With The First Overall Pick...

As every Islanders fan knows, the 2009 NHL Entry Draft is coming up on Friday. This is essentially the Stanley Cup Final of the Islanders' 2008-09 season. If they don't come out of this draft with a superstar, the entire season - and all the suffering that came with it - will have been a total waste.

Of course, there isn't much worry about getting a great player with the first overall pick in this year's draft. There are three stud prospects at the top of this draft. Everyone's ready everything about all of these guys already, so there isn't all that much I can add to the discussion. However, if you're an Islanders fan and you're not going absolutely insane wondering what they'll do with this pick, you're lying. After all, these are the Islanders; if there's a way to screw this up, they'll find it.

I will, however, say one thing. No matter what happens, I'm not going the route of many fans out there. That is, if the pick isn't John Tavares, I won't abandon the Islanders. With all of my heart and soul, I want them to pick John Tavares. After the past fifteen years of atrocious hockey and even worse personnel moves, I feel like the Islanders fanbase is entitled to see the team get the consensus top guy, not to mention a potential superstar. Make no mistake about it, if the pick is Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene, it's not going to be a pretty scene at the Coliseum on Friday night.

Islanders fans love to complain. (Don't get offended, but it's true.) To hear Islanders fans tell it, it's just their luck that this happens the year that they get the first overall pick. No other team has to deal with this crap... or so they say. Truth is, a very similar thing happened just three years ago.

In 2006, the Houston Texans had the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. That year, there were three main players that everybody thought had a shot to go first overall. There was Reggie Bush, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who had torn up the entire college football world. There was Matt Leinart, Bush's teammate at USC who had won the Heisman the prior year and probably would have been picked first overall had he left school that year. Lastly, there was Vince Young, who pretty much won the Rose Bowl all by himself and had grown up in Houston. Of the three, the top guy was probably Bush, with the others not too far behind.

The Texans, not unlike the Islanders, refused to tip their hands. The night before the draft, word leaked that they had signed their first pick to a contract. Only thing is, it wasn't with any of the big three. Instead, they had agreed to draft Mario Williams, a physically impressive defensive end, but hardly a guy who would get fans excited about Texans football. As you can imagine, fan reaction wasn't very pretty. Nor was the reaction from pundits and analysts, many of whom immediately called the move one of the worst in football history.

There were two main reasons why the Texans made this move. The first was financially motivated. Contract holdouts, particularly among rookies, are prevalent in the NFL, and the Texans wanted to make sure they could sign the player they drafted. Williams wasn't the big name any of the other three were and didn't demand as much money. The other issue was that the Texans felt Williams fit their needs. Texans management felt they needed someone to pressure Peyton Manning twice a year more than they needed a quarterback or running back. Still, most thought they were crazy for passing on three elite talents.

Three years later, the picture has cleared up a little bit. During the Arizona Cardinals' run to the Super Bowl, Leinart lost his starting job and held a clipboard while his team played in their biggest games. Bush had a great first year for the Saints, but has been injured for much of the past two years. And, in perhaps the biggest tragedy of them all, Young had a mental breakdown, lost his starting job, and watched his Titans reach the AFC Championship game with a different quarterback under center. Williams, for all of the criticism he and his team received at the 2006 Draft, has recorded 26 sacks in the past two years and was named an All-Pro in 2008.

What can the Islanders learn from all of this?

- First and foremost, the players the Islanders pick doesn't immediately mean much. Only time will tell how good or bad of a pick this will be.

- The Islanders should be using this time to determine the best player available, not talk themselves into making the smartest move. This is something the Islanders have traditionally done, much to the chagrin of Islanders fans. We've seen Rick DiPietro over Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik. We've seen Robert Nilsson over Zach Parise. Please, let's not see any more of this overthinking. The best player is the best player.

- The Islanders shouldn't be too worried about their needs right now. They need help in every area. Just take the best player.

After the Texans made their pick, many accused their management of overthinking the draft. This is something that's pretty easy to do, especially in the NFL, where crap players have suddenly become first-round picks because they had good workouts. And if anybody would fall into that category in this draft, it'd have to be Matt Duchene.

I'll admit, I've never seen Duchene play. But to hear the way people suddenly gush about him - particularly since the Islanders received the first overall pick - I'm a bit conflicted. People proclaim how Duchene is the most complete player in the draft and how he's a "winner". At the same time, though, he played on his team's second line in the OHL and didn't even make the Canadian World Junior Championships team - a team Tavares captained to the title, dominating throughout the tournament.

In addition, here's this. The whole theory of, "Tavares will score a bunch of goals, but Duchene will win you a Stanley Cup," is complete bullcrap. How can anybody say Duchene will be more of a winner in the NHL than anybody else? Duchene projects to be a Mike Richards-type player, which is great, but it takes a team to win. Besides, hanging the "winner" tag around Duchene's neck is just as bad, if not worse, than the "savior" tag Tavares has already been stuck with.

In the end, we know Garth Snow and his staff will show absolutely no consideration for what the fans want or what they feel they deserve. As much as that drives us crazy, that's the way it should be. My only hope, aside from Snow making the right pick, is that fans don't immediately turn on the Islanders if the pick isn't Tavares. Most fans have never even seen any of these three play. Let's not be so quick to judge this pick based on what we think we want. There will be plenty of time to judge the 2009 Draft over the next fifteen or so years.