How Good Are Predictions, Part II...

Each year, I write down a bunch of predictions from "industry experts," just to see how close they are. I also write down mine to compare. Last September, I posted the results on this page. I figured that we have some off-days now between playoff rounds, and since both local teams (and even the Devils) are out, why not do this post now as opposed to September.

Last year, for the record, ESPN, Newsday's Steve Zipay, and I all had 24 points. The big winner was Dwayne Kessel, aka "Eklund," from some Internet site that spouts "rumors," with 27 points.

This year, the combatants are once again Eklund, and myself. Joining the mix are Newsday's Mark Herrman, Sports Illustrated, and our Islanders' writer Bryan. Representing a once-anonymous ESPN will be E.J. Hradek.

(Scoring: 1 point for having a team correctly missing or making the playoffs; 2 points for predicting their exact position in the Conference.)

6th Place
I am sadly bringing up the rear on this campaign. A few gambles that I took (Tampa Bay winning the Southeast, Devils missing the playoffs, Colorado winning the Northwest, Edmonton and Phoenix making the playoffs) didn't exactly pan out. In fact, of 30 positions in the NHL, the only one I hit on the nose was Minnesota at 9th in the West. Sad, sad, sad predicting. I even had the Islanders coming in 14th in the East, ahead of Atlanta. I actually only predicted 1 division winner (Detroit, 1st in the West). It also appears my Dallas versus either Montreal or the Rangers in the Finals won't happen. In fact, I even said that Sean Avery would be sipping from the Stanley Cup this June.
19 points

5th Place
I shouldn't feel so bad, though. E.J. Hradek, who works for ESPN and hosts NHL Live on XM and the NHL Network, only beat me by 3 points. He only predicted 2 division winners (Red Wings and Capitals). The also picked the Devils to miss the playoffs, as well as Boston, both of whom won their division. He predicted Edmonton to win the Northwest. I still think my Colorado prediction was better! His bold prediction of Detroit over Pittsburgh in the Finals still can happen, though.
23 points

4th Place
Newcomer Mark Herrman, subbing for Zipay this year, ended in 4th. He nailed the Rangers in 7th, but that's about it. He picked 3 division winners, all in the wrong order (Washington, Detroit, San Jose). Dallas winning the Pacific instead of San Jose was his downfall. His Detroit prediction for the Cup Finals looks good, but Montreal will not be joining them. Better luck next year.
23 points

3rd Place
The bronze medal goes to an anonymous person at Sports Illustrated, who nailed 3 spots dead-on (Atlanta, 13th; Islanders, 15th; Nashville, 10th). They predicted 2 divison winners (Washington, Detroit), but 2 of their choices for the division didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Dallas). SI did correctly choose 7 of 8 Eastern conference playoff teams, a feat only duplicated by Bryan. Their folly: Ottawa at 8th, Carolina at 9th.
26 points

2nd Place
Our own Bryan had a very strong showing, hitting 5 spots correctly (Capitals, 2nd; Philadelphia, 5th; Atlanta, 13th; his beloved Islanders, 15th; Edmonton, 11th in West). He had 4 division winners. His two misses: Penguins to win the Atlantic and Calgary to win the Northwest. His only East playoff team to miss was Tampa Bay, whom he predicted to come in 7th. They ended 14th, and his 14th team, Carolina, came in 6th. Not bad for a rookie, although his Finals prediction of San Jose hoisting the Cup at Madison Square Garden will not happen. Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.
27 points!

1st Place
It pains me, but that Eklund guy from that website again won our competition. His Eastern conference wasn't that great: his only 2-point play was Washington in 2nd, and he picked the Devils and Carolina to miss the playoffs while putting Ottawa and Buffalo in. But he made up for it in the West, correctly guessing the final positions of San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. He did pick Edmonton to win their division instead of Vancouver, but he was one of only two (with Hradek) to pick Vancouver in the playoffs. He also was the only person to think San Jose would win the West, as the other 5 of us picked Detroit 1st in the conference. However, his long-term thinking is off: Both the Habs and Sharks lost in the 1st round and will not meet up in June.
28 points

A Successful Night in Nassau...

