Playoff Predictions...

Since my predictions are generally not entirely correct, and since everyone, their mother, and their mother's father are doing predictions, I'll keep mine short and simple. I imagine Bryan will be doing some as well tonight or tomorrow, even though his beloved Islanders are now dearly beloved. Hey, Bryan, if you want to make things interesting, let me know.

Eastern Conference
(1) Boston vs. (8) Montreal - Boston in 5
- Say what you want about the "history" between the 2 teams in the playoffs, mostly how Montreal has won 24/31 playoff series (a fraction normally reserved for longer months on a calendar), but Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, and Tim Thomas weren't on the Bruins when the Habs were whooping them. And I don't see Maurice Richard, Patrick Roy, Ken Dryden, or Larry Robinson suiting up for the Canadiens, either.

(2) Washington vs. (7) Rangers - Rangers in 7
- Sticking with my prediction from the other day. Shut down Ovechkin, keep Green in control, and score a few goals. Henrik Lundqvist will outplay Jose Theodore any day of the week, and if the over-priced players on the Rangers actually play worth half of their contract, they can and will win.

(3) Devils vs. (6) Carolina - Devils in 6
- This is the least interesting series there is in the whole playoffs, besides maybe Vancouver vs. St. Louis. I vote the Devils, because this incarnation of the '06 Champs is 3 years older, slower, and doesn't have Doug Weight or Mark Recchi. Cam Ward is overrated, as well.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Philadelphia - Penguins in 6
- Flyers have a fantastic offense with Briere, Carter, Gagne, Giroux, and Richards, and Braydon Coburn can be a game-changer. But Martin Biron, as much as I like him, is no match for Crosby, Ovechkin, and Sykora.

Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs. (8) Anaheim - SJ in 4
- San Jose would have much rathered seen St. Louis, Columbus, or Nashville, but got stuck with Anaheim. Still, they should walk by them because they're hungrier and deeper than the last time the two met.

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Columbus - Columbus in 6
- I'll give the sentimental pick to the Blue Jackets, in part because I think Steve Mason will outplay Chris Osgood/Ty Conklin. I think Antoine Vermette adds a lot of dimension to the club, and if their injured players (Freddy Modin, Derick Brassard, Rostislav Klesla) can return, they can give the Wings a good run for their money. I think the Blue Jackets can beat Detroit, but that might be the end of their run. However, if this series goes to Game 7, I would give the edge to Detroit. Jackets in 6, though, final answer.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) St. Louis - Vancouver in 4
- Vancouver has been hot, and I think Roberto Luongo is going to shut it down. Mats Sundin probably won't win his first Stanley Cup this year, but he should atleast go further in the playoffs than he has with Toronto the past 3 years.

(4) Chicago vs. (5) Calgary - Chicago in 5
- Simple: Calgary enters cold, Chicago enters hot, and with a smokin' hot goalie in Nikolai Khabibulin. He has been on fire, and if he cools off, Cristobal Huet is ready to go. Mikka Kiprusoff had a good season, but has been uncharacteristically inconsistent, which could be his downfall. Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold will help this team, but any team with Jamie Lundmark on it can't go far. Trust me.

What teams have the edge? A solid offense, a respectable defense, and a great goaltender is what you need. If Lundqvist catches fire - entirely possible - will the rest of the team follow suit? Probably not. If Ovechkin becomes Gretzky, will his goaltender become Roy? No.

So, who? Boston seems to have the total package, so does San Jose. But of the teams who are not ranked 1st in their conference, it seems Chicago has the best combo of goalie and forwards.

No, I'm Not Saying What You Think I'm Saying...

Tonight's 2-1 loss to Florida in regulation (in a "4-point game," no less) goes to show that if you sign 2nd-line players to 1st-line money and 4th-D-men to 1st-pairing money, you won't be able to score goals or stop an onslaught, no matter who is behind the bench and how good your goalie is.

The Rangers wasted cap space by signing 2nd-line centers Scott Gomez and Chris Drury to money Rick Nash, Marian Hossa, and Ilya Kovalchuk should be making. Ryan Whitney makes less than Michal Rozsival, and Zdeno Chara makes only a million more than Wade Redden.

