Ranking The Division Leaders As Cup Contenders

With most teams nearing 40 games played, we're essentially halfway through the NHL season, and no clear-cut favorite has emerged. But we do have a few convincing-looking division leaders who figure to be in the mix. Here's a midseason ranking of the current division leaders as Stanley Cup contenders.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay has had an impressive season thus far and remains slightly ahead of Montreal and Detroit for the lead in the Atlantic Division. A look at NHL team stats shows that the Lightning are second only to Toronto in goals per game, and that offensive firepower has been good enough for 23 wins through Dec. 30. Yet, it's hard to consider Tampa Bay as a favorite against the other three teams on this list.

The oddsmakers agree, at this stage, with Betfair's page on Stanley Cup favorites showing Tampa with just 15/1 odds, as noted here. These are just the eighth-best odds overall, and they even place Tampa below division foe Montreal. This is all due to a somewhat-unreliable defense. Ben Bishop has had a very good but unspectacular season in net, and Tampa is a middle-of-the-road team in goals allowed. They'll be a playoff threat, but a Stanley Cup run looks unlikely.

3. Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks have the most points through Dec. 30 with 54, though they have also played more games than fellow division leaders Pittsburgh and Chicago. That performance to date has earned them 10/1 Stanley Cup odds at this point (tied for second best), but as to just how they're going to beat teams in the playoffs, it's really anyone's guess.

Simply put, the Ducks don't do anything to overwhelm you. There's no one area on the ice or on the stat sheet in which they dominate opponents and assert themselves as one of the best teams in the league. But here's an interesting thing to consider, pointed out at the Ducks' Fansided page: Anaheim leads the NHL in man games lost this season. This does raise the question of just how strong and consistent they may be if they get healthier.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins will be in the Stanley Cup conversation once more, and as of now their 10/1 odds are even with Anaheim's for second best. They'll have to fend off a tough Islanders team if they want to keep their spot atop the Metropolitan Division, but ultimately Pittsburgh looks to be arguably the most complete team in the NHL. They're also a clear co-favorite to win a title.

Taking a look at the Penguins' team stats page at ESPN, it's incredibly impressive just how good this team is in all areas of the game. They rank fourth in both goals scored and goals allowed, sixth in power play percentage and third in kills. They're also one of only five teams with single-digit losses, despite a recent slide, and that sort of consistency matters come playoff time.

1. Chicago Blackhawks

What's better than Pittsburgh's claim of ranking fourth in both goals scored and goals allowed? How about Chicago's marks of third in goals per game and first in goals allowed. This Blackhawks team has developed an elite defensive standing without sacrificing offensive prowess, and they're the favorite to win the Stanley Cup as a result.

Specifically, the Blackhawks lead the way with 13/2 odds, which are quite strong given how many good teams there are in the league. But as of now, it's difficult to imagine anyone beating the Blackhawks in a playoff series.

It's Prediction Thursday!...

For the third time today, we will have a prediction themed post on this website. I guess that's what happens when both of your teams have officially emptied their respective lockers and have held exit interviews.

Based on my poor showing in my 2008-09 predictions, you should not put much stock into what I say. Also take into effect that last year, I predicted Montreal, the Rangers, Colorado, and San Jose to win the 2nd round and go into the Conference Finals. The correct winners were Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Dallas. Much like David Wright, I was 0-for-4.

Keep in mind that Game 1 of Vancouver/Chicago is in the books

Boston over Carolina in 5
Pittsburgh over Washington in 6
Detroit over Anaheim in 6
Vancouver over Chicago in 6

I hope I'm not selling Anaheim short again. I heard Gary Bettman's erection has not gone down since the Hurricanes beat the Devils to force a Penguins/Capitals series. I also hope that the officials go easy in said series. You know they're going to referee it so that it goes to 7 games, or atleast try to. And Pittsburgh will win, of course, because Gary Bettman said so.

A Fact, An Opinion, and a Mistake...

MISTAKE
I think a lot of people erred when they (me included) predicted the Sharks would sweep the Ducks. I think we overlooked the fact that even though these Ducks aren't the same as they were 2 years ago, they still have Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer on the blueline, and Francois Beauchemin is back from injury. Those are 3 big assets to have on a team, and they can have anyone of them on the ice at any given time. Add in Ryan Whitney, and that's a scary defense that not a lot of people took into account.

They sure shut down Joe Thornton today. His only shot came with like a minute left in the game.

