The Islanders' season starts tomorrow, and yet everybody is convinced that it's already over. Are they right?
Sort of.
I've gotten a fair amount of crap from people for being too hard on my own team. Hey, it's a defense mechanism. You root for teams like the Islanders, the Jets, the Mets, and Newcastle United and you start to accept losing. You don't want to get your hopes up because you know you'll just hurt that much more when the other shoe drops. I don't think any Islander fan ever expects to see a winning team, just that they really, really want one.
So, as the NHL Network would say, is this the year? In terms of scoring points, no. In terms of cracking the top eight, no. In terms of being a pushover? Absolutely not. These Islanders do have a few things going for them... and here they are.
- Nobody knows them yet. Scott Gordon is new to the NHL, and most opposing coaches are not sure what to expect. We've all heard about the Isles rebuilding themselves as a "speed" team, but with so many veterans in the lineup, who really knows for sure how they'll look? Even if it's out of necessity, that the Islanders can give opponents a number of different looks does work in their favor.
- They never quit. One thing you have to say about the Islanders is that they don't give up, even when they're playing for nothing and they're down four goals. Just because Ted Nolan's gone doesn't mean the team is going to go soft. Gordon might not be the disciplinarian Nolan was, but word is that Gordon's a very vocal coach, meaning he's not going to tolerate lazy play.
- They'll have support. People love to dump on the Islanders and their fanbase. Some of the criticism is justified, but a lot of it isn't. Hockey fans on Long Island are dying for a team they can be proud of. They might not have that yet, but with the Islanders' aggressive marketing and ticket promotions, they'll be looking at crowds of at least 12,000 on the worst of nights. Compared with where we've been, that's not bad.
- The young players will only get better. Josh Bailey is likely to play nine games in an Islander uniform this year. That's a great head start for an 18-year-old. But the other young players who just signed one-way contracts, like Frans Nielsen and Bruno Gervais, will have a full season to not only get acclimated to the NHL, but start to get extremely comfortable. There's a decent chance this team gels by March or so and starts to play a pretty good spoiler role. Even if it doesn't happen, at least next year's team will have a full year of NHL experience.
Now, those of us who have followed the Islanders for a long time can pretty much tell how this season is going to play out. They know because the same thing happens pretty much every year. The Islanders are going to start out doing well, ending October in the East's top eight. Over November and December, they're going to have ups and downs, but will steady out and remain in the top ten. They'll crap out on the West Coast, like they always do, and come home and get those points back. At the All-Star Break, they'll be within six points of a playoff spot. Sounds familiar? It should.
The key to any Islanders season is mid February through early March. This is where the team has to figure out if it's a buyer or a seller. It's been hard to tell lately. In 2005-06, they waived the white flag and dumped off Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel. In 2006-07, they sold the farm to get Ryan Smyth. Last year, they did nothing and collapsed in March. This year? Although they'll be situated fairly well in the standings, Garth Snow will see the opportunity to improve his team over the long haul by dumping off some veterans. And unlike last year, he'll take advantage of the opportunity. As the veterans leave and the not-quite-ready Sound Tigers fill in the gaps, the Islanders will slip. They'll play well, but will lose lots of close games after which the other team will say things like, "They've got a lot of energy," and "They've got a lot of good young talent over there."
Will it be enough to land in the draft lottery? Islander fans don't want to admit it, but they sure hope so. But be careful what you wish for, Islander Country. As Scotty Hockey ominously predicted, the NHL could very well decide to screw the Islanders to ensure John Tavares goes to Toronto. Could you script a worse ending? Ugh.
So let's forget that scenario. Let's not look at this season as an investment into our future. Let's enjoy it for what it is - the chance to watch our boys play hard for 82 games. If they do great, that's great. If they're awful, so be it. Me, I'm just thankful hockey is back.
Sort of.
I've gotten a fair amount of crap from people for being too hard on my own team. Hey, it's a defense mechanism. You root for teams like the Islanders, the Jets, the Mets, and Newcastle United and you start to accept losing. You don't want to get your hopes up because you know you'll just hurt that much more when the other shoe drops. I don't think any Islander fan ever expects to see a winning team, just that they really, really want one.
So, as the NHL Network would say, is this the year? In terms of scoring points, no. In terms of cracking the top eight, no. In terms of being a pushover? Absolutely not. These Islanders do have a few things going for them... and here they are.
- Nobody knows them yet. Scott Gordon is new to the NHL, and most opposing coaches are not sure what to expect. We've all heard about the Isles rebuilding themselves as a "speed" team, but with so many veterans in the lineup, who really knows for sure how they'll look? Even if it's out of necessity, that the Islanders can give opponents a number of different looks does work in their favor.
- They never quit. One thing you have to say about the Islanders is that they don't give up, even when they're playing for nothing and they're down four goals. Just because Ted Nolan's gone doesn't mean the team is going to go soft. Gordon might not be the disciplinarian Nolan was, but word is that Gordon's a very vocal coach, meaning he's not going to tolerate lazy play.
- They'll have support. People love to dump on the Islanders and their fanbase. Some of the criticism is justified, but a lot of it isn't. Hockey fans on Long Island are dying for a team they can be proud of. They might not have that yet, but with the Islanders' aggressive marketing and ticket promotions, they'll be looking at crowds of at least 12,000 on the worst of nights. Compared with where we've been, that's not bad.
- The young players will only get better. Josh Bailey is likely to play nine games in an Islander uniform this year. That's a great head start for an 18-year-old. But the other young players who just signed one-way contracts, like Frans Nielsen and Bruno Gervais, will have a full season to not only get acclimated to the NHL, but start to get extremely comfortable. There's a decent chance this team gels by March or so and starts to play a pretty good spoiler role. Even if it doesn't happen, at least next year's team will have a full year of NHL experience.
Now, those of us who have followed the Islanders for a long time can pretty much tell how this season is going to play out. They know because the same thing happens pretty much every year. The Islanders are going to start out doing well, ending October in the East's top eight. Over November and December, they're going to have ups and downs, but will steady out and remain in the top ten. They'll crap out on the West Coast, like they always do, and come home and get those points back. At the All-Star Break, they'll be within six points of a playoff spot. Sounds familiar? It should.
The key to any Islanders season is mid February through early March. This is where the team has to figure out if it's a buyer or a seller. It's been hard to tell lately. In 2005-06, they waived the white flag and dumped off Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel. In 2006-07, they sold the farm to get Ryan Smyth. Last year, they did nothing and collapsed in March. This year? Although they'll be situated fairly well in the standings, Garth Snow will see the opportunity to improve his team over the long haul by dumping off some veterans. And unlike last year, he'll take advantage of the opportunity. As the veterans leave and the not-quite-ready Sound Tigers fill in the gaps, the Islanders will slip. They'll play well, but will lose lots of close games after which the other team will say things like, "They've got a lot of energy," and "They've got a lot of good young talent over there."
Will it be enough to land in the draft lottery? Islander fans don't want to admit it, but they sure hope so. But be careful what you wish for, Islander Country. As Scotty Hockey ominously predicted, the NHL could very well decide to screw the Islanders to ensure John Tavares goes to Toronto. Could you script a worse ending? Ugh.
So let's forget that scenario. Let's not look at this season as an investment into our future. Let's enjoy it for what it is - the chance to watch our boys play hard for 82 games. If they do great, that's great. If they're awful, so be it. Me, I'm just thankful hockey is back.
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