And this is going to be the same for a long time, unless GM Glen Sather admits his mistakes and tries to take what he can for these players. It's not entirely a knock on the players - although even they'll admit they aren't playing up to their ability - but they are eating up so much cap space for such a long time that there is no light at the end of this tunnel.

Sather has admitted mistakes in the past. He signed Matt Cullen to a crazy deal, Cullen couldn't take NY, and he shipped him back to Carolina. Aaron Ward isn't on Broadway anymore, either. Adam Hall is gone. (I realize as I'm typing this that the only year he recognized mistakes from where 2006-07, also the year he let Petr Sykora leave for Edmonton when he wanted to be a Ranger. Sorry to get off topic.)

He needs to ditch some of these contracts if only for the cap room. I like Gomez as a person, but wouldn't you, as a fan, rather see the Rangers put his $7M cap hit into a proven scorer like Kovalchuk or Nash, or into a big defender like Chara or Jay Bouwmeester? Or maybe divided into a $4M player and a $3M player?

* * *

The team did seem more "attacking" today with John Tortorella behind the bench, but...

a) He has only coached 2 games now.

b) You can only squeeze so much juice from a dry lemon.

c) He had Gomez, Markus Naslund, et al, on the ice with the time winding down. Tom Renney would've done that, also. Same as for the power play - basically the same guys. Yes, they went 1-4 in Toronto, but they only had 2 shots on goal in 4 power plays!

* * *

What's worse? Missing the playoffs and getting a 1st round draft pick in the top 14, or selling some future to barely make the playoffs, lose in the first round to a superior New Jersey or Boston team, and getting a pick around 16-22?

I'm not rooting for them to lose - no way. But I do hope that if they make the playoffs they don't sell off what they have in their system just for 2 extra home games. The Islanders did that with Ryan Smyth and failed the same year that Atlanta did it with Keith Tkachuk.

We all know what will happen if they get a draft pick in the 1st round though - they'll waste it.

* * *

Crazy that after a 5-0 start and a pretty solid first two months (I think they were 11-2-1 at one point) we are talking about what happens if they miss the playoffs.

I told you those early points would be huge in February, March, and April. Imagine if they started 2-2-1? They'd be out of the Top 8 right now.

Aggravation...

It's aggravating when the Rangers put forth a decent effort and still come up blank - and they have now been outscored 8-0 in their 3 afternoon games this season (4-0 to Panthers, 3-0 to Penguins, 1-0 today to Bruins). You will see other writers and media-types call this a "good game" where they "played well" and were "shown up by a rookie goalie." All the while they were "playing down a man."

That said, my doctor told me I had high blood pressure (slightly), so I won't dwell much, but I will say a few things. (To be sure, I did enjoy this game. I thought it was great back-and-forth action, and very exciting. Another Bruins-Rangers 1-0 game that I enjoyed, I just wish the score was reversed. Since they were again shutout, a lot of flaws came to light.)

"Good game" - How good of a game could they have had if they scored 1 goal? They couldn't break through the Bruins' defense, they had no answer for Zdeno Chara's size and wingspan, and while they won a lot of battles along the boards, the one big one they lost turned into a goal.

"Played well" - Again, they couldn't penetrate the Bruins D. They'd try to split the defenders and get stood up, and Tuukka Rask would clear the puck away easily.

"Shown up by a rookie goalie" - Was Rask good? Indeed. Was he great? Not nearly. He made a few good saves, for sure. And when Michal Rozsival hit the post, he was forced to shoot at the post because Rask gave him nothing else to shoot at. But for the most part, the Rangers shot directly at him. Markus Naslund gets a rare rush, shoots right at the "B" on the goalie's chest. Same for Nikolai Zherdev in the 3rd. Earlier in the game, Zherdev has a slight 2-on-1, and instead of passing with a 50% chance of scoring, he shoots from a poor angle and reduces his chance of scoring to about 5%.

Remember when Rick DiPietro made 56 saves against the Rangers in March 2007? People hailed DP as incredible, when in fact he only had a 60-second period in which he made great saves. The rest were right at the logo or right at his pads, where a Shooter Tutor could've made the saves. The Rangers do this all the time - take a lot of crappy shots and turn the opposing goalie into an NHL Star of the Night.

"Playing down a man" - To be honest, they were better off without Dmitri Kalinin. Even Wade Redden had a decent game (sans his awful penalty when the Bruin player - I think Phil Kessel - was already past him because of his poor play).