For those who didn't catch the end of the game, it was scoreless going into the 3rd period, but the Ducks scored 2 to win it. The Sharks did hit 2 posts in that period though.

OPINION
Ian LaPierre, the "Sean Avery" of the Montreal Canadiens (albeit with less skill and without Avery's stunningly good looks), should be suspended. Tonight, the Bruins scored an empty-net goal to ice the game 4-2, and LaPierre just went and hit him while he was celebrating.

His back wasn't turned like when Dale Hunter attacked Pierre Turgeon in 1993, but there is no place for crap like that in this game. I know they allow fighting in the game, but that is in the heat of the moment (or should only be) and should deter punks like LaPierre from doing that cheap stuff.

He didn't injure Phil Kessel, but he could have, and it was after the play, after a goal, and with nothing to be gained. A one-game suspension should do the trick, like they gave Dan Carcillo in Philadelphia for a useless cheapshot last night.

FACT
The Rangers have been in 5 playoff serieses since the lockout (not including the current one against the Capitals). In those 5 matchups, the team who won Game 1 wo the series.

They lost to the Devils 6-1 in 2005-06. The next season, they beat Atlanta 4-3 and lost to Buffalo 5-2. (I still maintain that if they won Game 5, there was no way Buffalo would have won Game 6 at the Garden that year.) Last year, they beat the Devils 4-1 in Game 1 and then lost to the Penguins 5-4 in the opening of that series.

Not a stone-cold fact, but it's worth noting. Makes you feel a lot better hearing that stat now that they do have that lead though, doesn't it?

Regulation Wins...

On the Monday before Thanksgiving, the Rangers beat the Coyotes 4-1. Since then, they have had one regulation win, and that was against Anaheim on December 16.

Since Thanksgiving, there have been 3 shootout wins, 3 overtime wins, 6 losses, and 1 overtime loss (Capitals game last week where they blew the 4-0 lead to Alexandre Ovechkin).

And their power play has fallen to 25-11. That's 25 goals while on the PP, and 11 shorthanded goals against.

Yes, they are in first place. That 5-0 start was fantastic and it's the reason they are still kind of in first place (they are first in points but have played 2 more games than Philadelphia and 4 more than New Jersey, both of whom are nipping at their heels). Besides that fast start, the two reasons that they are in a decent position are Henrik Lundqvist and the fact that Gary Bettman hates games that end in a tie. Don't worry, Mr. Bettman, I do too. I enjoy the shootouts and what they've done to my team.

Let's hope a game against the Islanders breaks them out of their stupor, although the Islanders always, always play the Rangers tight, even with nothing on the line. 

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What is This, October?...

A full 60-minute effort; clean line changes; a low-scoring game; backchecking and forechecking.

The only thing thing that would lead me to believe that I wasn't watching a tape from early October is the fact that Chris Drury scored a goal.

The first period was a little boring, but the next two were exciting, and watching Henrik Lundqvist shut the door was fantastic. Nigel Dawes had a good game even before making the violent criminal Chris Pronger look stupid. No, the Rangers weren't perfect against Jonas Hiller and the Anaheim Ducks tonight, but it's a far cry from letting in 8 against New Jersey or leaving it all up to Henke against Carolina. 

My personal highlight of the night was seeing Nik Zherdev score on one of my favorite rules in hockey: if you are taken down from behind on a breakaway to an empty net, you automatically are awarded a goal, making it a goal where technically a shot is never taken.

Not much to say as it's 2:36 in the morning here in the Eastern Conference, and I have less than 5 minutes left on my laptop battery. I will say, however, that I love these late starting games. I go out and do stuff during the evening and then I get to still watch the game. Today I went shopping for Christmas presents and tomorrow I'll work then get home to watch the game or watch it at my Wednesday night bar. Very exciting stuff. This also would've made a good road trip: 3 games in 2 and a half California cities in 5 nights.

Anaheim was the easy game this week; the Rangers always play them well (who could forget Blair Betts' stunning end-to-end goal in Anaheim in 2006-07?). LA is tough just because they are an unpredictable team and the Rangers traditionally play poorly against poor teams. San Jose is the real test. Beat them - in San Jo, no less - and you are worthy.

Until then the real question is whether Mats Sundin will do what Markus Naslund did and forsake Vancouver for Broadway.

Brian Burke: Nice Guy?...

A few days ago, my counterpart, Islanders blogger Bryan, wrote about how he respects Brian Burke.