Mark down January 13, 2009 as a success for me.

Awkward moment involving a young child and myself during the game: CHECK

Almost get into a fight in the bathroom: CHECK

A delicious pretzel twist: CHECK (although around the midway point of it, it magically turned from very hot to ice cold)

Two points for the Rangers: CHECK

An All-Star performance from Henrik Lundqvist: CHECK

Islanders coming hard at the Rangers: CHECK

An awful third period by the Islanders: CHECK (excluding the last 94 seconds)

An Islander getting injured: CHECK (be sure to note that I don't wish them injuries - far from it - but it seems that every game or every two games, someone is getting hurt)

Rangers shooting from the perimeter and making even 3rd-string goaltenders look like Jacques Plante: CHECK

Guy next to me commenting if Scott Gomez was still a Ranger: CHECK (hey, Gomez had one good shot today, that's a start)

A spirited effort by Petr Prucha: CHECK

An abundance of Nikolai Zherdev jerseys: CHECK

Me and the lady in front of me decreeing that Martin Straka was a warrior: CHECK

Guy behind me yelling "SUCKS" after we chanted "Hen-Rik!": CHECK

Me saying that he did not indeed suck, and that he was a top 3 goalie in the league: CHECK

On a different note, does anybody want to assist me in a letter writing campaign to Newsday? Now, I know that the print media is nearly a dead form because of the Internet, and to be honest, I don't read the hockey articles much because I know what they'll say. However, today's Newsday featured about 4 pages on the Knicks, 4 on the Giants, 2 on the Jets, and articles on the Mets and a full page devoted to Ricky Henderson and Mark McGwire. Uh, is this 1998?

The only mention of the Islander-Ranger game was an advertisement put in by the Islanders. Not one beat writer had a story published about the game. Not one. Yet, the Knicks, the laughingstock of a stupid, corrupt, boring league, get back AND front page mentions and multiple pages.

You KNOW that the well-fought rivalry game that happened tonight will not be back-cover-worthy tomorrow and instead it will be Eddy Curry thinking about suing the driver who claimed he was sexually harassed by Curry.

Despicable. We have a good sport here that is infinitely more entertaining that baseball and basketball. Ah, if only fantasy hockey was as fun as fantasy football. Imagine that?

Back to the original topic. A good night at the Coliseum, and the only thing missing was a vocalist during the National Anthem. That silent version was sort of awkward.

* * * 

If you click this link, you will see a picture of my friend Tom (in the blue Drury jersey) and me (in the white Girardi). For some reason, the Islander site wanted our picture, and some kid questioned it. We offered him to sit on my lap for a photo and smile, and he obliged. Quite happily, as well. (I'm pictures 19 and 20.)

I would've put the picture on this blog but I'm having trouble doing it.

Channel 11 News...

Apologies to Bryan for posting right after him, but I have something quick I need to saw.

I know that nobody really watches network news for sports scores in this age of the Internet, 4 ESPN channels, and a bunch of other local sports channels that have scrolling scores constantly on the bottom.

That said, someone in my house was watching Channel 11's nightly news, and they said, "Coming up: We know who the NL MVP is, more on the Giants steamrolling the Ravens, and the Rangers and Islanders both in action!"

We come back from break. They lead with a 90 second story on the National League MVP (that's baseball, by the way) and why it was wrong and who really should've won it. Then, they do a 90 second story on the Giants game from yesterday that was analyzed to death all of last night and probably most of today.

Then, we get a sort 10 second clip of Henrik Lundqvist making the final save in tonight's shootout win over Ottawa, and he says, "And the Islanders hosted Vancouver and won in a shootout, also."

End of newscast.

