OK Then

When Zach pontificated this afternoon about what the Rangers should do to accomodate Mats Sundin, I don't think any of us expected to have the point become moot within ten hours. And yet, that's exactly what happened. The headlines are stating that Sundin "snubbed" New York, sort of in the same vein that every free agent "snubs" the Yankees by going to a different team. Did he snub the Rangers? Not as much as he snubbed the NHL in general; however, the NHL gets what it deserves for letting Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer pull this same stunt last year.

When I first heard Sundin was headed to Vancouver, I was shocked. It seemed like the Rangers were a much better fit for Sundin, and all indications were that he'd be willing to wait for the Rangers to clear out cap room. But it's all for naught, and it'll be interesting to see how the Rangers respond. Do they take this subtle message from Glen Sather, the message saying he thinks they're fine the way they are, as a positive sign? Or do they let this become a distraction to the point that Sather is stuck overpaying for a Sundin-type impact player who happens to have an expiring contract? Only time can tell the answer to these questions.

The big thing is, in my eyes, Sundin showed that he isn't overly concerned with winning the Stanley Cup. Should he be? I mean, he didn't grow up in Canada salivating over the chance to hoist the Cup one day. Instead, he grew up in Sweden, with the NHL a pipe dream until Europeans like Jari Kurri paved the way, showing that the European game translates well to North America and, more importantly, that the NHL is the top place in the world to play. So forgive Sundin if he isn't exactly committed to winning now. This is something we all learned when he refused to waive his no-trade clause while with the sinking ship that was Toronto last year. Obviously, Sundin would have a much better chance reaching the Cup Final with the Rangers than with Vancouver. The West is loaded with great teams; San Jose, Detroit, and Anaheim are just three of the legit Cup contenders out West. Not that the Rangers are a much better team than the Canucks (they're probably not better at all), but the Rangers would only have to go through Pittsburgh and Boston - and the jury is still out on how long the Bruins can keep up their current pace.

In the end, Vancouver is the perfect place for Sundin. He gets to continue to be a high-profile idol in Canada, something that's apparently very important to him. He gets to play in a place where winning a Stanley Cup isn't the be-all and end-all; remember, a second-round finish is progress in Vancouver, while with the Rangers it'd be considered a failure. And hey, if it doesn't work out with the Canucks, he can resume jerking teams around next fall when he pulls his Brett Favre routine yet again.

Having said all of that, the Rangers' outcome this season will always be tied back to the decision Mats Sundin made to spurn the Rangers in favor of Vancouver. If the Rangers manage to stay atop the Atlantic and make a deep playoff run, it'll be because the team bonded in the wake of Sundin's decision and realized their potential. And if they fall apart, it'll be because Sather couldn't get the job done. It's rare that a team's turning point occurs before Christmas, but it appears as though that's exactly what's happened to this Rangers team. Their response will be very, very telling.

Will He, Won't He, Will They, Won't They...

In a month - or hell, even two days from now - this all could be seen as stupid speculation, but it's worth bringing up.

Questions:

1) Is it worth trading a player valuable to the Rangers for the next 5 seasons today to acquire Mats Sundin for (at most) a year and a half?

2) Is it worth trading a few interchangeable parts to get Sundin for this year and maybe next year?

 

Answers:

1) Absolutely not.

2) Absolutely.

Let's start with the second question. Right now, Petr Prucha and Dan Fritsche are in limbo. They aren't playing, when they do it's 10 minutes or less a night, and they don't get valuable shifts. Getting rid of them (although I do have a man-love with Prucha) is a simple solution and we would hope they find success elsewhere.

Waiving Dmitri Kalinin also wouldn't hurt the team. Corey Potter could step in, and honestly, I don't think there's any way he could be worse than Kalinin has been unless Potter breaks his leg (and then he would still only be slightly worse than a healthy Kalinin).

But say Sundin wants more than that could free up. Should Scott Gomez or Chris Drury be traded? (Let's be honest here, there will be no takers for Wade Redden or Michal Rozsival - even after Rozy's incredible penalty shot goal.) Absolutely not.

