Bryan's Playoff Predictions - Conference Semifinals

You may recall that, prior to the first round of the playoffs, Zach and I made our predictions for the conference quarterfinals. How did we do? Let's find out. Our scoring system is as follows: one point for the correct team, one point for the correct number of games, and one point for correctly picking an upset. And, once again, the loser of the playoff prediction game will donate $100 to charity.

 - Zach: Boston over Montreal in 5 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), New Jersey over Carolina in 6 (0), Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 6 (2), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Columbus over Detroit in 6 (0), Vancouver over St. Louis in 4 (2), Chicago over Calgary in 5 (1). Total: 6 points.

 - Bryan: Boston over Montreal in 6 (1), Rangers over Washington in 7 (0), Carolina over New Jersey in 6 (2), Philadelphia over Pittsburgh in 7 (0), San Jose over Anaheim in 4 (0), Detroit over Columbus in 6 (1), Vancouver over St. Louis in 7 (1), Chicago over Calgary in 6 (2). Total: 7 points.

OK, so we didn't have great showings in Round One. In my defense, I actually picked Washington over the Rangers in 7 in our sidebar poll before the playoffs began, but talked myself into the Rangers when it came time for actual predictions. Whoops.

Anyway, without further adieu, here are my picks for the second round. We'll be employing the same scoring system as the first round.

Eastern Conference

(1) Boston vs. (6) Carolina - Boston in 7

This series will not be the walkover the Bruins-Canadiens series was. The main difference is that Carolina has a hot goalie in Cam Ward who has already won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe Trophy. They also have Eric Staal, who is becoming more and more clutch by the day. Lastly, Carolina has momentum on their side, while the Bruins have been resting for a week. However, Boston has a more talented team than Carolina and it will show as this series unfolds. Carolina will win at least one of the first two games, probably the first one, and should be 2-2 after four games. Which is wonderful, except that it takes four wins to take the series, and with two of the final three in Boston, the Bruins should prevail.

(2) Washington vs. (4) Pittsburgh - Washington in 7

I'm going with Washington for three main reasons. First, against the Rangers, they proved they can play a physical series and win. Second, they made Henrik Lundqvist look mortal. Third, and most importantly, they have a red-hot young goalie named Simeon Varlamov. Is it foolish to put so much stock into a 21-year-old goalie? Not at all. He's not going to be overwhelmed by the pressure of the playoffs, nobody knows anything about him, he's got tons of momentum, and he's playing ridiculously well. Sure, it's not hard to hold the offensively inept Rangers to under two goals a game, but he also made the big saves when the Capitals needed him to. Having said all that, it won't be easy against a Penguins team that played a similarly physical series against Philadelphia. The real winners in this series, though, are the NHL and Versus - especially if this series goes seven games.

Western Conference

(2) Detroit vs. (8) Anaheim - Anaheim in 6

Yes, I am aware that I picked Anaheim to get swept in the first round. Why, then, would Anaheim beat the Detroit Red Wings in the second round? Well, it's more of a hunch than anything else. But again, goaltending is key. Strange as it is to say, I trust Jonas Hiller more than I trust Chris Osgood. Besides, the Red Wings haven't played since last Thursday. Since then, the Ducks beat San Jose twice and forced overtime in a third game. Even though Detroit swept Columbus in convincing fashion, it's hard to make the argument that Detroit is playing better than Anaheim right now. At worst, they're even. But if you consider that Anaheim is riding high after beating the Sharks in a series that just ended on Monday, things look a little bit different. Hence, I'm taking the Ducks in an upset.

(3) Vancouver vs. (4) Chicago - Vancouver in 7

For the third time in the four second-round series, I'll fall back on the old playoff adage - when in doubt, look at the goaltending matchups. Nikolai Khabibulin has won a Stanley Cup and has played well so far for the Blackhawks. But Roberto Luongo is one of the game's truly elite talents and should be able to play his best hockey in the playoffs, having missed a portion of the regular season. Besides, even though Luongo has played well in the playoffs in his young playoff career, he hasn't had that huge run that makes the great goalies even greater. The Blackhawks are no joke, though, and they'll make Luongo's job all the more difficult. I'd say the Blackhawks are significantly better on offense, but the goalies make all the difference in the playoffs. That's why the Canucks will be slightly better than a fine Chicago team.