Well, yesterday, Burke went on NHL Live (XM 204/Sirius 208/NHL Network) and made some incredible comments about Sean Avery referring to the girl who slept with Luke Wilson in Old School as "sloppy seconds." Incredible in the sense that I'm amazed he actually believes what he said.

First off, he found Avery's comments "personally offensive." I was not aware that he was such good friends with Elisha Cuthbert to take personal offense at Avery saying that she has dated other hockey players besides #16.

He then, for some reason, threw Fedor Fedorov and Terrell Owens under the bus. Interesting.

He also doesn't "think it should be acceptable" that Avery should make comments like he did.

For the record, Avery's comments to a bunch of Canadian reporters have generated more press for the game in America than Burke going from Anaheim to Toronto. Most common Americans don't even know who Brian Burke is.

I'm not defending Avery in what he said, just his right to say it. He was being smug, he was being stupid, he did it for attention, and he did it to stir up the other team. He probably didn't think it through and shouldn't have even said it in front of the press. He should've just said something to Dion Phaneuf after a whistle and tried to draw a retaliation penalty.

However, it baffles me why this would personally offend Burke. After all, this is the same man who, as GM of the Vancouver Canucks, dismissed the severity of Steve Moore's broken neck when his goon Todd Bertuzzi (whom he later signed in Anaheim) jumped him from behind and punched his paralyzed and bloody body on the ice. He said Bertuzzi's punishment was too severe.

Bertuzzi wound up getting 13 games for ending Moore's career. Avery has already been suspended 2 games and will likely receive more (I'm guessing 5 total) for saying a non-NHL entity has had more than one boyfriend.

Right now, Avery's comments are apparently on par with Mike Mottau headhunting Frans Nielsen and injuring him for 3-4 months, as they both have received suspensions of two games.

This makes me so angry that I cannot properly express it. It's reasons like this that the NHL is considered a joke, and if Gary Bettman was serious about the league gaining popularity, he would suspend those who injury on purpose and not those who put the league's name on ESPN's SportsCenter.

It's crap like this that makes me want to give up on the NHL.

A Couple Of Thoughts

 - It's sort of old news at this point, but I caught Brian Burke's introductory press conference with the Toronto media on NHL On The Fly on Sunday. At first, I was a bit put off by the whole Burke situation. I mean, the whole world knew he was going to Toronto once his contract was up, and yet he ended up in Toronto before December 1. I guess Anaheim didn't want to delay the inevitable, but it was a little strange how it all worked out. Besides, it's always a bit annoying to see Toronto get what they want.

In any event, Burke spoke to the media and completely blew me away. Just about everything he said was impressive, but there were two things that stood out. First, he made a point to say his players would be more involved in the community than ever before. Now, we're pretty lucky in that both the Islanders and Rangers are very active in charity and volunteer work, so we don't know how it works in cities where players barely do anything besides show up for games. It's nice to see a general manager recognize the importance of his players being active in the community. The second thing struck an even bigger chord. He mentioned how the NHL has a holiday trade freeze so that no players can be moved during Christmas. He then went on to say that he doesn't believe in trading players at all during the holiday season in general and that he wouldn't be making any transactions between December 7 and the start of 2009. This isn't because he needs to see what he has with the Maple Leafs, but because he doesn't think it's fair for a player to be uprooted and moved during the holiday season.

After hearing that second point, I remembered that Brian Burke is the same GM that released Ilya Bryzgalov last season rather than have Bryzgalov sit behind J.S. Giguere. Burke knew he could probably get a decent package of players or picks, but he also knew Bryzgalov wasn't going to be staying in Anaheim and he wanted to make sure Bryzgalov would end up in a decent situation. You could make the argument Burke is getting back the same generosity thanks to the precedent he set with the Ducks. And by all accounts, Burke made the move back East for the right reason, to be with his family. Hard to argue with that one.

Long story short, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are still a loathsome franchise, they became a little less so with the hire of Brian Burke. Now let's see how Burke gets rid of the Leafs' awful contracts and barren farm system.

 - Sean Avery made headlines today by making a comment about his, as he said, "sloppy seconds". The remark was made in reference to Dion Phaneuf, whose Calgary Flames are facing Avery's Dallas Stars as we speak. Phaneuf, of course, is dating Avery's ex-flame Elisha Cuthbert. Avery's punishment was not getting drilled by Phaneuf; instead, he's been suspended indefinitely.