The Rangers of the past would mortgage their future for a jaded shot at a Stanley Cup. It worked in 1994 when Tony Amonte, Todd Marchant, and Doug Weight were traded away. It failed every single year since. Remember when Marc Savard was traded for Jan Freakin' Hlavac?

Gomez and Drury make up the core of this team, like it or not. They might not always produce incredible numbers on this low-scoring team, but they are the leaders. Gomez is the playmaker and one of the only players who can move the puck up ice and not give it away. Chris Drury is there for the playoffs. Okay, maybe last year wasn't a great example, but still.

Plus, when you take one of them away, this team is not a real Cup contender if they even are with them on it. Why would Sundin be brought in to REPLACE one of them (unless it's to remove them from the salary cap - highly unlikely though). He is there to COMPLIMENT them, to relieve pressure on their lines so they can score more easily. 

Getting rid of bit players makes sense, especially ones who aren't playing now (or Nigel Dawes) but Sundin is not a replacement for a major player.

But hey, he might choose Vancouver, or Toronto, or Montreal, and this post could get deleted.

What is This, October?...

A full 60-minute effort; clean line changes; a low-scoring game; backchecking and forechecking.

The only thing thing that would lead me to believe that I wasn't watching a tape from early October is the fact that Chris Drury scored a goal.

The first period was a little boring, but the next two were exciting, and watching Henrik Lundqvist shut the door was fantastic. Nigel Dawes had a good game even before making the violent criminal Chris Pronger look stupid. No, the Rangers weren't perfect against Jonas Hiller and the Anaheim Ducks tonight, but it's a far cry from letting in 8 against New Jersey or leaving it all up to Henke against Carolina. 

My personal highlight of the night was seeing Nik Zherdev score on one of my favorite rules in hockey: if you are taken down from behind on a breakaway to an empty net, you automatically are awarded a goal, making it a goal where technically a shot is never taken.

Not much to say as it's 2:36 in the morning here in the Eastern Conference, and I have less than 5 minutes left on my laptop battery. I will say, however, that I love these late starting games. I go out and do stuff during the evening and then I get to still watch the game. Today I went shopping for Christmas presents and tomorrow I'll work then get home to watch the game or watch it at my Wednesday night bar. Very exciting stuff. This also would've made a good road trip: 3 games in 2 and a half California cities in 5 nights.

Anaheim was the easy game this week; the Rangers always play them well (who could forget Blair Betts' stunning end-to-end goal in Anaheim in 2006-07?). LA is tough just because they are an unpredictable team and the Rangers traditionally play poorly against poor teams. San Jose is the real test. Beat them - in San Jo, no less - and you are worthy.

Until then the real question is whether Mats Sundin will do what Markus Naslund did and forsake Vancouver for Broadway.

A Case for Mats Sundin...

In years prior, the Rangers would sign big-name contracts to big-name deals and would get nothing in return. Eric Lindros, injured and slow, would play like Brett Lindros. Pavel Bure played like Pavel Bure for 51 games before his knees wouldn't let him skate. Alex Kovalev never played up to his potential on his return-trips to Broadway, Bruce Driver didn't do much as a Ranger, Bobby Holik got paid 1st-line money even though he was a checking-line player, and when he played the checking line role, he got dumped on. 

The list goes on and on of people who gladly accepted money from the Rangers and didn't produce. Kevin Stevens, Val Kamensky, Matt Schneider, etc., etc., etc.

Mats Sundin is a different breed. If he wanted the money, he would be in Vancouver and taking 20 million of their dollars until next season is over.

Yet, he wants the prize. He wants a Stanley Cup.

Many people - me included, and hopefully him as well - think the Rangers are a few parts short of contending. They have a Top 3 goalie and some good quick forwards. Their defense is questionable-at-best, but if they employ Tom Renney's system, they can mask their flaws and Henrik Lundqvist can do the rest, much like they did at the beginning of this season and most of last.