How Good Are Predictions, Part II...

Each year, I write down a bunch of predictions from "industry experts," just to see how close they are. I also write down mine to compare. Last September, I posted the results on this page. I figured that we have some off-days now between playoff rounds, and since both local teams (and even the Devils) are out, why not do this post now as opposed to September.

Last year, for the record, ESPN, Newsday's Steve Zipay, and I all had 24 points. The big winner was Dwayne Kessel, aka "Eklund," from some Internet site that spouts "rumors," with 27 points.

This year, the combatants are once again Eklund, and myself. Joining the mix are Newsday's Mark Herrman, Sports Illustrated, and our Islanders' writer Bryan. Representing a once-anonymous ESPN will be E.J. Hradek.

(Scoring: 1 point for having a team correctly missing or making the playoffs; 2 points for predicting their exact position in the Conference.)

6th Place
I am sadly bringing up the rear on this campaign. A few gambles that I took (Tampa Bay winning the Southeast, Devils missing the playoffs, Colorado winning the Northwest, Edmonton and Phoenix making the playoffs) didn't exactly pan out. In fact, of 30 positions in the NHL, the only one I hit on the nose was Minnesota at 9th in the West. Sad, sad, sad predicting. I even had the Islanders coming in 14th in the East, ahead of Atlanta. I actually only predicted 1 division winner (Detroit, 1st in the West). It also appears my Dallas versus either Montreal or the Rangers in the Finals won't happen. In fact, I even said that Sean Avery would be sipping from the Stanley Cup this June.
19 points

5th Place
I shouldn't feel so bad, though. E.J. Hradek, who works for ESPN and hosts NHL Live on XM and the NHL Network, only beat me by 3 points. He only predicted 2 division winners (Red Wings and Capitals). The also picked the Devils to miss the playoffs, as well as Boston, both of whom won their division. He predicted Edmonton to win the Northwest. I still think my Colorado prediction was better! His bold prediction of Detroit over Pittsburgh in the Finals still can happen, though.
23 points

4th Place
Newcomer Mark Herrman, subbing for Zipay this year, ended in 4th. He nailed the Rangers in 7th, but that's about it. He picked 3 division winners, all in the wrong order (Washington, Detroit, San Jose). Dallas winning the Pacific instead of San Jose was his downfall. His Detroit prediction for the Cup Finals looks good, but Montreal will not be joining them. Better luck next year.
23 points

3rd Place
The bronze medal goes to an anonymous person at Sports Illustrated, who nailed 3 spots dead-on (Atlanta, 13th; Islanders, 15th; Nashville, 10th). They predicted 2 divison winners (Washington, Detroit), but 2 of their choices for the division didn't make the tournament (Minnesota, Dallas). SI did correctly choose 7 of 8 Eastern conference playoff teams, a feat only duplicated by Bryan. Their folly: Ottawa at 8th, Carolina at 9th.
26 points

2nd Place
Our own Bryan had a very strong showing, hitting 5 spots correctly (Capitals, 2nd; Philadelphia, 5th; Atlanta, 13th; his beloved Islanders, 15th; Edmonton, 11th in West). He had 4 division winners. His two misses: Penguins to win the Atlantic and Calgary to win the Northwest. His only East playoff team to miss was Tampa Bay, whom he predicted to come in 7th. They ended 14th, and his 14th team, Carolina, came in 6th. Not bad for a rookie, although his Finals prediction of San Jose hoisting the Cup at Madison Square Garden will not happen. Hey, much like his Islanders, there's always next year.
27 points!