* * *

Some of the post-game talk and nighttime talk centered on calling up Artem Anisimov because he is doing really well in the AHL for Hartford. I'm a big Anisimov fan and have been ever since they drafted him in 2006. He should've been a 1st round pick but teams were afraid he would never come over from Russia. The Rangers took a chance and it will probably pay off.

But will it pay off this year? If he comes up, who does he replace? He could take Aaron Voros's spot, but Voros plays with his heart a lot and I would rather see Petr Prucha in instead of Anisimov.

You can't sit Blair Betts or Fred Sjostrom. They are invaluable penalty killers who rarely make a mistake 5-on-5 either.

Does Colton Orr take a seat? Maybe, as he is the worst technical player on the roster. But then you call up a player from Hartford and give him 7 minutes a night? And you need Orr on the team most nights (he wasn't needed against Boston but would you like to face Philadelphia without him on the ice?).

The real culprits in today's shutout loss were Naslund, Scott Gomez, Zherdev, and Chris Drury, who was nearly invisible all day. They are relied upon for scoring and couldn't break through the defense or take shots that had any intention of going in the net.

If Renney would sit a Top 6 forward for Anisimov, I say bring him up. But don't bring him up to toil for 6 or 8 or 10 minutes a night.

Plus, like I said, Petr Prucha is waiting in the wings.

"Rangers Eager to Rise to Moment Today"...

Yes, I completely ripped off that headline from the Rangers' official web site, but it sums up what I'm thinking.

It seems that no matter what happens with this team, some problems don't go away. I'm not talking about just this year or since the lockout, I'm talking about since 1997-98 and until today.

Examples, you say?

1) The power play features too much passing and not enough shooting. This was a problem with Brian Leetch. This was a problem with Petr Nedved. This was a problem with Tom Poti. Jaromir Jagr did the same thing. Marty "The Warrior" Straka (the nickname will stick) did it, mostly to Jagr, who would pass back. Michal Rozsival, Wade Redden, Scott Gomez, and Dan Girardi do it now.

2) The Cracker Jacks at MSG are awful. All of the peanuts settle to the bottom, and by the time you've eaten that much caramel popcorn, you feel ill and don't even want to look at a peanut. This has happened from the Gretyzky-Graves era up of yore until the Gomez-Girardi era today. (I'm a little young, but I would like to know if this awfulness happened during the Giacomin-Gilbert era of the 1970s.)

3) The play poorly against bad teams. How else do you explain a decimated Islanders squad beating them last year and nearly beating them again two-and-a-half weeks ago?

4) The Rangers rise to the occasion against good teams. Okay, okay, maybe this wasn't true in 2003-04, when lost points to bottom-feeders like Atlanta, Florida, Pittsburgh, and Washington solidified their place on the outside of the playoff race (and as big-time sellers at the trade deadline).

It's like they rarely ever crush an opponent. When's the last time they scored 7 goals in a game? Without searching for game results for the past years, I can name three games. There was Game 3 against Atlanta in 2007 when they won 7-0. Earlier that year, I think on St. Patrick's Day, they scored 7 against Boston, and in January of 2006 they beat the Penguins 7-1 and had 55 shots on net, which I believed tied a 1970s team record.

But they never just beat up on a real weak team. They don't beat the Islanders 5-0, 6-1. They lose 4-3 or squeak out a 2-1 win at home on a Matt Cullen shootout goal. They don't pulverize Tampa Bay. They outshoot them 41-21 and 39-19 and win 2-1 games. You get the point.

Yet, they often play very well against good teams. This year, they even almost beat Detroit, a very rare feat for them in the past decade.

They've only played Boston once this year, and it took a Nigel Dawes goal late in the third, a Markus Naslund goal in the last minute, a nice Chris Drury shootout move, and a patient Henrik Lundqvist in the shootout to get two points. Yet, they did technically win the game.

They seem to be playing Boston at the right time right now. They were 12-1 in December, but are "only" 7-3-2 this month. One of those wins was a shootout, one was a David Krejci overtime goal, one was against an awful Ottawa team, and one was a 2-1 win against the Islanders.