Now, is Sundin an aging superstar? Obviously, but isn't everyone? His stats have never wavered. The last time he didn't have 72 points or more in a season? 1994-95 when the strike shortened the season, and he had 47 points in 47 games.

Since the lockout, he has averaged over a point per game, which would make him easily the most proficient Ranger on a roster where someone gets hot for 5 games then cold for three weeks. See: Chris Drury, and his 5G, 1A week in November, and his 4 points since then. 

He is a leader in the Brendan Shanahan-mold, except he isn't so injured that he becomes useless like Shanahan was from January to May of 2008. He is big, he takes up room around the net, and two players flock to him, leaving another player open.

He is the equivalent of Jaromir Jagr in 2005-06, before hip and shoulder injuries bested him.

I'm not going to pontificate on who the Rangers should trade or waive to make more cap room (although if I were Dmitri Kalinin, I would certainly keep a suitcase on hand). But the point remains, Sundin for one year makes a whole lot of sense for the Rangers.

All-Star Game Flaws...

For the NHL All-Star Game, the fans vote for the starters. I really have no problem with this, except for the fact that the entire Eastern Conference starting line-up will be made up of Canadiens. Mike Komisarek? Really? I mean, I know there isn't much in Montreal except fantastic strip clubs, legal gamblin, and bilingual hockey games, but if you are already voting for Saku Koivu, Alex Tanguay, Alex Kovalev, Andrei Markov, and Carey Price (aka the guy with the severely unimpressive 2.68 GAA), do you really need to vote for Komisarek, who is having a very bad year? For Christ's sake, Komisarek has over 150,000 votes, nearly 5 times more than 3rd place Mike Green's 36,000.

Anyway, my beef is, as always, with the pre-made ballot.

I remember a few seasons ago (I believe 2002-03), Curtis Joseph was on the ballot. At that point, he was injured, and played in just 1 game with the Red Wings. He had lost that game. Yet, he was still on the ballot.

This year, there are a bunch of curious choices which obviously prove that this ballot was made in the off-season and nobody took the time to update it.

For starters (no pun intended), J.P. Dumont (17 points) isn't on the ballot. While Ryan Getzlaf is on it, his linemates Corey Perry (slow start but absolutely on fire) and Teemu Selanne are not. Pascal "Just Got Off of Injured Reserve" Leclaire is also on the ballot. The forwards don't bother me as much though, because there are a ton on the ballot and 3 write-in spots.

In the East, there are atrocities galore. Ryan Whitney AND Sergei Gonchar are both on the list. Combined games: 0. Combined injuries: 2, both in preseason. Why even waste the room on the ballot on them? Second overall Wade Redden is the sexy Ranger offseason acquisition. He hasn't scored a goal since the home opener on October 10 against Chicago. Meanwhile, undrafted Dan Girardi has 2 goals and a very impressive 14 assists. Did Glen Sather lobby to get Redden on the ballot so he could try to convince the rest of the league he didn't give Ferrari money to a Volkswagen?

Danny Briere and his grand total of 8 games make the list, while fellow Flyer Jeff Carter will be watching the Skills Competition from his (probably very well-adorned) living room.

As for the Islanders, I really like that they put Trent Hunter on the ballot. But is Rick DiPietro (0-2-0, 3.91 GAA) really having that good of a year? To be honest, putting Joey MacDonald on it would've been a decent choice.

To cover their collective rears, their is a footnote on the bottom of the page saying "Player must have appeared in 20 games prior to 1/2/09 to qualify," thus negating Whitney, Gonchar, Martin Brodeur, Marion Gaborik, DiPietro, Brian Rolston, and probably Marty Biron from actually being voted in.

Marty Biron? All-around nice guy. Of all the players I have met in my time, him and Scott Gomez (also on the ballot... Aaron Voros and Brandon Dubinsky and Nik Zherdev are not) are the most personable. At 4-5-2 with a 3.33 GAA and an .888 SP, what qualifies him over equally not-good Antero Niittymaki? (By the way, I had no clue I wrote so much about the Flyers until I re-read this post.)