This raises a couple of issues in my mind. First, Mike Mottau cheapshots Frans Nielsen and knocks him out for 2-3 months, yet only gets two games. Now, Avery is suspended indefinitely for making a crack to the media? OK, it's a really funny crack, but still. Second, it looks like Dallas is already regretting the Avery deal. Reports are that he's not very popular in the clubhouse; he also has a "limited no-trade clause". But the third is the thing that really gets me. We've barely heard a peep about hockey from the major sports media so far this year. Just about the only thing anybody talks about is the possibility of Barack Obama attending the Winter Classic. Of course, Avery opens his mouth, gets suspended, and it's the top story everywhere. You think it's possible for the NHL to get some positive attention ever? Of course not. That'd be too easy. But when something bad happens, it's the perfect opportunity for the major sports media to bash hockey and say things like, "This is why we don't pay more attention to the NHL." Meanwhile, Plaxico Burress shoots himself in the leg and nobody can stop talking about it. Go figure.

So there you have it. Maybe if the media didn't take the obvious story about Avery and dug a little deeper, they'd see some real good out there. Like the new Toronto GM a few paragraphs up. You think you're ever going to hear a story on ESPN about any GM in any other sport who won't make trades during the holidays out of fairness to his players? No way. Our game is a great one. It's a shame most people refuse to see it that way.

Ooh

The Islanders are playing right now. But this can't wait.

Our first road game of the season is being broadcast in, as Jim Nantz would say, "stunning high definition". Not exactly what I expected, to be honest. But I guess that's the way things are going these days. Both the Mets and Yankees do road games in HD, but they also get huge TV ratings. The Islanders? Not so much. But I think we'll all take it.

I hereby take back everything bad I've ever said about MSG Plus including, but not limited to, its lack of pre-season coverage, the lack of pre-game show before the Islanders' home opener, the fact that the network shows a total of five different commercials, the fact that they never talk about the Islanders on Hockey Night Live!, and about fifty other things. I'd also like to thank Panasonic ("Ideas For Life"), not only for their Viera line of TVs that sponsor every HD broadcast, but for their copious Digital Replays (drink!). I wish I could have put a couple of Panasonic Digital Replays into my wedding video.

Anyway, it's a good thing we get tonight's game in HD. Because Barry Melrose is wearing the nicest suit a coach has ever worn. That thing needs to be appreciated. I always hoped a coach would go all black like Wolf "The Dentist" Stansson in The Mighty Ducks 2. Melrose could be the guy to do it.

2008-09 Rangers Schedule...

Every year, when the schedule comes out, I write down all the home games, catergorized by month. I write down who they're playing, the date, and the day of the week. (Okay, I did this last year and I did this today for next season, as well.)

I then award each game 0, 1, 2, or 3 points. When I get my choice of packages, I count up the points, then whichever package has the most points, I get.

Oh, and by the way, I lied to everyone. I will be getting a package this year, if only so I don't lose my place in line in future seasons. See, when I first signed up for a ticket package right after the lockout, I got my choice of anything I wanted, any package (I picked the 7-game plan, now non-existant), any seat (mostly any seat, I picked blue line seats where the Rangers shot twice). The next year, the seats got worse, and last season, they improved, but barely. It's also nearly impossible to upgrade from my current 11-game plan to a half-season or full-season plan. So for those wanting tickets now, there is a wait.

Seven years of futility and a lost season means there's no waiting for tickets. Three straight playoff appearances and a team that isn't in it just for the money means you wait. Take the good with the bad, eh?

Anyway, I only originally gave 4 games 3 points. The home opener versus Chicago; Sean Avery returning with Dallas in October; and the last two home games of the season, against Philadelphia and Montreal.

I then figured out a few dates where Adam Graves' number 9 might be retired, and bumped any 1s to 2s, and 2s to 3s.

A few games got the dreaded "zero points." Those include Devil, Penguin, and Flyer games on Saturdays, when I wouldn't miss going to work and making $250 for a game I could catch any other time.

I remember one game in November of 2006, I had 2 tickets to a Devils game at MSG, and I sold them to a friend. The Rangers were losing 2-0, scored 3 goals in 90 seconds, and won. On my drive home from work, people on Steve Somers' show on WFAN were calling it the greatest regular season game in history. A text message from my friend concurred this non-exaggerated statement.