Boston might be looking pedestrian (a phrase I enjoy using but do not fully understand) right now, but don't be fooled. They are a scary team. They have a solid group of role players - Krejci, Blake Wheeler (who I heard the Rangers were in on, but he chose Boston in the off-season), Milan Lucic - who never take a shift off. They have a few superstars who've bought what Claude Julien is selling, including New York castoffs Marc Savard and Zdeno Chara, and a some guys on the brink like Phil Kessel, Patrice Bergeon, and Marco Sturm who chip in points every game. Add in a very Lundqvist-like goalie in Tim Thomas (and a 1A goalie in injured Manny Fernandez), and they are dangerous. Oh, and who could forget Aaron Ward?

By the way, that photo up top is Marc Savard, not Nigel Dawes.

It should be a real good game. I hope the Rangers "rise to the moment today" and play this like a playoff game, because it could win up being a playoff preview.

And I hope Tom Renney doesn't inform them that they have been outscored 7-0 in afternoon games this year.

Notes Not From the Garden, 11/15/08...

A few things were apparent at the onset of the Rangers-Bruins game on Saturday night. First off, it was going to be a goaltending duel (much more exciting to watch than a pitching duel in baseball). Second, it was probably going to be a shootout (I prematurely predicted a 2-1 final score). Third, these two teams with their matching styles (speedy, good forwards, mediocre defense made better by excellent goaltending) would make for an intense, incredible playoff series. 

And fourth, we knew it would be a good game because I sold my tickets. I wind up going to stinkers like Dallas's crappy, sleepy win over the Rangers, and sell my tickets to Chris Drury's hat trick game against Tampa Bay and this exciting game

Ok, so a few notes. I'll keep it short so as not to bore anyone, and I'll try to keep it interesting since I assume most of you have seen the game already...

Dmitri Kalinin - Growing up, I wonder why Kalinin chose to be a defenseman. He is labeled as an offensive defenseman, has a pretty nice shot, always pinches on the point or brings the puck in deep on the rush, and he has shaky-at-best defensive ability. I think he would make a good 3rd or 4th line winger. That said, his defensive play has improved a lot since the first few games of the season, and he had a nice breakout pass on the game-tying goal.

Henrik Lundqvist - No goalie goes post-to-post quite as well as Lundqvist. And if given the choice in the shootout, there's not a goalie I would pick instead of him. He cannot possibly be faulted for Zdeno Chara's goal. He made a great save, then almost made a second.

Boston 2, Rangers 0 - There were 3 goats on the second goal by Boston. One obviously is Michal Rozsival, who is now responsible for another shorthanded goal against. Why is he still playing the points? His PPG to SHG ratio is now horrible, at atleast 2:3 or 2:4. The second goal was Kalinin, who is apparently afraid of the puck. Does he know his paychecks come at the same frequency regardless of whether or not he is injured? Instead of dropping down to block the puck like a real defensmen would do, he half-heartedly stuck his stick out. The shot still got off, and passed Lundqvist (aka goat #3). Again, Hank dropped too soon and the puck went over him. Again.

Zdeno Chara - As I once made fun of Chara, a friend of a friend who works for the Bruins told me how dedicated he is to his body. He is truly a mountain of a man. He works out religiously, doesn't drink, doesn't smoke. And it shows. For a big man, he is incredible flexible. However, Aaron Voros got by him today, and he took a necessary penalty. What is a necessary penalty? The answer is two-fold: It is one that saves a goal from possibly being scored and it is something the Rangers never take. A hooking call because Marek Malik is too slow (an outdated reference, I know), or a holding call because someone blows by Rozsival is not a good penalty. But Chara's slash on Voros might've saved a goal, and the Rangers power play is anemic anyway, so he had nothing to lose.

Ya know, Mike Milbury never should've traded him (and the second overall pick in 2001) for Alexei Yashin.

Tim Thomas  - I man-love Tim Thomas. He came into the league for 4 games at 28, then returned full-time at age 30, after hearing all of his life he would never be an NHL goalie. Then, he played great for Boston and they repaid the favor by signing Manny Fernandez. However, Thomas is still starting and is one of the best in the league this season.

Second Period - Regardless of the 2-goal defecit after the 2nd period, it was still a greatly exciting period. Of course, if the outcome of the game didn't give two points to the Rangers, I would not be saying that.