1st Place
It pains me, but that Eklund guy from that website again won our competition. His Eastern conference wasn't that great: his only 2-point play was Washington in 2nd, and he picked the Devils and Carolina to miss the playoffs while putting Ottawa and Buffalo in. But he made up for it in the West, correctly guessing the final positions of San Jose, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Nashville. He did pick Edmonton to win their division instead of Vancouver, but he was one of only two (with Hradek) to pick Vancouver in the playoffs. He also was the only person to think San Jose would win the West, as the other 5 of us picked Detroit 1st in the conference. However, his long-term thinking is off: Both the Habs and Sharks lost in the 1st round and will not meet up in June.
28 points

Requiem for a Team...

Superstitious as I am, to prepare for tonight's Game 7, I did what I did for their last Game 7: Went to my fourth-grade class, headed to the Sunrise Mall, changed the lyrics to a song on the radio in my mom's Volvo to words about the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup, and sat down in my den to watch the game.

What can I say about the game itself? Not much. You watched it, I watched it, we know what happened. A great defensive play by Ryan Callahan turned into a double-deflection. Henrik Lundqvist was in position to stop a shot, but he couldn't get over to stop the freak deflection. Not his fault, not Callahan's, not Dan Girardi's.

I am pretty positive that when the players were gathering around Lundqvist at the end of the game, they were saying, "Sorry. We know you're the best in the game. Wish we could help you out. You don't deserve this." And I'm pretty sure he regretted signing a multi-year deal to be here.

I didn’t want to say anything earlier just in case the Rangers pulled out a Game 7 victory in Washington, but since that dream bubble has burst, I will say it: I had the same feeling going into Game 7 tonight that I did going into Game 6 in Buffalo in May 2007: defeat.

I did not, however, have this feeling for Game 5 in Pittsburgh, when I thought the Rangers could win. My theory was, win Game 5, Game 6 would be a guarantee, and Game 7 a 50/50 chance.

However, after Buffalo won Game 5 in overtime, you knew what would happen. Beaten, the Rangers would return to MSG and put up a half-hearted effort, and the Sabres would pounce upon them. And that did happen, with the Rangers going down 4-2 in the 2nd before a futile third period brought the score to a respectable 5-4.

The difference in Game 5 in Buffalo and Game 6 at MSG this past Sunday? Chris Drury scored in Buffalo.

I won’t blame this series or this season on Chris Drury. He is given 1st line money because of a great opportunity he was given: He beat the Rangers when he tied the game with 7.7 seconds left, then became one of the 3 best free agent forwards available less than 2 months later. Fact is, he is a 2nd line player. It’s not his fault that Glen Sather thought his career-high 69 points (37 G, 32 A) in 2006-07 was worthy of Jaromir Jagr/Joe Thornton money.

However, it again might be dark times ahead for the Rangers. As I’ve mentioned before, this team is handcuffed with Scott Gomez, Wade Redden, and Michal Rozsival. I’m actually getting sick of writing it, but here goes one more time:

This team has these insane salaries on the books for 5 more years (Gomez, Redden) and 3 more years (Rozsival). Once again, it isn’t their faults they’re getting paid this much money. Gomez got lucky also - him, Drury, and Daniel Briere were the top free agent forwards that summer, and he capitalized. The only this Redden is at fault for is accepting NY’s offer when another team offered him the same exact contract, but he wanted to play in NY (I can only guess that team was Toronto, though it is unconfirmed). Rozsival liked the Rangers for giving him a chance to comeback after the lockout, and Sather apparently thought his lax defensive play and his over-passing on the power play was worthy of Rob Blake/Sergei Zubov money.

No GM in their right mind would accept a trade for these underachievers (or I guess they are just “achieving” to their potential, which isn’t very high). In a salary cap world, who would take a $7M center until 2014 with a 5.9 shooting percentage (including empty netters) and who can’t crack 45 assists? Who would want a $6.5M defenseman with 3 goals and limited defensive skills? Is a $5M player who is responsible for more shorthanded goals against than power play goals for going to be high on anyone’s summer trading list?

