With the Isles' hopes looking dimmer than ever - the team's prayers rest on the shoulders of the Bridgeport Sound Tigers - now is an appropriate time to look at the rest of the league. Who's going to win the Cup this year? Who's for real? Who's going to choke in the first round?
Glad you asked.
Thanks to the wonders that are Center Ice and the NHL Network, I'm better equipped than ever to answer these questions. Let's face it - the league is kind of hard to follow. It's not easy to keep up on all the goings-on in the NHL, particularly out West, where we might see one game a week if we're lucky. Sometimes, the standings don't tell the whole story. Not that I'll be able to fill in the blanks or anything, but it's fun to speculate.
We all know what wins in the playoffs. Great goaltending. A favorable schedule. Balance between scorers and role players. These are the things that have traditionally separated the great from the good and, while we don't know everything about the Cup contenders yet, we have a much better idea than we did before the trade deadline.
With that in mind, let's look at who's out there and what their chances are at hoisting the Cup in June. These are just guesses as to what could happen, so don't take the predictions too seriously.
Eastern Conference
1. New Jersey (71 GP, 88 points). The Devils always seem to have the same type of season every year - they're right at the top of the conference, they fire their coach right before the playoffs, then they crap out in the first two rounds. To me, the Devils are a better version of the Islanders. Their main strength is the goaltending, but they can't always score the goals they need to win every night. The Devils have the second-worst power play in the East (guess who has the worst). That won't cut it in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit
2. Ottawa (72 GP, 87 points). Ottawa has been pretty much horrendous since the first quarter of the season ended. They're truly befuddling. You look at this team and think all the pieces are in place. Nobody in the East can match their personnel. They've got every kind of player you could possibly want, and the Big Three are obviously beyond compare. The only problem - and it's a huge problem - is their goaltending. As good as Martin Gerber has been this year, do you really trust him in a big game? When the alternative is Ray "Sorry I'm Late" Emery, you could be in trouble. Not to say they can't make a run, but they seem a good candidate to fall short.
Prediction: Conference finals exit
4. Pittsburgh (71 GP, 87 points). The wet dream of every NBC and NHL executive is for Pittsburgh to make a deep playoff run. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. Call it instinct more than anything. There are two things working against Pittsburgh here; believe it or not, neither of them are named Ty Conklin. Their biggest concern is Sidney Crosby and his continuing health problems. Ask anybody who's ever played fantasy football - high ankle sprains linger for a very long time. Not only do you have a player whose health can't be relied upon, but also a player who will mess with Pittsburgh's line combinations and gameplans. He won't be as big a distraction as Eric Lindros in 2000, but he won't have a seamless transition into the lineup. Their second issue is that they haven't had one of those gut-wrenching, character-building playoff losses yet. This is an extremely young team, one that doesn't know what it takes to win it all. It's a shame, too, because their opportunity window will never be higher than it is with Marian Hossa in the lineup. But this isn't their year. If you're looking for a big-ticket upset in the first round, look no further than the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Prediction: First-round exit
5. Montreal (72 GP, 87 points). On the other hand, if you're looking for a Cinderella team, Montreal could very well be who you'd want to go with. If the Stanley Cup is going to come back to the East, it'll either be Ottawa or Montreal. No other team even comes close to being able to compete with the West offensively. Everyone knows Montreal can score and that they have a ridiculous power play, but they're also pretty underrated defensively. And Carey Price seems like he has what it takes to make The Leap in these playoffs. More than anything, what a team needs to advance is a hot goalie, and Price seems like he's up to the task. He's going to need it - Montreal plays six of its remaining ten games against Boston, Ottawa, and Buffalo. Odds are good they won't receive a favorable seed. Price is going to need to be huge early and often... but the Habs are for real, and this could be their year.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals
6. NY Rangers (71 GP, 83 points). The Rangers have performed significantly under expectations for much of this season; however, they seem to have found their legs for the stretch run. Good timing. As Zach said the other day, the Rangers will go as far as their seeding will take them. They're currently sixth, which is great, but should they slip any further than that, they could be in trouble. Hell, even if they move up, they could still end up playing the Canadiens or Penguins. It's tough to say what to expect for the Blueshirts in the playoffs, especially because Henrik Lundqvist has been extremely human over the second half. Still, this Rangers team has enough firepower to win at least one round, but a deep playoff run might be out of the question at this point in time.
