How Good Are Predictions, Part II...

Each year, I write down a bunch of predictions from "industry experts," just to see how close they are. I also write down mine to compare. Last September, I posted the results on this page. I figured that we have some off-days now between playoff rounds, and since both local teams (and even the Devils) are out, why not do this post now as opposed to September.

Last year, for the record, ESPN, Newsday's Steve Zipay, and I all had 24 points. The big winner was Dwayne Kessel, aka "Eklund," from some Internet site that spouts "rumors," with 27 points.

This year, the combatants are once again Eklund, and myself. Joining the mix are Newsday's Mark Herrman, Sports Illustrated, and our Islanders' writer Bryan. Representing a once-anonymous ESPN will be E.J. Hradek.

(Scoring: 1 point for having a team correctly missing or making the playoffs; 2 points for predicting their exact position in the Conference.)

6th Place
I am sadly bringing up the rear on this campaign. A few gambles that I took (Tampa Bay winning the Southeast, Devils missing the playoffs, Colorado winning the Northwest, Edmonton and Phoenix making the playoffs) didn't exactly pan out. In fact, of 30 positions in the NHL, the only one I hit on the nose was Minnesota at 9th in the West. Sad, sad, sad predicting. I even had the Islanders coming in 14th in the East, ahead of Atlanta. I actually only predicted 1 division winner (Detroit, 1st in the West). It also appears my Dallas versus either Montreal or the Rangers in the Finals won't happen. In fact, I even said that Sean Avery would be sipping from the Stanley Cup this June.
19 points

5th Place
I shouldn't feel so bad, though. E.J. Hradek, who works for ESPN and hosts NHL Live on XM and the NHL Network, only beat me by 3 points. He only predicted 2 division winners (Red Wings and Capitals). The also picked the Devils to miss the playoffs, as well as Boston, both of whom won their division. He predicted Edmonton to win the Northwest. I still think my Colorado prediction was better! His bold prediction of Detroit over Pittsburgh in the Finals still can happen, though.
23 points

4th Place
Newcomer Mark Herrman, subbing for Zipay this year, ended in 4th. He nailed the Rangers in 7th, but that's about it. He picked 3 division winners, all in the wrong order (Washington, Detroit, San Jose). Dallas winning the Pacific instead of San Jose was his downfall. His Detroit prediction for the Cup Finals looks good, but Montreal will not be joining them. Better luck next year.
23 points

3rd Place
The bronze medal goes to an anonymous person at Sports Illustrated, who nailed 3 spots dead-on (Atlanta, 13th; Islanders, 15th; Nashville, 10th). They predicted 2 divison winners (Washington, Detroit), but 2 of their choices for the division didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Dallas). SI did correctly choose 7 of 8 Eastern conference playoff teams, a feat only duplicated by Bryan. Their folly: Ottawa at 8th, Carolina at 9th.
26 points

2nd Place
Our own Bryan had a very strong showing, hitting 5 spots correctly (Capitals, 2nd; Philadelphia, 5th; Atlanta, 13th; his beloved Islanders, 15th; Edmonton, 11th in West). He had 4 division winners. His two misses: Penguins to win the Atlantic and Calgary to win the Northwest. His only East playoff team to miss was Tampa Bay, whom he predicted to come in 7th. They ended 14th, and his 14th team, Carolina, came in 6th. Not bad for a rookie, although his Finals prediction of San Jose hoisting the Cup at Madison Square Garden will not happen. Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.
27 points!

1st Place
It pains me, but that Eklund guy from that website again won our competition. His Eastern conference wasn't that great: his only 2-point play was Washington in 2nd, and he picked the Devils and Carolina to miss the playoffs while putting Ottawa and Buffalo in. But he made up for it in the West, correctly guessing the final positions of San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. He did pick Edmonton to win their division instead of Vancouver, but he was one of only two (with Hradek) to pick Vancouver in the playoffs. He also was the only person to think San Jose would win the West, as the other 5 of us picked Detroit 1st in the conference. However, his long-term thinking is off: Both the Habs and Sharks lost in the 1st round and will not meet up in June.
28 points

2 Things That Make Me Smile, 1 That Makes Me Mad...

Things That Make Me Happy

 by Zach

1) The Islanders must not have gotten the Rangers email about me getting a 22-game package for next season because they mailed my house (how did they get my address?) and told me that if I pay for my Islander package by October 1, I get an autographed Kyle Okposo stick. While I appreciate the offer, and it amuses me that Okposo hit on my friend at the beach, I politely declined their offer by ripping it up and tossing it in the trash.

