailey, much like the Capitals did when they signed Brashear to protect Alex Ovechkin. By the way, Orr and Brashear are both unrestricted free agents.

- Marian Hossa will sign on in Pittsburgh, citing "I think the Penguins give me the best chance to win a Cup, and I'm just happy to be here... again."

- The Rangers will not make a big splash in the free agent pool for once, mostly because they'll have no Cap-space due to 4 big splashes in the past 2 Julys.

- Noticing that they only have Aaron Voros, Mark Bell, and Brian Boyle under contract, the Rangers will go and sign another "gritty" 3rd/4th line winger who can't fight and won't score. Oh, what? Ryan Hollweg is a free agent? Quick, give him a million dollars!

- Glen Sather will once again laugh at Nik Antropov wanting $5M for his 59 points last year, while basking in the fact that he gave Chris Drury over $7M for comparable numbers.

- Bill Guerin will stay in the Atlantic division, either re-signing in Pittsburgh, or heading to Philadelphia or back to New Jersey.

- No free agents will want to play on Long Island again, regardless of who they drafted 1st overall.

- Both the Islanders and Rangers will want Mike Cammallari and his 40-goal season, but won't be able to sign him. The Rangers won't because they have no money, and the Islanders won't because, well, see above.

- The Sedin twins will not get their 12-year contracts because no GM in their right mind would give away two contracts to people who will be 40 when they expire. And no GM would be willing to pay $6M against the Cap to two different players when they are 37, 38, 39, or 40. Except, of course, Glen Sather, but luckily, the Rangers have no Cap room.

- Blair Betts and Freddy Sjostrom will not re-sign in New York. On a related note, the #1 PK will fall to around #15 or so, and Drury, Brandon Dubinsky, Michal Rozsival, etc., will be too tired to do anything on offense from playing so much PK-time.

- Journeyman Mike Sillinger will retire.

- Sather will forfeit 4 1st round draft picks by sending a $6.5M offer sheet to Vancouver for horrendously out-of-shape Kyle Wellwood.

- Instead of big, mean, passionate Antropov, Sather will opt for gutless, fancy, non-scoring Nik Zherdev.

- Instead of going for a good defenseman like Rob Scuderi, Mike Komisarek, Mattias Ohlund, or Francois Beauchemin, they'll probably take a salary-eater like Hal Gill or Marc-Andre Bergeron.

- Scuderi... Islander? He's in line a for big raise and they have the Cap-space, and he's from Syosset.

Montreal Canadiens...

From the All-Star break until the start of Free Agency on July 1, the Montreal Canadiens have a big task ahead of them. The following players become unrestricted free agents at midnight on July 1...

Forwards: Alex Tanguay, Saku Koivu, Alex Kovalev, Robert Lang, Tom Kostopoulos, Steve Begin

Defensemen: Mike Komisarek, Francois Bouillion, Patrice Brisebois, Mathieu Dandenault

That doesn't include restricted free agents Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins, and Guillaume Latrendresse.

That's 10 UFAs and 3 big-time RFAs. 

How does this affect the Rangers and Islanders?

Notice on that list the two Long Island-born players, Komisarek and Higgins. I can't speculate on what the Habs will do, but there won't be room or money for all of these players. 

Higgins had 52 points last year and was on pace for around 40 this season, but he has been out of the lineup since early December with a shoulder injury. He isn't a great player and probably never will be first-line material, but he is a real solid third-line player who can float through the lineup (he can be a banger on the 4th line or a scorer on the 2nd). He's technically a left wing, but he played center at times last year. A comparison to Higgins would be Ryan Malone.

Komisarek is the type of defender you build your team around, the type of player that every team covets. You know the type of d-man the Rangers are missing? The kind they overpaid for and hoped Wade Redden would be? This is him. He is the real deal. He doesn't play the power play a lot, but he kills penalties and he shuts down the opponents' top lines, night after night. He crushed Jaromir Jagr every time they met last year, which at the time made me angry because a) I didn't want him to injure Jagr and b) the Rangers were sorely missing a player like him.

If the Canadiens don't re-sign Komisarek, they would be making a huge mistake. Obviously, they won't deal him at the trade deadline because they'll need a warrior like him in the playoffs, so they one way to get him would be through the checkbook in the summer. Whenever you hear someone say they need a "top 2 defenseman" who can "log minutes" and "play shut-down hockey," they are talking about him. 

Now, let's just hope he grew up a Rangers fan.

Sean Avery Suspended for Free Speech...

Last year, Chris Pronger stomped - yes, stomped - on Ryan Kesler's face. The dirty player, glorified by the NHL Network and nearly every hockey pundit out there, received 8 games as a punishment. 

It was his 8th time being suspended.

Today, Sean Avery referred to all-around nice guy (is my sarcasm evident online?) Dion Phaneuf's girlfriend as "my sloppy seconds." He was suspended "indefinitely" because of conduct "detrimental to the League or game of hockey." My guess is it will be a 5-game suspension and he will be fined.

Uh, it's true, isn't it? Kim Bauer went to Phaneuf right after she broke up with Avery. One Canadian hockey player to the next. Sounds like sloppy seconds to me. She went from Avery to Long Island native Mike Komisarek to Phaneuf with barely enough time for a shower.

Here's the full text, said in Canada, where apparently they don't have freedom of speech like the States do...

"I am really happy to be back in Calgary, I love Canada. I just want to comment on how it's become like a common thing in the NHL for guys to fall in love with my sloppy seconds. I don't know what that's about. Enjoy the game tonight."

Suspended indefinitely for speaking his mind and neither cursing nor threatening a player. Apparently, it would have been less dangerous for him to step on someone's face with a skate blade (8 games), or elbow Dean McAmmond's head (1 game) after he was suspended for elbowing Thomas Holmstrom's head from behind (1), or kick Ville Nieminen with his skate (also 1 game), or cross-check Brendan Morrow in the face (2), or swing a stick at Jeremy Roenick's helmet (4 games). Maybe he should have fractured Pat Peake's thyroid cartilige when he swung his stick at his neck (Pronger received 4 games).

Oh, but calling the star of The Girl Next Door sloppy seconds is a heinous act.

Maybe the NHL was too busy reviewing Mike Mottau's vicious hit on Frans Nielsen and the subsequent 2-game suspension to actually hear what Avery heard.