Be sure, the darkest days are coming if these salaries are still on the books. No good free agents can be signed when the team teeters so close to the edge of the salary cap. That is $18.5M that can’t be alloted to re-signing Paul Mara or Derek Morris instead, or can’t be used to make a move at a real first line player, either via free agency or a trade.

Think Atlanta would accept Scott Gomez for Ilya Kovalchuk? Get real.

I had said numerous times that $39M can't buy you heart in this Emerald City. Tonight, Redden proved that. He actually did have one good play - I told my girlfriend to write down that after 8 pre-season games, 81 regular season games for him, and 7 playoff games, he finally had a good play. He then went and ruined everything by standing in front of Sergei Federov and refusing to drop down to block a shot. Apparently, Drury isn't the one with the broken hand, Redden is, as he also couldn't throw his stick out fast enough to try to block the shot once he decided he was too precious to drop down.

Five more years of Gomez. Five more years of Redden.

Something's gotta give.

Rangers Eliminated in 7

At 2:59 AM this morning, Zach sent me a text stating how he was going to write a retrospective about the Rangers' season after tonight's game. He sent me the title and everything. Clearly, he wasn't too optimistic about heading to the second round.

And with good reason.

After leading the series 3-1, the Rangers are going home early. In front of what has to be one of the loudest crowds I've ever heard, the Capitals emerged in the third period and defeated the Rangers by a score of 2-1. The Rangers were in control for much of the first two periods, but the Capitals were too much in the end. Sergei Fedorov scored with just under five minutes left and the Caps didn't let up; instead of sitting on their lead like so many teams do, Washington put so much pressure on the Rangers that they weren't even able to pull Henrik Lundqvist for an extra skater.

Zach will be by later on with more thoughts. Certainly, he'll point out that Wade Redden just sort of stood there as Fedorov shot the game-winning goal into the net. But let the record show that this was a team effort. Every player did his part to lose this series. From poor games by Lundqvist in Games 5 and 6 to the completely invisible play of team "leaders" Chris Drury and Scott Gomez, everyone is to blame. And that includes John Tortorella, who was so quick to bash Sean Avery for inappropriate behavior prior to becoming Rangers coach, but at least Avery wasn't squirting water at fans behind the bench during the middle of a playoff game.

Clearly, there will be changes. There has to be. But with the Rangers right up against the cap, it's hard to see the Rangers fielding a better team next season.

Brashear Suspended 6 Games...

Donald Brashear has been suspended for 6 games. One game was for his pre-game shove of Colton Orr, the other 5 for intending to injure Blair Betts.

This makes his intent to injure only 5/6th of the seriousness of Sean Avery's comments about Hollywood actress Elisha Cuthbert, you know, the girl in her underwear from Old School.

From Colin Campbell: “It is also my opinion that the hit was delivered late and targeted the head of his opponent, causing significant injury."

So for getting two suspensions in one game, Brashear was given 6 games, or, to him, 18 minutes.

The Good News...

Not going to dwell on the debauchery that was Game 6. I said all along that they wouldn't blow Game 6 at home up 3-2, and they made me look like fools.

However, there is good news.

The Rangers scored 3 goals on a backup goaltender!

Okay, so now Simeon Var-lah-mov is now the starter in Washington, but his goals against average was like 0.75 going into this game. He gave up 1 goal, 0 goals, 2 goals, and 0 goals. So they got 3 past him, albeit one of them when the game was a wash and it was 5-2.

Still, 3 goals is 3 goals, and if Henrik Lundqvist reads his own scouting report, they have a chance to win Game 7. Maybe not a strong chance, but a chance indeed. If they can score 3 goals and he can stop all but 2, well, you know how scoring works.

For the record, here is the scouting report on Lundqvist...

"Great goalie. Goes side to side better than any goaltender in NHL history. Flops down early in anticipation of a low shot, leaving the entire top of the net open."