My stunning conclusion is that the other day, I was listening to XM Home Ice 204, and Tim Gleason (Carolina Hurricane's defenseman) was talking to Phil Esposito and they were railing on the All-Star Game. I've heard it all before and normally brushed it off. You know the arguments: It's on Versus. It's on like a Wednesday or a Tuesday.

But now, I see their point. The NHL doesn't seem to care about it, either. I get that you want to showcase stars, so obviously Brodeur is on it, and Alex Ovechkin with his slow start. Personally, I'm surprised to see Alexander Semin on it as well. But there is absolutely no reason to have Redden or Whitney or Gonchar on it when more capable players like Girardi and Mark Streit are left off. They are not going to get nearly enough votes as simply write-ins.

Maybe if they put a real list out, they would have no one like Boy Wonder Luke Schenn, Luca Sbisa, or Braydon Coburn for the Young Stars game.

Hopefully, within a few years, either the NHL starts to take this seriously and does the ballot the week before it goes up, or they make the whole thing a write-in ballot.

Oh well, atleast Mats Sundin isn't on the All-Star ballot this season.

Mats Sundin

With the regular season just a month away, one big name remains unsigned. That, of course, would be Mats Sundin, who just can't seem to decide what he wants to do. Many are comparing him with Brett Favre, who could stake a serious claim to being the biggest drama queen in the history of professional sports. However, there's a more apt comparison for Sundin's current state; it's just not a popular one.

Roger Clemens.

People forget that Clemens was the first player to do the whole "I'm going to wait till the season starts, then name my team and my price" thing that's so popular these days. Michael Strahan got to skip training camp last year for doing this. Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermayer got heroes' welcomes when they returned to Anaheim last winter. Hell, Clemens himself did it three years in a row, culminating in last year's $28 million debacle. But hey, he got his money, right?

And that's what Sundin is banking on. He knows that if he waits long enough, someone's going to get hurt and that team is going to need a big-time replacement. Sundin, then, would essentially have the team by the balls. He could command that widely-reported $10 million figure and end up on a Cup contender, and all he'd have to do is be patient.

It looks like he's already got that part down; he's already stated he's not going to decide anything before the start of the season. And why should he? He's so much better served taking his time and seeing how things develop. There are plenty of teams with plenty of cap room - and plenty of holes to fill. Those holes will only get bigger as the season progresses. Why commit now when you can commit later, get paid (and treated) like a king, and still have a shot at winning a Cup?

In other words, we can stop with the "Sundin to the Islanders" rumors; they were comical at best to begin with. But could Sundin end up with the Rangers if they feel they still miss Jaromir Jagr? Absolutely. And if it happens, I just hope he shows up in James Dolan's press box at MSG to announce his comeback. "Well, they came and got me out of Stockholm..."

Now that would be an unforgettable moment.

But Isn't Nikolai Zherdev Going to Wear Number 13...

Reports, false or otherwise, have the Rangers still interested in Mats Sundin, even with all the forwards and high priced players already on their roster. 

While I do doubt that he will play on Broadway, there is a chance, and we do know that he spoke to the Rangers' organization even before Toronto gave Montreal permission to talk to him. So, there is an outside chance.

Of course, the Rangers would have to move salary to get him there. And he would have to agree to a discount. Vancouver's $10M per year for 2 years deal is still on the table. Would he give that up to play for a chance at the Cup in Manhattan, even if it means taking less money than 2002 All-Star Wade Redden's $6.5M? Would Sundin also accept a one-year deal?

Part of me thinks the Rangers should give this up and continue with the rebuilding that has renewed the organization since the lockout. They have homegrown talent named Dawes, Callahan, Dubinsky, Korpikoski, Anisimov, Byers, Moore and Prucha who can put the puck in the net (yes, I realize they all will not be on the team come October). Those people have rejuvenated the franchise, and another big-name veteran would again delay their development.