So to recap... a long story on two teams who aren't from New York who play a boring sport that ended 2 weeks ago. Then a story on a game from last night (which I'm fine with, football is now America's sport and it was a big game for a great team). Then, a clip of a save, a celebratory stick-in-the-arm-and-gloved-fist-pump, and a quick sentence on another game that also went on today.

I know hockey isn't big here. I'm not oblivious. But how is the sport supposed to grow when a St. Louis Cardinal gets 45 times more airtime than Long Island's only sports team and 9 times more play than the 2nd best team in the NHL who also happen to play in NY?

Just makes me mad. Quick! Someone contact Neil Best!

* * *

And a quick aside to what Bryan said about me liking defensive hockey: I think great defensive hockey is incredibly enjoyable. Great saves, shot blocking, aggressive backchecking, up and down, back and forth hockey with breakouts and breakaways. However, neutral-zone trap hockey is horrific.

How Good Are Predictions?...

We know the gig. Everyone from a famous magazine, to a beat writer, to a blogger, to a hack buying a sandwich at Hot & Crusty before a Rangers' game makes predictions on the season before the puck drops, based on trades, offseason signings, and personal biases. Yes, personal biases. How else do you explain me picking the Rangers to make the playoffs in 2005-06 when everyone had them as dead? How else do you explain me and Larry Brooks both proclaiming them Stanley Cup champions in 2006-07, or me sending them to the Finals again last year?

Well, ever wonder just how accurate these predictions are? Before last season, I wrote down predictions from 4 sources - me, Newsday's beat writer Steve Zipay, Eklund from that rumor website, and ESPN (don't know who wrote the article, though).

After the season, I wrote down the real finishing order of both conferences, compared, and contrasted. I gave 2 points if the team finished in the exact spot predicted, and 1 point if they finished in or out of the playoffs as predicted, but with a different finishing order. For Newsday, he just listed "playoff teams" without a specific order, so I gave him 2 points for every team that made the playoffs that he predicted. Okay, without further ado, the results...

Second Place (tie)

In last place was ESPN, who only predicted 2 out of 6 division winners correctly (San Jose and Detroit). They thought both Atlanta and the Southeast-winning Capitals would be worse than actual worst-in-the-league Tampa Bay. They did have a lot of playoff teams, especially in the West, where the only team they overlooked was Minnesota (giving the nod to the Canucks, instead). 

24 points

Second Place (tie)

The bronze medal goes to The Rivalry's own Zach, who homered like no other, picking the Rangers to win the Atlantic (2nd overall in the east behind Ottawa), then winning the Stanley Cup by beating Calgary. Wow. Both of my Finals teams were out by the 2nd round. I also only had two spots dead-on, as I correctly predicted the Red Wings-Predators first round match-up that was. I as well had Tampa Bay to win their division, but I also had Washington making the playoffs. Uh, I also had Toronto in the playoffs and conference-winning Montreal on the outside looking in. Predicting the Flyers and Bruins to miss the playoffs? My bad. Like ESPN, I had 7 of 8 playoff teams in, only choosing Vancouver over the Wild.

24 points

Second Place (tie)

Newsday's correspondent Steve Zipay decided to not list an order and just put in who he thought would skate in the playoffs. His East was not too good, picking the Leafs, Hurricanes, and Sabres over actual-playoff teams Boston, Montreal, and Washington. In the West, he redeemed himself, going the ever-popular 7 of 8. The only blemish on his record their was Vancouver's missing of the playoffs. The team he left out - Nashville.

24 points

First Place

As much as it pains me, that Guy from the Site that announced "rumors" came in first place last year. He predicted the Penguins to come in 2nd in the East, the Capitals to come in 3rd, the Red Wings to win the West (easiest and most popular pick there was, apparently). He also capitalized on being from Philadelphia by picking the Flyers to make the playoffs. His only two mistakes in the East were Buffalo and Toronto, as he left out the Bruins and the Devils. He actually predicted the Devils to finish in 14th, with only Atlanta below them. In the West, his one mistake was, yes, Vancouver. He left out Dallas, who ended up 5th and dispatched the defending champion Ducks. He had Dallas coming in 13th, behind lottery teams St. Louis and Los Angeles.