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As far as road games go, I will be traveling to see the Blueshirts play this year. Probably a Saturday game in Boston, definitely one or two games in Philly (hopefully including the last game of the season). I'll probably go to atleast two games at the Coliseum and one game in Newark. Nice stadium. Frightening area.

Both games in Montreal are weeknights, which is kind of weak. Last year, me and some friends got there on Saturday, saw the Rangers' 5-3 win on Super Bowl Sunday, and came home on Monday.

I won't be going to their California swing, where they play the Ducks and Kings on back to back nights, but it's nice to dream.

Last year, I went to a Wednesday game in Newark, and a Thursday game in Philly. That was a lot of fun, but the schedule doesn't allow that this year.

However, the highlight of my schedule will be going to Nashville for the March 12 game.

Inside the Sommet Center, home of the Predators.

Formerly known as the Gaylord Entertainment Center.

I could probably get front row seats day of the game.

On NHL Salaries

Note: This post has nothing to do with the Islanders or Rangers individually, but is certainly relevant to the plight the NHL finds itself in; therefore, it is quite relevant.

In the latest edition of their ridiculous feud, Anaheim GM Brian Burke called out Oilers GM Kevin Lowe and claimed that Lowe was responsible for the inflated salaries we're seeing this year. Apparently, because Lowe signed Buffalo's Thomas Vanek and Anaheim's Dustin Penner to offer sheets last year (Buffalo matched; Anaheim didn't), that's why $300 million in contracts were doled out on July 1 alone. Now, I don't mind Brian Burke, if only because his name is markedly similar to mine, but he's wrong on this one.

Burke's argument is as follows. Generally, a player gets an entry-level contract when he comes into the league. When he starts out-earning that one, he's supposed to be given a mid-level contract, which is eventually topped by the big-money deal he gets when he hits free agency. According to Burke, Lowe's moves have eliminated that middle deal entirely, meaning that a guy goes from his entry-level deal to the big bucks right away.

There are two problems with this statement.

First off, every other sports league has done away with the mid-level deal as well. Look at the NBA. Just a few years ago, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Dwayne Wade each went straight from their rookie deals, which paid them roughly $1.5 million a year each, into deals that paid them $20 million a year until they become eligible for free agency. The NFL is no stranger to this phenomenom, either; with non-guaranteed deals, players are always holding out for more money and receiving extensions for years and dollars they'll never see. In Major League Baseball, the trend has turned toward young stars signing with their teams at sliding rates that take them through their arbitration years and, potentially, their first years of free agency. This is as close to what Burke considered a mid-level deal as we will ever see in sports again.

The second issue I have with Burke's blaming of Lowe is that the CBA has pretty much gotten rid of the need for mid-level contracts. Players don't hit free agency until they're 31 years old, by which time they've proven their worth. Very rarely is the case where a team doesn't know what it's getting. As for younger players who would normally be receiving these mid-level deals, that's a different issue entirely. If the player wants to continually prove his worth, thereby driving up his salary, and the team doesn't want to commit to a long-term deal worth big bucks, they can go to arbitration each year. While a player can only request arbitration after his fourth year, it occasionally takes that long for a player to develop; any player who is dominant right away is locked up as soon as possible.

So, to recap...
- Every other sport has done away with mid-level deals.
- Restricted free agents with four years service time can go to arbitration each year if they choose.
- Teams who have excellent restricted free agents are wise to sign them to long-term deals at market value.

Let's look at how Burke himself handled the case of Corey Perry. Perry is a former first-round draft pick, turned 23 in May, and scored 29 goals and had 108 penalty minutes in just his second full NHL season. Surely, someone was going to give him an offer sheet if the Ducks didn't do something. So what happened? Burke signed him to a five-year deal worth $5.25 million per season. That's less than what many of the big-name free agents received; it's half of what Vancouver reportedly offered Mats Sundin. In other words, Burke should thank his lucky stars that he gets to keep Perry for what may be five years of elite production. Sure, he'd rather pay less for that production, but that's the way the NHL is these days.

And the reason for that, of course, is the ridiculous deals given to unrestricted free agents.

We haven't discussed unrestricted free agents yet, and that's because they're the catalyst behind this whole entire thing. The trickle-down effect is unmistakable. Every time a Cliff Fletcher pays $3.5 million a year for Jeff Finger, every other defenseman of his ilk is going to want the same money. That's what drives salaries up, and as much as the GMs complain, they are the ones to blame.