2) The Islanders web site advertises "DP at NHL store." If there wasn't a picture of goalie Rick DiPietro, I would have been under the impression that EJ Hradek and Don LaGreca were double-teaming some poor female Washington Capitals fan at the corner of 6th and 47th in Times Square.

Thing That Makes Me Mad

 by Zach

1) I don't like to get political on this blog, even though I searched high and low for a picture of Sarah Palin in a Dayton Bombers (Columbus's ECHL team) jersey because I thought it was cool. 

But something made me very mad today. Did you know that Elliot Spitzer, former Governor of NY, passed a law a year ago decreeing it illegal in Nassau County for strippers to go topless on stage? Now, they have to wear pasties.

For the record, that was 6 months before he got de-credited -- for having unprotected sex with a high-end whore on multiple occasions.

In hockey terms, it's like Rick DiPietro enacting a law banning the curve of the blade of a forward's stick, while wearing oversized pads himself.

Or in real terms, it's like me passing a law saying strippers must wear pasties on stage.

Some people are such scumbags it amazes me. What a two-faced bastard. I didn't think he was such a douchebag when he was caught cheating on his wife (and breaking his own laws), but now I see him as an ego-maniacal hypocrite who only cares about getting his own nut off.

The NHL Network Drinking Game, Version 1.0

Truly, we are knee-deep in the dog days of summer.

Hockey is completely off the radar for many people. However, for those of us who want to keep it alive, it's a tough battle. We know better than to rely on ESPN for our sports news, but if we did, all we'd hear about are the Red Sox, the Yankees, and Brett Favre. Frankly, we've had enough. So we turn to the one ally that hasn't let us down yet - the NHL Network.

You thought I was going to say alcohol, didn't you? Well, you're in luck. We here at The Rivalry have got both bases covered. Stay cool with some frosty brews (we recommend Molson Ice) and some hockey action! What could be better? This drinking game is not necessarily designed to get you hammered, though you're more than welcome to actually play along if you'd like. Hey, anything's better than more Brett Favre news, right?

Enjoy!

Note: We chose not to create rules for the random playoff games they've been showing lately. Quite frankly, we can't in good conscience recommend watching Game 1 of some first-round series that didn't mean anything.

GENERAL RULES
These rules go for everything. The basics upon which the NHL Network is built.
- If your program is hosted by Dan Pollard - drink
- If your program is NOT hosted by Dan Pollard or Todd Lewis - check your listings; clearly, you aren't watching the NHL Network.
- If a Canadian team is prominently featured - drink
- If you're thrown off by the wrong feed (as in, you're expecting to hear Gary Thorne, but you hear Bob Cole instead) - chug
- If you catch an announcer being blatantly biased toward a Canadian team/player - drink
- If you catch an announcer categorizing a European as soft or lazy without a good reason - chug
- If the ticker on the bottom of the screen shows something that happened more than three days ago - chug
- If the program is clearly stalling for time (i.e. a Classic Series where the last segment has nothing to do with the series itself) - drink

NHL ON THE FLY
It's not currently airing... but those who watch it regularly during the season know it's the best NHL recap show out there.
- If the analyst is a coach that recently got fired - chug
- If an analyst is critiquing a player he coached/drafted - drink
- If the analyst awkwardly tries to take credit for that player's success - chug
- If you're watching a replay of On The Fly Final - take one drink for each time you've watched it already
- If you can tell the exact point in the intro when it switches from tonight's highlights to a pre-recorded package - chug
- If they play the other team's announcer's calls when showing your team's game - drink
- If the hosts trash your team - chug
- If there aren't any shootouts to recap at show's end - drink
- If the hosts are plugging a different game for "Our North American viewers" - drink