Also, with 5 centers on the roster (Gomez, Drury, Dubinsky, Fritsche, Betts), another 3rd first-line center would be overkill.

However, there is no denying his skill, even at 37. He was drafted in 1989, a year before Jaromir Jagr, two years after Brendan Shanahan, and one pick before the Islanders drafted Dave Chyzowski (nice cheap shot).

His stats have never wavered. Most superstars tail off towards the end of their careers. Mark Messier had a great season in 1996-97, then never again reach point-per-game status, scoring 60, 48, 54, 67, 23, 40, and 43 points until he retired. Mike Modano, drafted the year before Sundin went 1st overall, had good seasons in 2002-03 and 05-06, but has been a damper on the team in other years. In Eric Lindros' last 2 seasons, he played a total of 82 games and scored 48 points, a far cry from his pre-concussion 70 points in 41 games in 94-95 and his 115 points in 73 games in 95-96.

Sundin has had a couple of off-years, but ever since his rookie year (58 points, 82 games) he has gotten atleast 72 points (47 in 47 in the strike-shortened 1994-95 year). He has averaged over a point per game every year since the lockout, an accomplished feat on a team that has been just under mediocre and missed the playoffs in each of those 3 seasons.

I guess I wrote this post to maybe convince myself that if I log onto the computer tomorrow and read "Rangers Trade Prucha, Sign Sundin", or I get a text while I'm Vegas saying "sundin a ranger, sweet", I won't be upset.

After all, he is a leader who stands up and takes responsibility. He's a Brendan Shanahan type player who will always face the media and take the heat when needed, except he can still play unlike the older and more-injured Shanahan.

I still think they should take the team they have now, but if they do sign him for one-year, it automatically makes them favorites in the non-improved East. 

Think about it: Pittsburgh replaced Marian Hossa with two former Islander journeymen. Montreal's biggest signing was Georges Laraque. Philadelphia didn't do much. Boston signed an unproven kid (Blake Wheeler) and bought out a veteran who will end up in Hollywood (Glen Murray). Atlanta is horrible. Washington didn't do much either besides locking up their own players and getting worse in goal. The Devils signed two back-up goalies and one past-his-prime center (Bobby Holik) and one solid winger (Brian Rolston). But besides Tampa Bay, who has really improved? Nobody. Whoever lands Sundin automatically becomes a favorite... unless it's Toronto, who might never be good again.

Not Yet Done...

Quick! Name the Rangers forwards under contract!

If you said Scott Gomez, Markus Naslund, Nikolai Zherdev, Blair Betts, Ryan Callahan, Nigel Dawes, Chris Drury, Aaron Voros, Patrick Rissmiller, Dan Fritsche, Brandon Dubinsky, Colton Orr, and Petr Prucha, you win a cookie.*

You also might have said Lauri Korpikoski, Dane Byers, P.A. Parenteau, Artem Anisimov, and/or Greg Moore.

Restricted free agent Freddy Sjostrom might also have made your list.

That's 19 forwards for a 12-man roster. With healthy scratches and injuries, figure 14 forwards on the roster and one (Moore) making the trip from Hartford to MSG for 5 games this year.

Oh, what's that? Brendan Shanahan still might sign?

I don't think Anisimov will make the team, nor do I think Byers will see more than 3 or so games in the NHL this year. Parenteau has the talent - as Anisimov does - but might not be ready. Then again, he might be a better choice in the line-up then Fritsche or Rissmiller. However, you have to think Korpikoski, a 2004 1st round pick, will make the team from training camp.

That's not the point of this blog.

The point of this blog post is that I doubt the Rangers are done. We assume Sjostrom is going to sign, making him the 14th NHL-ready forward on the roster. Then there are youngsters ready to make the jump and play their menial minutes on the 4th line. And then Shanahan might be the dark horse here. He wants to play, he believes he still has it in him, and he believes GM Glen Sather wants him back.

There's no way they go into training camp with this many forwards. Expect a 7th defenseman or a few draft picks to be picked up after the Mats Sundin domino falls.** The 2009 NHL Entry Draft is going to be very deep, and a few extra picks couldn't hurt the Rangers.