* * *

Here is a list of players who played every regular season game for the Rangers: Dan Girardi, Brandon Dubinsky, Marc Staal, Colton Orr, Markus Naslund, and Nik Zherdev.

Yes, Colton Orr played 87 games this season, coached by Tom Renney and John Tortorella. Does Jim Schoenfeld not like him that he would sit Orr in the playoffs when that goon Donald Brashear is out there?

Capitals fan or not, you can't agree with how Brashear went up and randomly attacked Blair Betts. He did it at MSG in 2007 also when he went up and sucker punched Aaron Ward in the mouth.

Today, he nails Betts for no reason other than he was angry about something that had nothing to do with Betts, and he gets a 2-minute penalty. You can guarantee that if someone did something like that against the Penguins, they would get a 10-game suspension.

And here is where Schoenfeld erred. Without Orr in the lineup, and without proper officiating, Brashear had the chance to do this. Nobody was going to make him pay. Paul Mara ran at him, pushed him a little, grappled with him, didn't drop the gloves, and got a 2-minute minor of his own.

No one was in the lineup to offer accountability. The Rangers had very little injuries this year (I believe they had the 2nd least man-games lost this season). Some of the credit has to go to Orr, a great fighter who isn't afraid to pummel someone into oblivion. No one like Dion Phaneuf or Chris Pronger is going to take a run at Scott Gomez (but really, why would you?) if Orr was there, because they have to answer to him.

(Do you think Shaone Morrison would've bitten Brandon Dubinsky if Orr was there to beat him down afterwards?)

When Gomez injured Ryan Miller a few months ago (on accident), no one made him pay. If Derek Roy or Maxim Afinogenov ran into Lundqvist, they, or someone on their team, would have to lose a fight to Orr.

Orr needs to be in the lineup. Maybe Schoenfeld wanted offense and saw Orr's 4 career goals. Maybe he doesn't know that he is there to keep the peace.

Someone should also show him Orr's scouting report before Game 7...

"Can't skate well. Has better accuracy with a left hook than a wrist shot. Will fight anyone on the other team. With him in the lineup, no one will take runs at your top penalty killer or star goaltender, and no one will bite your second-line center. Better than Aaron Voros. Don't sit him the playoffs in favor of aforementioned player, who should be a healthy scratch."

* * *

And finally, let's give it up for Tom Poti, who apparently had his first power play point ever at MSG, and Wade Redden.

Here's to you, Wade Redden. You are stealing 39 million dollars from the fans of the Rangers over the next 6 years, and when your team is down 2-1 in a clinching game, and you get gifted power play time for some reason, what do you do? Lazily reach for a pass, miss it, and slowly chase the puck back into your own end.

Bravo. Bravo. Bravo.

You are hockey's version of Stephon Marbury, with one major difference. He hurt his team by stealing money and not suiting up; you steal money and you play.

Wow

Zach titled his last post, "Saw That Coming". This one should be titled, "Should Have Seen That Coming".

On Friday night, my wife and I had the family over for a barbecue. My father-in-law is a Rangers fan, and a cynical one at that. As the Rangers faltered in Game 5, he remarked to me that he thought they were going to end up losing the series. I told him, flat out, there was no way the Rangers were going to lose this series. However, we did agree that the Rangers' entire team is Henrik Lundqvist. I went as far as to joke that Lundqvist should win the Hart Trophy every year.

Now? Turns out he may be right. As I type this, the Rangers just scored a goal to make the game 5-2 in favor of Washington. For the second straight game, Henrik Lundqvist is watching the third period from the bench in a Rangers hat. Lundqvist wasn't very sharp today, nor was he on Friday; it's no surprise that the Rangers lost these two games.

Suddenly, the Rangers are in deep doo-doo. They'll be traveling to a hot crowd in Washington to play Game 7 on the road. The Capitals were 29-9-3 at home this season. Lundqvist is a mess. The usual suspects still aren't showing up. The one saving grace is that the Rangers will get their coach back on Tuesday - but they had John Tortorella behind the bench in Game 5 and still got blown out.