Prediction: Second-round exit
Sleeper: Buffalo (9th in East, 72 GP, 77 points). No, the Sabres aren't going back to the conference finals. But they could make life very difficult for anyone they play in the first two rounds. Ryan Miller is capable of stealing a game if he has to, while their offense hangs 7's and 8's on other teams seemingly once per week. If they get in - and that depends largely on getting back the half of their team that's injured - they're going to stretch at least one series to seven games.
Western Conference
1. Detroit (71 GP, 100 points). For much of the season, Detroit has been the league's best team by a long shot. They gave us a bit of a scare in February, including a stretch where they earned just four out of a possible 24 points, but it looks like they're back now. After winning their last five straight, they're ten points ahead of San Jose, and that's including their horrid February. Not bad, eh? On paper, it's hard to take the goaltending tandem of Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek seriously, but they've been great so far. Will they finally be exposed in the playoffs? Not in the first round, anyway. But Detroit has to be careful not to get too complacent - aside from one game against Colorado, all of their remaining games are against non-playoff teams (though three are against Nashville, just two points out). The Wings would be smart to not do anything stupid, like rest all their players once they lock up the President's Trophy - we've learned countless times in the NFL that it never works. Detroit is certainly beatable... I just can't think of any team who can beat them four times out of seven.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals
2. San Jose (70 GP, 90 points). I'm watching the Sharks on Center Ice as I write this, and they're just toying with St. Louis. Just 13 minutes into the game, they were up 4-0. The Sharks make me wish I lived out West; they're easily my favorite Western team to watch. The problem with the Sharks has nothing to do with their talent, or their goaltending, or anything else. Sure, they're a step behind Detroit, but they could certainly give the Wings a run for their money. The real issue is that they may have already peaked. Assuming they polish off the Blues, that'll be eleven straight wins. As we all know, it's most important to be at your best in April and May than it is to be unstoppable in February and March. I'm extremely high on this Sharks team... right now. I just get the feeling we're seeing their best hockey right now and they'll be ripe for an upset in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit
4. Dallas (73 GP, 89 points). A lot of people are loving Dallas and spouting off their Stanley Cup qualifications, but I'm not seeing it. I haven't seen a ton of Dallas this year, but I don't see what makes them better than any of the other West contenders. Brad Richards doesn't put this team over the top in my eyes; a healthy Sergei Zubov will do more for the Stars than Richards down the stretch. What it comes down to for Dallas is Marty Turco. He was awesome last year in the playoffs, but he'll have to show it wasn't a fluke. Dallas could very easily draw a team like Anaheim in the first round, and in that case, Turco is going to have to steal it for Dallas to advance. Call me crazy, but I don't see it happening.
Prediction: First-round exit
5. Anaheim (73 GP, 88 points). It's been a tale of two seasons for the Ducks - they were awful before Scott Niedermayer came back, and they've been good since he returned. Now that Teemu Selanne is back and playing to his highest capabilities, the team is getting ready to peak in the playoffs. The Ducks would do very well to secure home-ice advantage for at least one round; while they're under .500 on the road, they've got the best home record in the league. It never hurts to play at home, even under the worst of circumstances, let alone when you've only lost eight regulation games there. While the Ducks have plenty of guys who can score, they're also an above-average team on defense... and, as the cliche says, defense wins championships. However, if Chris Prongers ends up missing significant time due to suspension, they could be in trouble.
Prediction: Conference finals exit
Sleeper: Calgary (7th in West, 71 GP, 82 points). Phoenix is one of the most fun teams to watch in the West, and Nashville might be a better team, but Calgary is the one team that can make something of a run. They've been there before, they have a goalie very capable of getting hot, and Mike Keenan can convince this team that they can do the impossible. They're not going to beat a Detroit or anything, but if they end up meeting Dallas or Colorado... don't say you weren't warned.