27 points

So, what did we learn here? It's pretty tough to accurately predict, which is why we can't take them too seriously. The time will come on this blog when me and Bryan will make predictions, and both will put our favorite team way too high on the list. Well, at least he will. I'll put the Rangers where they will be at season's end - 1st, and he'll put the Islanders where he hopes they'll be - 9th. 

And the moral of the story is not to pick the Vancouver Canucks to do anything except lose, a tidbit I should've remembered from the year after the lockout, when I predicted them and Ottawa to be in the Stanley Cup finals, only to have them not make the playoffs.

The Islanders' Dilemma

Yesterday, individual game tickets for the New York Islanders went on sale.

Did you get any? Did you even know they were going on sale? Do you even care?

If you're at this blog, odds are at least 50-50 that you care. You might have gotten tickets yesterday, or you might have gotten a package. Or you might have heard and chosen not to go, instead opting for the bevy of freebies that are sure to fall into your lap as the season progresses.

If you did know about the ticket sale, odds are good that you found out about it from the Islanders' official website. Because the only other way you'd know is if you frequent Newsday.com or, of course, actually read the paper. Either way, the Islanders have advertised fairly extensively through Newsday, as they should; Newsday is the only paper that sends a beat writer on the road and generally gives the Islanders the time of day. Newsday does a pretty good job with the Islanders, and they do an even better job when the alternatives are considered.

However, Newsday didn't mention a word about yesterday's event at the Coliseum. It's not because they're not talking about the Islanders. There have been a couple of articles about Scott Gordon and his transition into his new role as head coach. But nothing about ticket sales. Why? Because it's not newsworthy.

That's right. Ticket sales for your New York Islanders don't qualify as news.

Surprised? Don't be. This is a team that finished in the lottery last year and has only regressed since then. Sure, there's a bright future ahead for the Islanders, one that we might even get glimpses of this year. But this team is a tough sell to people that actually like the Islanders, let alone casual sports fans who are ambivalent about the Islanders.

Some people would say not to be alarmed by this; after all, the Islanders are rebuilding, and part of that includes rebuilding the fanbase. But this is a source of concern. And if you don't believe me, here's proof.

On Tuesday morning, I contemplated calling in sick, as I do each and every day. And as I do each and every day, I reported to work. When I got to work, I received an e-mail advertising a company discount for Islanders Opening Night tickets of up to 50% off face value.

Re-read that last sentence.

It has been said that the only guaranteed sellouts for the Islanders in any given year are the Ranger games and Opening Night. And yet, I have the Islanders offering me 50% off tickets for Opening F'ing Night.

If you were Charles Wang, Chris Dey, or whoever's in charge of ticket sales, what would you rather do - discount tickets and look desperate, or charge full price and face the chance of an Opening Night crowd of 13,000? Tough call, indeed. Either way, you lose. And either way, Islander fans look like they don't care, which isn't necessarily true. But in cases like these, there's a trade-off. You either draw the big house with minor-league promotions, like last year, or you play in front of an empty house while pretending everything's okay, like the Islanders did so often during the late 90s.

Sad to say, but this is going to get worse before it gets better. Until the Islanders have a team that doesn't have to claw and scrape just for the 8th seed - and this at least two years away - fans aren't going to turn out in droves. And that has nothing to do with the crumbling state of the Coliseum, injuries, or any of the other excuses people conveniently bring up when defending this team.

Look, I'll be there as often as I can this year. A lot of other fans out there can say the same. And the Islanders will still sell out for holiday day games and Ranger games. But the key to consistently filling up any building is bringing in casual fans who aren't obsessed with hockey like we all are. That's where the Islanders are going to struggle. They're not the Rangers, who have loyalty from fans and corporations alike. The Islanders sell to blue-collar fans from Long Island, and as much as they've tried to make their seats affordable, people just aren't going to be motivated to turn out if the on-ice product is lacking.