Long story short? The Rangers have their work cut out for them. If they don't advance to the second round - a scenario that's looking very likely - there will be plenty of blame to be passed around. And there's not a single person in the entire organization who should be absolved.

Saw That Coming...

People were getting mad at me for telling them the Rangers would be crushed today, and lo and behold, they were. I hope I'm right in saying that they would also win at MSG on Sunday. And I'm glad that if Henrik Lundqvist was going to have a night off, this was it, in a game the Rangers could afford to lose so long as they remember to show up for Game 6.

What I didn't see coming was 30 year old players not playing the body. When Alex Ovechkin blew by Dan Girardi and Marc Staal to score, I understood it. They are young, they might not know how to play defense. But Chris Drury is 32, Derek Morris is 30. Do they not know to play the puck, do not play the player!

I expect it when Michael Rozsival or Wade Redden make that mistake; they're awful at their jobs. But Morris and Drury? C'mon!

Rangers Up 3-1, So Let's Talk About Penalties...

You've watched the game, you TiVo-ed Rangers in 60, and you already read all about the game on the Internet.

Let me just say a few things, then...

- - Sean Avery took 2 penalties in the last half of the third period, the first being on a race for the puck by the Capitals' goal line. I think this was a marginal penalty, at best. It didn't look like he actually meant to hit Milan Jurcina. Granted, I might be completely wrong, because lately it seems like Avery "accidentally" hits people a lot. But it truly appears to me that he was turning his body quickly, didn't see Jurcina bending over, and clocked him on accident in the head.

The second penalty, though, when he hit a Capital in the face/neck with his stick, was stupid. Yes, Brian Pothier sold the move like he got shot by a bazooka, but Avery never should have done it. I will stand by Avery and how he plays, but this was a stupid, selfish move. He normally puts his teammates first on the ice, and everything he does is to get under someone's skin or help his linemates, but this was stupid. Instead of hitting Alex Semin or Alex Ovechkin, he has been concentrating on bums like Tom Poti and Pothier.

Shouldn't the first penalty, the punch on Jurcina, maybe been a 4-minute minor since it drew blood? Or is that only for high-sticking calls?

- - Quick sidenote: I remember a Ranger game in Boston that I was at in 2006-07 when both teams had a #68 and a #81, and I thought that was really cool. (For the record, Jurcina, Jaromir Jagr, Marcel Hossa, and Phil Kessel.)

- - Paul Mara also took 2 stupid penalties. The first was an interference call where he laid someone out away from the play. A dumb penalty, probably, but you could see the point in it. He knocked someone hard who could have gotten to the puck when it wrapped around the boards.

The second one, where he pushed someone who was chasing the puck into a corner, was ridiculous. It, like Avery's stick-to-the-head, served no purpose and just put the Rangers into a 2-minute hole where Ovechkin, Semin, or Mike Green could've dented the Rangers.

- - Mike Green took a "good" penalty before. He was exhausted from playing a full power play, and when he let Fred Sjostrom blaze by him, he hooked him and took him down before Sjostrom could get the puck.

While he never should have let him blow by him like that, he took a good penalty because it saved a breakaway and it didn't lead to a penalty shot. Avery's hit on Pothier and Mara's useless shove were bad penalties. If a penalty stops a scoring chance, or teaches someone a lesson not to mess with your teammates, that's fine, and a solid 2-minute penalty kill can help your team. But useless penalties demoralize you and invigorate the other team.

- - By the way, there was a part in the 3rd period when the Capitals were on the power play that made me laugh. Every player on the ice, Capitals, Rangers, were completely beat. The Capitals keep their players (Ovechkin, Semin, Green, Nik Backstrom) on so long that by the 1:50 mark of the power play they are phoning it in; and the Rangers had their PK unit out for so long because the couldn't clear.

The end result: a listless power play that couldn't even pass the puck, and a PK unit that couldn't even stop a weak pass.