A common cry in the lead-up to July 1st has been, "What was the lockout for?". Personally, I'm at a loss for words on this one. Coming off the lockout in 2005, the salary cap for each team was $39 million. The upcoming season's salary floor will be $40 million. Now, the NHL was smart to link the salary cap to league revenues, but it's not working. Too many teams are forced to put money into bad players just to hit the floor. Also, too many teams find themselves with too much cap room and make the wrong choices. This doesn't even begin to mention the nature of competitive bidding, which is presumably how Wade Redden is making $6.5 million a year to play for the Rangers.

And this is where it gets ugly. Let's use Redden as an example of how a big deal can ultimately ruin a player's career. It's fairly certain that Wade Redden did not request $6.5 million a year from the New York Rangers. However, given the cap room they had and the needs they had, they felt it was necessary to overpay in order to get their player. So, now, Redden has this huge deal, and with that huge deal comes pressure. The fans and media are going to be all over this guy if he doesn't perform at a superhuman level for the next six years. Same with Jeff Finger in Toronto. Nobody's going to turn down the money these guys were offered, but at the same time, their lives are going to get a whole lot complicated as a result of receiving it.

Getting back to mid-level contracts, they're not given because they simply don't exist anymore. Instead, they've been replaced by inflated salaries that aren't earned, just given out because GMs aren't being rescued from themselves. As much as I want to see the NHL succeed, I'm looking forward to the year when the cap doesn't increase; in fact, I'd love to see it decrease, just to see some accountability for all this spending. The GMs in the NHL have taken the most perfect salary system in sports and destroyed it. Instead of blaming each other for it, they need to look in the mirror and realize what they've done - preferably before we need another work stoppage to correct it.

An Uncrowned King Among Us...

And for the 9th time in the last 9 seasons, we will have a new Stanley Cup Champion this year, with Dallas's 6-game victory over Anaheim and their "unstoppable defense." Someone should check their penalty killers for porous body parts, as they gave up 10 power play goals this series.

I love when we have new champs in any sport (not that I really like any other sport). A changing of the guard is good for the game. Dynasties like the Lakers, Celtics, Canadiens, and Patriots are great when looking back at the record books, but they are pretty freakin' boring while they are going on. (Plus, I hate Tom Brady for being better looking and more athletic than me. He also dates hotter girls.)

Detroit, of course, was the last team to repeat as champs. Their bid to 3-peat ended to the Avalanche in the 2nd round in 1999. Dallas made 2 straight Finals appearances, winning in '99 and losing in '00 to Jersey. The Devils were the last team to make 2 straight appearances in the Finals as they lost to Colorado in 2001. 

The Avalanche lost in the 3rd round to Detroit in 2002. Then it gets dicey.

The year after the Red Wings won the Cup, they got swept by Anaheim in the first round. The Devils won the Cup in 2003 then lost to Philadelphia the next year in the first round. However, the teams they beat, Carolina and Anaheim, didn't even make the playoffs after making the Finals the season before.

Stats are skewed with the Tampa Bay Lightning because of the lockout, but they did make the playoffs in the first two seasons after winning the Cup, bouncing in the first round each. 

Carolina and Edmonton both made the Finals in 05-06, and both haven't seen the postseason since. Last season, Anaheim and Ottawa battled into June. Both teams might battle this year (cliche alert!) for tee times in May.

What is my point? None, really. I was just excited to have a new champion this year and decided to write about how the teams who have made the Finals (and won the Cup, as well) have been doing poorly the next season. On the radio, they make it out to be because they are drained from the long journey to the Finals, which may be true. I think it's not so much the journey, it's the fact that there are only 70-some-odd days to rest up before training camp and the next season as opposed to an extra month or two that some other teams enjoy having. 

Could just be random events conspiring. With the Ducks, they had a magical run. J.S. Giguere wasn't as incredible the next season as he was in the '03 playoffs. Paul Kariya left for Colorado (failed). They needed time, but they eventually got their prize. So did Carolina.  Maybe Ottawa will next year (probably not). New Jersey lost their core. Scott Stevens played less than half the next season, including no playoff games. Ken Daneyko retired after listing the Cup a 3rd time, Joe Nieuwendy left, Jeff Friesen realized he was awful, Fatso was human, and Jamie Langenbrunner got hurt. They, however, haven't been the same since that season.