Chris Drury - I give him credit for taking abuse in front of the net. It's a necessary position for him to be in and he does it well. However, he needs to whip out that yellow board again in practice and try shooting OVER it instead of INTO it. He could've scored in the 2nd but instead shot it right at Thomas's pad. 

However, I fully retract my statement that he should be sent to Hartford. He played good all game, and his overtime pass to Ryan Callahan was why he was signed. He got knocked down, and stole the puck from 3 standing Bruin players, and passed it perfectly to Callahan. That was an All-Star play.

Wade Redden - The Rangers paid for a fast car and got a safe car instead. He has very few points and only 2 goals (none since 10/10 against Chicago), but he is a good first-passer, and has anchored the defense. Still, you can get the safety of a Volvo without paying for a Ferrari, knowwhatI'msayin? (He's overpaid. And 6 years is an awful long time.)

Dave Maloney? Really? - If Dave Maloney was chiming in on Sam and Joe's broadcast, who was doing the radio commentary? Hey, I get mad if John Giannone is filling in for Sam Rosen. I don't want Maloney filling in for... nobody. C'mon, Dave. I just want to see you talking to Ken Daneyko in the studio after the game.

Dan Marouelli - is a scumbag. Remember when Hank was continually crashed into in Washington and no penalties were given out but goals were scored on the same play? First off, his throat must be huge if he can swallow his whistle and not choke. Overtime, same play. Chuck Kobasew buzzsaws through Henrik and no penalty is called. Then, in the shootout, the puck clearly didn't cross the line, but he called it a goal. It wasn't even close. It hit the post and ended up in the crease. 

Come on, Dan. We know you hate the Rangers (maybe he's mad that Glen Sather, then-GM of his hometown Oilers, traded away Wayne Gretzky in 1988?), but like I said all of last season, don't make it so obvious. Don't force the game.

Look at the Past Month and a Half...

RANGERS POST by ZACH

On January 20, I had the great displeasure of being at The World's Most Famous Arena to see the Rangers put up a stinker, a near-shutout against the Boston Bruins. If Brandon Dubinsky didn't score in the final minute of play, it would have ended 3-0 Boston. The Rangers were in a funk, with the loss dropping them to 2-6-2 in the last ten. In fact, they only had two wins in January until this point, home wins against Buffalo and the Canadiens.

Since that time, the Rangers have gone 14-3-3.

The losses - The loss to Carolina after the All-Star break wasn't an awful game, but would have been a huge two points, especially at the time. Brendan Shanahan scored early on with a power play goal, but Carolina scored twice in two minutes in the second to break the game open. The Rangers had a second period letdown which cost them the game.

What was taught: Stop having second period letdowns. This lesson has not been learned yet. See: Win over Islanders, 3/6/08.

Then they put two stinkers up right after the comeback win in Montreal on Super Bowl Sunday. In another game I wish I wasn't at, they lost to LA 4-2 and then 4-1 to Anaheim, in a game I turned off on TV because I was so disgusted. Both games were awful but showed a big flaw.

What was taught: The Rangers can't win against Western Conference teams. The lesson might have been learned as the Rangers beat San Jose two weeks later.

Since then, they've lost once in overtime, a Mike Green power play goal in overtime. The Capitals 2nd goal was scored with 15 seconds left in the 2nd period with the 4th line on the ice. Hollweg then took a penalty near the end of regulation.

What was taught: Don't have Ryan Hollweg on the ice in crucial situations. Lesson learned. Hollweg (of whom I happen to be a big fan, regardless) has only played once since acquiring Freddy Sjostrom on Deadline Day, rendering my #44 jersey useless in March.

They had two shootout losses since the stinker against Boston in January. One was the meltdown against Montreal, the other the comeback game against the Islanders where 2 of the 3 goals against them were fluke bounces.

What was taught: They were taught that no matter the score, you could always lose. Lesson learned, as they came back from down 3-1 against the Islanders to bring it to overtime.

Moral of the Story: Learn from your losses.

***

Regarding today's matinee against Boston, it was another 1-0 shootout win, which would have been a scoreless tie circa 2003-04 and before. They had a ton of chances today but couldn't finish. Jagr, Drury, Dawes, Straka, Dubinsky, they all had golden chances but couldn't jam it home.

What would the score of the game had been if Zdeno Chara had played?