Bryan's (Late) Finals Prediction

I haven't posted to this blog in a while. It's the longest I've gone since posting since we started this thing some fifteen months ago. For this, you can thank the atrocious third round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I know it wasn't really as bad as it seemed; after all, the Red Wings-Blackhawks series featured three overtime games. Truth be told, we were spoiled by a tremendous second round of playoff hockey. Nothing could have possibly topped that and, thankfully, none of the four teams involved bothered to try. We're in luck, though; if last year's Stanley Cup Final was any indication, we're in for a treat with this series.

Real quick, a word on the start of the Cup Final before my prediction. The NHL is perhaps the most oft-criticized league in all of professional sports, and we saw more examples of this as the conference finals drew to a close. Faced with the potential of a nine-day gap between rounds, the NHL bumped up its schedule a week, creating a much more manageable two-day gap. Of course, this invited media pundits to trash the NHL for kowtowing to NBC's scheduling whims.

What a load of crap. Yeah, NBC has control over the schedule. That's because they're essentially doing the NHL a favor by airing these playoff games on weeknights in June, when all their shows are in re-runs. NBC isn't paying a dime to air the Stanley Cup Finals. Instead, they're showcasing the shows that they're paying millions of dollars to produce. It's part of the way the game is played. But it beats the alternative of a deciding game being played on Versus - you can only imagine what people would be saying in that scenario.

As a hockey fan, I'm outraged that NBC thinks Conan O'Brien's new show is more important than the league I worship. At the same time, I have to give both NBC and the NHL a hand, because no other league would even dream of doing this. The NFL? They had initially taken away the extra week of Super Bowl hype, instead opting to air the Super Bowl the week after the conference championship games. They brought back that hype week just to get extra publicity - at the expense of the players' routines and preparation. The NBA promotes the start date of its' NBA Finals from the start of the playoffs and would never change it, lest they be accused of misleading its audience. As if casual fans circle the date of Game 1 of the NBA Finals and don't watch a second of playoff basketball until that date. And we all know how Major League Baseball feels about TV revenue, electing to start playoff games at Fox at 8:30* and ensuring that kids nationwide can't stay up to see the end of the season's most important games. 

* - I know MLB/Fox is currently making a huge deal about how they're going to be starting games before 8 PM for the first time in forever. What they don't tell you, though, is that these games will begin at 7:58 PM. And with pre-game ceremonies and all the usual World Series hoopla, I'll believe it when I see it.

That leaves the NHL - the same league that aired two Game 7s virtually simultaneously in both the first and second round so as not to put out the fans who paid good money for their tickets. They were much criticized for this as well; of course, most of the people doing the bashing are the same people who complain about the NFL's flex schedule and the TV-mandated late starting times of World Series and NBA Finals games. People should give the NHL credit for putting its fans first and capitalizing on an opportunity to serve its fans (and teams) better, instead of kissing the asses of TV executives like every other league does.

Anyway.

We have Detroit and Pittsburgh meeting in the Finals for the second straight year. Detroit is already up 1-0. For the purposes of the bet between Zach and myself, the best I can possibly do is tie. To accomplish this, I'd have to pick Detroit and not only be correct in the Red Wings winning, but also nail the correct number of games. If I pick Pittsburgh, I can't win no matter what.

So, what do I do? Pick Pittsburgh anyway. Pittsburgh in 6.

As they stand right now, the Red Wings remind me of the Devils teams of the past few years - just when you write them off, they find a new way to win. They're currently battling some serious injuries. Nicklas Lidstrom missed time against Chicago. Pavel Datsyuk didn't play last night and is out again tonight. How do they keep winning? Honestly, I have no idea. Common sense would dictate that they'll find a way to prevail in this series.

However, think about it. Can you even imagine a team losing to the same team in the finals two years in a row? Yes, I know the Buffalo Bills lost the Super Bowl to the Dallas Cowboys in consecutive years. But those are the Buffalo Bills. The Penguins won't be denied twice. Even though they lost last night, they have more skill than the Red Wings. Both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have shown they can take over games when necessary, and they're getting great play from guys like Ruslan Fedotenko and Bill Guerin. Plus, as great as Chris Osgood has been over his career, right now I trust Marc-Andre Fleury a little bit more.

So, Penguins in six. That means I lose the bet. It also means the Pens have to win four games out of the next five to advance. I think they can do it. Honestly, I was going to pick them to win in seven. But that'd mean they would be winning the Cup on the road, and there's something that's just not right about winning it on the road. They need to be at home when they hoist the Cup. I hope it works out for them.