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In any event, let's hope you all are rooting for Boston to win tomorrow night over Montreal, in the first Game 7 since Dallas beat Vancouver in last year's first round. I'm actually shocked that this is the game Versus is featuring since they have an apparent love affair with the Capitals. 

We should also hope Philadelphia loses Game 6 to Washington then wins in Game 7, thus giving Jagr, Shanahan, and Straka more time to heal (as well as Gomez, Staal, Mara, Orr, Rozsival, and Lundqvist), all while cementing me eating cheesesteaks next week.

It's 3:30 a.m., give me a break!

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The Rangers portion of The Rivalry wholeheartedly endorses Forgetting Sarah Marshall, gratuitous penis scenes and all. 

Playoff Prognostications - Volume I

With the Isles' hopes looking dimmer than ever - the team's prayers rest on the shoulders of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers - now is an appropriate time to look at the rest of the league. Who's going to win the Cup this year? Who's for real? Who's going to choke in the first round?

Glad you asked.

Thanks to the wonders that are Center Ice and the NHL Network, I'm better equipped than ever to answer these questions. Let's face it - the league is kind of hard to follow. It's not easy to keep up on all the goings-on in the NHL, particularly out West, where we might see one game a week if we're lucky. Sometimes, the standings don't tell the whole story. Not that I'll be able to fill in the blanks or anything, but it's fun to speculate.

We all know what wins in the playoffs. Great goaltending. A favorable schedule. Balance between scorers and role players. These are the things that have traditionally separated the great from the good and, while we don't know everything about the Cup contenders yet, we have a much better idea than we did before the trade deadline.

With that in mind, let's look at who's out there and what their chances are at hoisting the Cup in June. These are just guesses as to what could happen, so don't take the predictions too seriously.

Eastern Conference
1. New Jersey (71 GP, 88 points). The Devils always seem to have the same type of season every year - they're right at the top of the conference, they fire their coach right before the playoffs, then they crap out in the first two rounds. To me, the Devils are a better version of the Islanders. Their main strength is the goaltending, but they can't always score the goals they need to win every night. The Devils have the second-worst power play in the East (guess who has the worst). That won't cut it in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit

2. Ottawa (72 GP, 87 points). Ottawa has been pretty much horrendous since the first quarter of the season ended. They're truly befuddling. You look at this team and think all the pieces are in place. Nobody in the East can match their personnel. They've got every kind of player you could possibly want, and the Big Three are obviously beyond compare. The only problem - and it's a huge problem - is their goaltending. As good as Martin Gerber has been this year, do you really trust him in a big game? When the alternative is Ray "Sorry I'm Late" Emery, you could be in trouble. Not to say they can't make a run, but they seem a good candidate to fall short.
Prediction: Conference finals exit

4. Pittsburgh (71 GP, 87 points). The wet dream of every NBC and NHL executive is for Pittsburgh to make a deep playoff run. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. Call it instinct more than anything. There are two things working against Pittsburgh here; believe it or not, neither of them are named Ty Conklin. Their biggest concern is Sidney Crosby and his continuing health problems. Ask anybody who's ever played fantasy football - high ankle sprains linger for a very long time. Not only do you have a player whose health can't be relied upon, but also a player who will mess with Pittsburgh's line combinations and gameplans. He won't be as big a distraction as Eric Lindros in 2000, but he won't have a seamless transition into the lineup. Their second issue is that they haven't had one of those gut-wrenching, character-building playoff losses yet. This is an extremely young team, one that doesn't know what it takes to win it all. It's a shame, too, because their opportunity window will never be higher than it is with Marian Hossa in the lineup. But this isn't their year. If you're looking for a big-ticket upset in the first round, look no further than the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Prediction: First-round exit

5. Montreal (72 GP, 87 points). On the other hand, if you're looking for a Cinderella team, Montreal could very well be who you'd want to go with. If the Stanley Cup is going to come back to the East, it'll either be Ottawa or Montreal. No other team even comes close to being able to compete with the West offensively. Everyone knows Montreal can score and that they have a ridiculous power play, but they're also pretty underrated defensively. And Carey Price seems like he has what it takes to make The Leap in these playoffs. More than anything, what a team needs to advance is a hot goalie, and Price seems like he's up to the task. He's going to need it - Montreal plays six of its remaining ten games against Boston, Ottawa, and Buffalo. Odds are good they won't receive a favorable seed. Price is going to need to be huge early and often... but the Habs are for real, and this could be their year.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals

6. NY Rangers (71 GP, 83 points). The Rangers have performed significantly under expectations for much of this season; however, they seem to have found their legs for the stretch run. Good timing. As Zach said the other day, the Rangers will go as far as their seeding will take them. They're currently sixth, which is great, but should they slip any further than that, they could be in trouble. Hell, even if they move up, they could still end up playing the Canadiens or Penguins. It's tough to say what to expect for the Blueshirts in the playoffs, especially because Henrik Lundqvist has been extremely human over the second half. Still, this Rangers team has enough firepower to win at least one round, but a deep playoff run might be out of the question at this point in time.
Prediction: Second-round exit

Sleeper: Buffalo (9th in East, 72 GP, 77 points). No, the Sabres aren't going back to the conference finals. But they could make life very difficult for anyone they play in the first two rounds. Ryan Miller is capable of stealing a game if he has to, while their offense hangs 7's and 8's on other teams seemingly once per week. If they get in - and that depends largely on getting back the half of their team that's injured - they're going to stretch at least one series to seven games.

Western Conference
1. Detroit (71 GP, 100 points). For much of the season, Detroit has been the league's best team by a long shot. They gave us a bit of a scare in February, including a stretch where they earned just four out of a possible 24 points, but it looks like they're back now. After winning their last five straight, they're ten points ahead of San Jose, and that's including their horrid February. Not bad, eh? On paper, it's hard to take the goaltending tandem of Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek seriously, but they've been great so far. Will they finally be exposed in the playoffs? Not in the first round, anyway. But Detroit has to be careful not to get too complacent - aside from one game against Colorado, all of their remaining games are against non-playoff teams (though three are against Nashville, just two points out). The Wings would be smart to not do anything stupid, like rest all their players once they lock up the President's Trophy - we've learned countless times in the NFL that it never works. Detroit is certainly beatable... I just can't think of any team who can beat them four times out of seven.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals

2. San Jose (70 GP, 90 points). I'm watching the Sharks on Center Ice as I write this, and they're just toying with St. Louis. Just 13 minutes into the game, they were up 4-0. The Sharks make me wish I lived out West; they're easily my favorite Western team to watch. The problem with the Sharks has nothing to do with their talent, or their goaltending, or anything else. Sure, they're a step behind Detroit, but they could certainly give the Wings a run for their money. The real issue is that they may have already peaked. Assuming they polish off the Blues, that'll be eleven straight wins. As we all know, it's most important to be at your best in April and May than it is to be unstoppable in February and March. I'm extremely high on this Sharks team... right now. I just get the feeling we're seeing their best hockey right now and they'll be ripe for an upset in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit

4. Dallas (73 GP, 89 points). A lot of people are loving Dallas and spouting off their Stanley Cup qualifications, but I'm not seeing it. I haven't seen a ton of Dallas this year, but I don't see what makes them better than any of the other West contenders. Brad Richards doesn't put this team over the top in my eyes; a healthy Sergei Zubov will do more for the Stars than Richards down the stretch. What it comes down to for Dallas is Marty Turco. He was awesome last year in the playoffs, but he'll have to show it wasn't a fluke. Dallas could very easily draw a team like Anaheim in the first round, and in that case, Turco is going to have to steal it for Dallas to advance. Call me crazy, but I don't see it happening.
Prediction: First-round exit

5. Anaheim (73 GP, 88 points). It's been a tale of two seasons for the Ducks - they were awful before Scott Niedermayer came back, and they've been good since he returned. Now that Teemu Selanne is back and playing to his highest capabilities, the team is getting ready to peak in the playoffs. The Ducks would do very well to secure home-ice advantage for at least one round; while they're under .500 on the road, they've got the best home record in the league. It never hurts to play at home, even under the worst of circumstances, let alone when you've only lost eight regulation games there. While the Ducks have plenty of guys who can score, they're also an above-average team on defense... and, as the cliche says, defense wins championships. However, if Chris Prongers ends up missing significant time due to suspension, they could be in trouble.
Prediction: Conference finals exit

Sleeper: Calgary (7th in West, 71 GP, 82 points). Phoenix is one of the most fun teams to watch in the West, and Nashville might be a better team, but Calgary is the one team that can make something of a run. They've been there before, they have a goalie very capable of getting hot, and Mike Keenan can convince this team that they can do the impossible. They're not going to beat a Detroit or anything, but if they end up meeting Dallas or Colorado... don't say you weren't warned.