Glad you asked.
Thanks to the wonders that are Center Ice and the NHL Network, I'm better equipped than ever to answer these questions. Let's face it - the league is kind of hard to follow. It's not easy to keep up on all the goings-on in the NHL, particularly out West, where we might see one game a week if we're lucky. Sometimes, the standings don't tell the whole story. Not that I'll be able to fill in the blanks or anything, but it's fun to speculate.
We all know what wins in the playoffs. Great goaltending. A favorable schedule. Balance between scorers and role players. These are the things that have traditionally separated the great from the good and, while we don't know everything about the Cup contenders yet, we have a much better idea than we did before the trade deadline.
With that in mind, let's look at who's out there and what their chances are at hoisting the Cup in June. These are just guesses as to what could happen, so don't take the predictions too seriously.
Eastern Conference
1. New Jersey (71 GP, 88 points). The Devils always seem to have the same type of season every year - they're right at the top of the conference, they fire their coach right before the playoffs, then they crap out in the first two rounds. To me, the Devils are a better version of the Islanders. Their main strength is the goaltending, but they can't always score the goals they need to win every night. The Devils have the second-worst power play in the East (guess who has the worst). That won't cut it in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit
2. Ottawa (72 GP, 87 points). Ottawa has been pretty much horrendous since the first quarter of the season ended. They're truly befuddling. You look at this team and think all the pieces are in place. Nobody in the East can match their personnel. They've got every kind of player you could possibly want, and the Big Three are obviously beyond compare. The only problem - and it's a huge problem - is their goaltending. As good as Martin Gerber has been this year, do you really trust him in a big game? When the alternative is Ray "Sorry I'm Late" Emery, you could be in trouble. Not to say they can't make a run, but they seem a good candidate to fall short.
Prediction: Conference finals exit
4. Pittsburgh (71 GP, 87 points). The wet dream of every NBC and NHL executive is for Pittsburgh to make a deep playoff run. Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. Call it instinct more than anything. There are two things working against Pittsburgh here; believe it or not, neither of them are named Ty Conklin. Their biggest concern is Sidney Crosby and his continuing health problems. Ask anybody who's ever played fantasy football - high ankle sprains linger for a very long time. Not only do you have a player whose health can't be relied upon, but also a player who will mess with Pittsburgh's line combinations and gameplans. He won't be as big a distraction as Eric Lindros in 2000, but he won't have a seamless transition into the lineup. Their second issue is that they haven't had one of those gut-wrenching, character-building playoff losses yet. This is an extremely young team, one that doesn't know what it takes to win it all. It's a shame, too, because their opportunity window will never be higher than it is with Marian Hossa in the lineup. But this isn't their year. If you're looking for a big-ticket upset in the first round, look no further than the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Prediction: First-round exit
5. Montreal (72 GP, 87 points). On the other hand, if you're looking for a Cinderella team, Montreal could very well be who you'd want to go with. If the Stanley Cup is going to come back to the East, it'll either be Ottawa or Montreal. No other team even comes close to being able to compete with the West offensively. Everyone knows Montreal can score and that they have a ridiculous power play, but they're also pretty underrated defensively. And Carey Price seems like he has what it takes to make The Leap in these playoffs. More than anything, what a team needs to advance is a hot goalie, and Price seems like he's up to the task. He's going to need it - Montreal plays six of its remaining ten games against Boston, Ottawa, and Buffalo. Odds are good they won't receive a favorable seed. Price is going to need to be huge early and often... but the Habs are for real, and this could be their year.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals
6. NY Rangers (71 GP, 83 points). The Rangers have performed significantly under expectations for much of this season; however, they seem to have found their legs for the stretch run. Good timing. As Zach said the other day, the Rangers will go as far as their seeding will take them. They're currently sixth, which is great, but should they slip any further than that, they could be in trouble. Hell, even if they move up, they could still end up playing the Canadiens or Penguins. It's tough to say what to expect for the Blueshirts in the playoffs, especially because Henrik Lundqvist has been extremely human over the second half. Still, this Rangers team has enough firepower to win at least one round, but a deep playoff run might be out of the question at this point in time.
