2010-11 Predictions

Yesterday, Zach cited my proficiency at pre-season predictions (nice alliteration). I managed to beat out "experts" like Eklund and E.J. Hradek, which is going on my resume ASAP. After a nice little celebration, which consisted of merely a smile and a fist pump, I submit my predictions for 2010-11. Just a note for purposes of full disclosure, I went on a nice five-month break from everything that relates to hockey. If these predictions make no sense, I'd cite that as a reason. Of course, if these predictions do come true, forget I said anything.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Washington

2) New Jersey

3) Boston

4) Pittsburgh

5) NY Rangers

6) Montreal

7) Tampa Bay

8) Toronto

9) Philadelphia

10) Buffalo

11) NY Islanders

12) Atlanta

13) Ottawa

14) Carolina

15) Florida

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Jose

2) Detroit

3) Vancouver

4) Chicago

5) Los Angeles

6) Colorado

7) Nashville

8) St. Louis

9) Edmonton

10) Columbus

11) Calgary

12) Anaheim

13) Phoenix

14) Dallas

15) Minnesota

CONFERENCE FINALS

Washington over NY Rangers

Detroit over Chicago

CUP FINAL

Detroit over Washington in 6

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS

Picking the right teams to finish in the right spots is the easy part of prognostication. The far more difficult (and fun) proposition is to predict the events of the season. As I see it, the season will include the following elements...

 - A big-name coach will be fired before November 15. My prediction: John Tortorella.

 - An unheralded team will come out of nowhere to start red-hot, defying "experts". Last year, it was Phoenix and Colorado. This year, I pick Tampa Bay and St. Louis.

 - The league's new blind-side hits rule will prove itself to be woefully ineffective, resulting in at least one suspension in the league's first month.

 - Islanders fans will pine for Billy Jaffe by the time the first period ends tonight. Fans will also proclaim the new radio deal with Hofstra as "bush-league" and clamor for the return of the simulcast before ever hearing a game on the radio.

 - None of the agonizing decisions and heated debates over who should be the 23rd man on an NHL roster will amount to anything.

 - This year's Winter Classic will draw the highest ratings and interest levels the NHL has ever seen.

 - The Islanders-Rangers rivalry will finally receive a shot in the arm, with at least one big fight or controversial incident helping these games reach their potential.

 - Doug Weight and Dwayne Roloson will be traded at the trade deadline.

 - The Islanders will get off to a slow start, but nobody will question the bizarre split-squad games as a potential reason why.

 - Rick DiPietro will finally make it through a season in perfect health.

 - Henrik Lundqvist will finally get to go on a ridiculous playoff run.

 - Ilya Kovalchuk will win the Hart Trophy.

 - The Jack Adams Award will go to a first-year coach who makes a big difference. I predict Guy Boucher of Tampa Bay.

 - At least one team will unveil a new retro third jersey that will end up replacing their current uniforms next year.

 - The NHL will re-sign with NBC, but will take its cable package to TBS.

 - Bad officiating and inconsistent discipline will become a huge issue yet again, this time playing a significant role in the Stanley Cup Final.

Mid-Life Crisis: The Psyche of the New York Islanders

Earlier today, Zach - who made his triumphant return earlier today - sent me a text informing me that the Islanders turned 38 years old today. He also suggested that perhaps they're going through a mid-life crisis right now and that may explain why they're getting younger. While I'm sure their motives for their youth movement are simply to create the best team possible, as evidenced by the Blackhawks, Capitals and Penguins in recent years, Zach has a pretty good point.

You probably know some people who peaked a little too early in life. You know the kind of person I'm talking about - the prom king, the high school quarterback, the head cheerleader. They had the world at their fingertips in their early years, but now they ring up groceries or drive UPS trucks. If you were to meet one of these people now for the first time, you'd be cordial, but you'd be underwhelmed, maybe even a bit condescending. After all, you don't end up like that without screwing up somewhere.

The New York Islanders fit this mold. Many younger fans can never recall a time when the club was even competitive, let alone dominant. Hockey fans in New York are either born into rooting for the Islanders, or they grow up pitying the Islanders. And yeah, you could say the Islanders have been going through a mid-life crisis for some time. For a very long time, you had the constant parading of former greats - the virtual equivalent of a 30-year-old gas attendant wearing his high school football jersey to work. "Hey, remember what I used to be?" Sadly, we don't.

Today, the Islanders are firmly entrenched in a battle against Father Time. They're the balding guy who purchases a Mustang and buys a vanity license plate in order to feel and look young. They're the mom who wears the same clothes as her teenage daughter. Looking back at what once was, struggling to find modern-day relevancy. You could make the argument that reverting to the classic blue uniforms is the same type of thing - reinventing the team didn't work, so let's simply stick with what once worked.

Thirty-eight years is a long time. Too young to be classic and historic, too old to be new and cutting-edge. What's the answer - the RIGHT answer? Reconcile the past with the present. Create a new image in the same vein as the old one, but updated to meet modern times. Reach out to the loyalists for support, but make new fans at the same time.

That's what the Islanders are doing. And they're doing a great job.

You have to admit that it's not easy to do what the Islanders are trying to do. Like many of us, they've gotten stale and need to recharge, to recreate the Islanders image. You see it in publications all over North America. Nobody expects anything out of the Islanders in 2010-11, and why should they? The Islanders were bottom-five in points and attendance last year. Two of their three best players are out for the foreseeable future. Plus, the team is always fighting the perception of being a joke. But widespread organizational change takes time, and this is no different.

What will become of this Islanders team? Will they emulate the example of the Blackhawks and Penguins, rebuilding through the draft and eventually becoming champions? Or will they be more like the Edmonton Oilers, who have been rebuilding for the past twenty years? It's tough to say. But you get the impression that the Islanders have identified their issues and are trying to address them, just like the mid-life crisis crowd or anyone else stuck in a rut. Sometimes, the best thing you can do is to simply survive, to just ride it out and hope for the best. We can't say if the Islanders will be a playoff team this year, but at least they're trying to get better the right way. And that's a hell of a lot better than clinging to the glory days or, worse, shipping the team off to Hamilton or Kansas City.

Setbacks and Opportunities

The Islanders haven't even played a pre-season game yet, and they already have injury problems.

Mark Streit: Shoulder surgery, out for 6 months.

Kyle Okposo: Shoulder surgery, out for 2 months.

That's 100-120 man games lost to injury, and the season is still two weeks away. Feel free to insert your own joke about how Rick DiPietro's inevitable injury will cause those numbers to skyrocket.

If you're the Islanders, you might think about ratcheting expectations down a little bit. But you can you do that when your ticket prices are at an all-time high? Like it or not, injuries to your two best players don't make it okay to miss the playoffs again. Instead, the Islanders will need players - both the big names and the unknown ones - to step up.

These injuries to Streit and Okposo are devastating, but they also provide a tremendous opportunity to guys like Calvin de Haan, Nino Niederreiter, Travis Hamonic and countless others, including the newly-acquired Mike Mottau. These players now have the chance to step up and make a significant impact on the big club. It's also an opportunity for players like John Tavares and Josh Bailey to take a more active role in the leadership of this club.

Feel free to wallow a bit - after all, a 2010 without Mark Streit and Kyle Okposo is hardly what you expected. But life goes on, and so do the Islanders' playoff chances - and the expectations that they'll be significantly better than the draft lottery. The lost production and leadership of Streit and Okposo has to come from somewhere, and it'll be very interesting and exciting to see who steps up.