* No actual treats will be awarded by the blog owners, although they will recommend the fantastic chocolate creme stuffed Oreos.

** In no may am I hinting that Mats Sundin will become a Ranger. I'm just saying that his self-imposed August 1st deadline for making a decision on what his future holds will be another domino to fall. Remember on July 1 when Brian Campbell signed, then defensemen starting signing left and right, including but not limited to Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival.

On Campbell, Hossa, Sundin, and Other, Former Mistakes...

The Rangers would be in a terrible position if they decided to throw $8M a year at Marian Hossa or Brian Campbell (or Mats Sundin, for that matter). Yes, they are all good players, but that's a lot of money. Remember when Eric Lindros made $8M, and Bobby Holik made $9M? The Rangers were a bunch of expensive, overpaid, underachieving, non-performing jokes.

The Salary Cap Era was supposed to change that. Payroll got cut from over 80 million dollars a year in 2003-04 to less than half of that in 2005-06. Ticket prices went down 10%, roughly $4-$16 a ticket depending on how rich you are, but not because of the work stoppage, but because they didn't make the playoffs for the 7th straight season.

I don't need to run this down for you. You know how bad things were in NY. Hockey was off the radar because both teams were ridiculous.

So, the Cap Era is ushered in, the Rangers restock their farm system, build a Czech-centric team around Jaromir Jagr, and have a dream season, followed by 2 more seasons of making the playoffs.

Now, if all the rumor-mongers are to be believed - and by no means am I saying this is true, but you can see it all playing out, can't you? - GM Glen Sather will be making pitches to any of these 3 players.

Hossa has averaged a point per game in his career 4 times (including once when he had 80 points in 80 games). Last season, he had 66 points in 72 games. Jason Arnott and Ales Hemsky were on the same pace. Yet, if someone offered Arnott $8M a year, he would be put in an asylum. Hossa is 29, no doubt looking for atleast 6 years. He will be an expensive cap hit when he's putting up 25 points a year at age 35.

You should also ask Carlos Beltran, Stephon Marbury, Dwayne Wade, and Lindros about how that old adage goes. Something about phoning it in when a player already has his big guaranteed paycheck.

Campbell is a good defenseman with a nice scoring touch. Lucky for him that Dan Boyle re-signed with Tampa Bay in February, so he is the only one of his kind on the free agent market, making him a very rich man automatically. Yes, Buffalo could have had him at $5M/year last summer, but they rejected his offer, and now someone is going to offer him (along with his 8 goals last season) a huge contract in both length and cash.

New York used to overpay for defensemen with marginal-at-best talent, or have we forgotten Stephane Quintal, Bruce Driver, Mathieu Schenider, Ulf Samuelsson, Vladimir Malakhov, and Boris Mironov. It was because of these players like people like Sergei Zubov, Mattias Norstrom, and Marek Zidlicky, all once drafted by the Rangers, were shipped off.

Sign Campbell, have him stick around, and Sather will wind up trading Mike Del Zotto, Mike Sauer, or Bobby Sanguenetti for a 2nd round pick in 2 years.

And yes, Sundin is a good player as well (and in the 90s he was amazing), but when the team is trying to get younger, does it pay to sign an expensive center when we already have 4 solid centers? (Yes, I consider Blair Betts "solid", considering his role as a 4th line center and an exceptional penalty killer at a very reasonable price.)

Need I remind you how bad hockey was in these parts when Oleg Kvasha and Alexandre Daigle were marquee names?

* * *

With Ryan Malone off the market, the Rangers best moves are to send offer sheets to Corey Perry, a young RW, and Jay Bouwmeester, whose name is fun to spell. Brooks Orpik, whose stock rose with one shift in Game 3 of the Finals, wouldn't be bad, although I am still bitter of him breaking Erik Cole's neck. Mark Streit and Ron Hainsey would be good choices if the price is right. Wade Redden was bad at 31. How awful is he going to be at 35?