Prediction: Second-round exit
Sleeper: Buffalo (9th in East, 72 GP, 77 points). No, the Sabres aren't going back to the conference finals. But they could make life very difficult for anyone they play in the first two rounds. Ryan Miller is capable of stealing a game if he has to, while their offense hangs 7's and 8's on other teams seemingly once per week. If they get in - and that depends largely on getting back the half of their team that's injured - they're going to stretch at least one series to seven games.
Western Conference
1. Detroit (71 GP, 100 points). For much of the season, Detroit has been the league's best team by a long shot. They gave us a bit of a scare in February, including a stretch where they earned just four out of a possible 24 points, but it looks like they're back now. After winning their last five straight, they're ten points ahead of San Jose, and that's including their horrid February. Not bad, eh? On paper, it's hard to take the goaltending tandem of Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek seriously, but they've been great so far. Will they finally be exposed in the playoffs? Not in the first round, anyway. But Detroit has to be careful not to get too complacent - aside from one game against Colorado, all of their remaining games are against non-playoff teams (though three are against Nashville, just two points out). The Wings would be smart to not do anything stupid, like rest all their players once they lock up the President's Trophy - we've learned countless times in the NFL that it never works. Detroit is certainly beatable... I just can't think of any team who can beat them four times out of seven.
Prediction: Stanley Cup Finals
2. San Jose (70 GP, 90 points). I'm watching the Sharks on Center Ice as I write this, and they're just toying with St. Louis. Just 13 minutes into the game, they were up 4-0. The Sharks make me wish I lived out West; they're easily my favorite Western team to watch. The problem with the Sharks has nothing to do with their talent, or their goaltending, or anything else. Sure, they're a step behind Detroit, but they could certainly give the Wings a run for their money. The real issue is that they may have already peaked. Assuming they polish off the Blues, that'll be eleven straight wins. As we all know, it's most important to be at your best in April and May than it is to be unstoppable in February and March. I'm extremely high on this Sharks team... right now. I just get the feeling we're seeing their best hockey right now and they'll be ripe for an upset in the playoffs.
Prediction: Second-round exit
4. Dallas (73 GP, 89 points). A lot of people are loving Dallas and spouting off their Stanley Cup qualifications, but I'm not seeing it. I haven't seen a ton of Dallas this year, but I don't see what makes them better than any of the other West contenders. Brad Richards doesn't put this team over the top in my eyes; a healthy Sergei Zubov will do more for the Stars than Richards down the stretch. What it comes down to for Dallas is Marty Turco. He was awesome last year in the playoffs, but he'll have to show it wasn't a fluke. Dallas could very easily draw a team like Anaheim in the first round, and in that case, Turco is going to have to steal it for Dallas to advance. Call me crazy, but I don't see it happening.
Prediction: First-round exit
5. Anaheim (73 GP, 88 points). It's been a tale of two seasons for the Ducks - they were awful before Scott Niedermayer came back, and they've been good since he returned. Now that Teemu Selanne is back and playing to his highest capabilities, the team is getting ready to peak in the playoffs. The Ducks would do very well to secure home-ice advantage for at least one round; while they're under .500 on the road, they've got the best home record in the league. It never hurts to play at home, even under the worst of circumstances, let alone when you've only lost eight regulation games there. While the Ducks have plenty of guys who can score, they're also an above-average team on defense... and, as the cliche says, defense wins championships. However, if Chris Prongers ends up missing significant time due to suspension, they could be in trouble.
Prediction: Conference finals exit
Sleeper: Calgary (7th in West, 71 GP, 82 points). Phoenix is one of the most fun teams to watch in the West, and Nashville might be a better team, but Calgary is the one team that can make something of a run. They've been there before, they have a goalie very capable of getting hot, and Mike Keenan can convince this team that they can do the impossible. They're not going to beat a Detroit or anything, but if they end up meeting Dallas or Colorado... don't say you weren't warned.
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