How Good Are Predictions?...

We know the gig. Everyone from a famous magazine, to a beat writer, to a blogger, to a hack buying a sandwich at Hot & Crusty before a Rangers' game makes predictions on the season before the puck drops, based on trades, offseason signings, and personal biases. Yes, personal biases. How else do you explain me picking the Rangers to make the playoffs in 2005-06 when everyone had them as dead? How else do you explain me and Larry Brooks both proclaiming them Stanley Cup champions in 2006-07, or me sending them to the Finals again last year?

Well, ever wonder just how accurate these predictions are? Before last season, I wrote down predictions from 4 sources - me, Newsday's beat writer Steve Zipay, Eklund from that rumor website, and ESPN (don't know who wrote the article, though).

After the season, I wrote down the real finishing order of both conferences, compared, and contrasted. I gave 2 points if the team finished in the exact spot predicted, and 1 point if they finished in or out of the playoffs as predicted, but with a different finishing order. For Newsday, he just listed "playoff teams" without a specific order, so I gave him 2 points for every team that made the playoffs that he predicted. Okay, without further ado, the results...

Second Place (tie)

In last place was ESPN, who only predicted 2 out of 6 division winners correctly (San Jose and Detroit). They thought both Atlanta and the Southeast-winning Capitals would be worse than actual worst-in-the-league Tampa Bay. They did have a lot of playoff teams, especially in the West, where the only team they overlooked was Minnesota (giving the nod to the Canucks, instead). 

24 points

Second Place (tie)

The bronze medal goes to The Rivalry's own Zach, who homered like no other, picking the Rangers to win the Atlantic (2nd overall in the east behind Ottawa), then winning the Stanley Cup by beating Calgary. Wow. Both of my Finals teams were out by the 2nd round. I also only had two spots dead-on, as I correctly predicted the Red Wings-Predators first round match-up that was. I as well had Tampa Bay to win their division, but I also had Washington making the playoffs. Uh, I also had Toronto in the playoffs and conference-winning Montreal on the outside looking in. Predicting the Flyers and Bruins to miss the playoffs? My bad. Like ESPN, I had 7 of 8 playoff teams in, only choosing Vancouver over the Wild.

24 points

Second Place (tie)

Newsday's correspondent Steve Zipay decided to not list an order and just put in who he thought would skate in the playoffs. His East was not too good, picking the Leafs, Hurricanes, and Sabres over actual-playoff teams Boston, Montreal, and Washington. In the West, he redeemed himself, going the ever-popular 7 of 8. The only blemish on his record their was Vancouver's missing of the playoffs. The team he left out - Nashville.

24 points

First Place

As much as it pains me, that Guy from the Site that announced "rumors" came in first place last year. He predicted the Penguins to come in 2nd in the East, the Capitals to come in 3rd, the Red Wings to win the West (easiest and most popular pick there was, apparently). He also capitalized on being from Philadelphia by picking the Flyers to make the playoffs. His only two mistakes in the East were Buffalo and Toronto, as he left out the Bruins and the Devils. He actually predicted the Devils to finish in 14th, with only Atlanta below them. In the West, his one mistake was, yes, Vancouver. He left out Dallas, who ended up 5th and dispatched the defending champion Ducks. He had Dallas coming in 13th, behind lottery teams St. Louis and Los Angeles.

27 points

So, what did we learn here? It's pretty tough to accurately predict, which is why we can't take them too seriously. The time will come on this blog when me and Bryan will make predictions, and both will put our favorite team way too high on the list. Well, at least he will. I'll put the Rangers where they will be at season's end - 1st, and he'll put the Islanders where he hopes they'll be - 9th. 

And the moral of the story is not to pick the Vancouver Canucks to do anything except lose, a tidbit I should've remembered from the year after the lockout, when I predicted them and Ottawa to be in the Stanley Cup finals, only to have them not make the playoffs.