COMMERCIALS
Oh, boy... If you watch the NHL Network regularly, you probably want to kill yourself when these ads come on. But they're funny. Pick one that's "safe"; you're exempt from drinking during that ad. The rest, though, should have you blitzed in no time.
- If a commercial features Billy Mays, the patron saint of infomercials - chug
- If the commercial is a rather shady infomercial (My Free Laptop, etc.) - drink
- If it's a "Moment On Ice" - drink
- If you correctly guessed which "Moment On Ice" it was - chug
- Drink every time you hear the following phrases...
+ "Young Nathan has a rare blood disodda"
+ "It only takes about an ow-uh!"
+ "A little pahsta and a steak"
+ "There's no 'I' in hockey. Period."
+ "Government coupon pro-grum"
+ "The game has changed. So should the way you watch it."
+ "Hosted by" (as in, "Nobody cares who's hosting this crappy NHL DVD, but we're going to include it in the commercial anyway")
- Every time "The Coach" appears - drink
- If "The Coach" appears twice in a row - chug
- If someone recognizes "The Coach" from his bit role in "Tommy Boy" - chug
- If you've ever actually wondered why our sport isn't called puckey - kill the beer, then smash the bottle over your head
- If they show the ad about the digital converter boxes - drink
- If you find yourself wondering who would have this network (available on Cablevision only via a special package) and still be watching on an analog set - drink
- If the ad with the Stanley Cup being held by all the different players comes on - don't drink. Watch it and appreciate how awesome it is. Then take a long chug if you're convinced ESPN will rip this off for next year's NBA Finals and everyone will say how innovative it is.
- If one commercial is significantly louder than the others - drink
- If your spouse yells at you to turn the TV down because of that loud commercial - chug
- If a program ends with the "NHL Network" bumper ad and is followed immediately by an ad for the "Just Like Me" DVD - chug

NHL LIVE!
On hiatus until September 15th. Still, an awesome show.
- If you're watching the show on replay - drink - If E.J. Hradek isn't in the studio - drink
- If there's a cardboard cutout of E.J. in his place - chug
- If the cardboard cutout has been defaced in some way - chug again
- If the NHL Store looks empty - drink
- If you see someone make a purchase - drink
- If someone buys a jersey of a player who's no longer on that team - chug
- If Don trashes the media for treating the NHL unfairly - raise your bottle in agreement, then take a nice big swig
- If you ever catch Don (employed by ESPN Radio) or E.J. (employed by ESPN.com) on the verge of trashing ESPN, then think better of it and stop - drink
- If they actually go through with it - kill a beer
- If E.J. forgets who the day's hosts are - drink
- If a caller talks for more than a minute straight - drink
- If the hosts actually cut the caller off - chug

VINTAGE GAMES
The real shining star of the NHL Network. Enjoy the games of yesteryear while simultaneously enjoying some nice Canadian brew.
- If the game is in black and white - chug
- If there are no ads on the boards - drink
- If a goalie is wearing a Jason Voorhees mask - drink
- If a goalie is using an old waffle-style blocker - chug
- If the game is being played at an arena that doesn't exist anymore - drink
- If the arena still exists, but now has a corporate name - kill a beer
- Every time someone makes a remark about how much different the game looks (i.e. the goalie's equipment, the size of the players, the amount of open ice) - drink
- If a goalie lets in a particularly bad goal - drink
- If you can't tell which team is at home by the color of their uniforms because you aren't sure which color the home team wore during the game's time period - chug
- If a decent portion of the game is cut out with no explanation - chug
- If you see something that would be totally unacceptable today (i.e. a huge brawl, uncalled obstruction penalties) - drink
- If the game typifies the style of that era (i.e. a high-scoring game from the 80s, a snoozefest from the turn of the century) - drink

CLASSIC SERIES
Past playoff series, assembled for our viewing pleasure. Some are real duds; some truly are classics. All are to be enjoyed.
- If you already know what happens in the series - drink
- If it's a historically significant series (i.e. a Cup Final, Game 7 OT winner, etc.) - drink
- If a team tries changing their goalie to change their luck - drink
- If it actually works - kill a beer
- If a team's star player gets shut down - drink
- If the star player wakes up just in time to put the screws to the underdog - chug
- If an interview with the star player reveals that he "knew'd he'd start getting the bounces" - kill a beer
- If a coach complains to the media about the officiating - chug
- If a game ends with an overtime goal by a role player - drink
- If the series was a sweep - chug
- If a player picks up the conference championship trophy - kill a beer
- If they show the post-series handshake line - drink

EDIT: We forgot about the Top Ten. Whoops. That'll be covered in Version 2.0!