* * *

All in all, a huge game, like I said earlier, and a gigantic win. It leaves a barrier now where they can win in Washington Friday, but they don't have to.

They now know that even if they lose Game 5, they can close it out on home ice Sunday.

Big Game...

I know you know this, and I don't mean to state the obvious, but this game tonight is huge.

Regardless of tonight's outcome, I think the Rangers will lose Game 5 Friday night. If the Rangers win, they take a 3-1 lead in the series and can afford to lose a game in Washington, knowing that the series comes back to the Garden for Game 6, where they can put it away.

If they lose, though, tonight, they might be in a bad spot. Of course, the same cliches will be said by Chris Drury, Scott Gomez, Henrik Lundqvist, and John Tortorella: "One game at a time, one period at a time, one shift at a time." "It's not a best-of-3 series." "We're tied, we're not out of this." "Anything can happen."

But you know they can't afford to lose this. Not only will momentum swing to Washington, but they'll be in an opposing building for Game 5. Yes, they are 2-0 this week in that city, but you don't want to go into a hostile environment NEEDING a victory. You want to go in there Friday thinking a victory is a luxury, but knowing you'll win on Sunday night if you lose Friday.

And due to a family situation, I sold my tickets to tonight's game and will be watching from my couch. Game 1 I watched when I got home from work that night not knowing the outcome; Game 2 I watched some at home, missed the second and most of the third period, and caught the last 4 minutes at Bryan's house; Game 3 I watched at work and didn't bother watching at home when I saw how it went.

So, the couch it is, and thankfully, the game won't be on Versus. I am also bursting with anticipation on which company will be advertised on the plexiglass behind Lundqvist and Simeon Varlamov.

Controversy In Carolina

Tonight's Devils-Hurricanes game had a bit of a controversial ending. For those who haven't seen the highlights, Carolina broke a 3-3 tie by scoring a goal with 0.2 seconds left. The kicker, though, is that Carolina's Jussi Jokinen bumped into Martin Brodeur just before the deciding shot was fired. As you can imagine, Martin Brodeur - not exactly the most gracious of losers - wasn't very happy, slamming his stick against the ice and the boards as he exited the arena.

You can also imagine how this was treated on the Devils' broadcast. It sounded like a wrestling angle where the bad guy gets screwed over and brings in video evidence to prove their point. They even broke out the NHL rulebook, which proved that it should be a goal; of course, the part about it being a judgment call by the on-ice official and not the review officials was completely ignored. The other part that wasn't mentioned is that the bump took place a full two seconds before the shot was fired and that Brodeur easily should have made the save. Never mind that Jokinen should have had a blocker in his lower back before any other contact even took place.

The announcers went on to state that the referee didn't have to call an interference penalty on Jokinen; they could just reverse the goal and play overtime 5-on-5. That's fine, except you can't prove that the interference definitively caused the goal. If Jokinen bumped Brodeur while the shot was in the air, that'd be one thing. But to ask the referees to disallow a goal just because of incidental contact seconds earlier is ridiculous.

One last thing. If certain players had thrown the same temper-tantrum as Brodeur, they'd be looking at a fairly significant fine. But not Brodeur, the NHL's golden boy, Mr. 552 Wins. Instead, we'll get endless platitudes about his passion and how "all he cares about is winning". Make sure you have a barf bag ready as you watch Game 5 of this series.

Capitals Win, 4-0

After two very impressive road wins, the Rangers returned home. The Garden faithful (and their awesome glow-in-the-dark) ThunderStix welcomed their home team with open arms. Unfortunately, that's about where things peaked, as the good old Rangers showed up.

The announcers kept talking about how the near-goal by Ryan Callahan was the turning point of the game; after all, if that puck went in, Alexander Semin wouldn't have scored and the game would have been tied 1-1. However, the Caps finally brought their A-game to these playoffs. The Rangers, on the other hand, did not.

If you've read this blog for a while, you've probably read Zach's rants about the Tom Renney-led Rangers and how that team has occasionally shown up under the tutelage of John Tortorella. Tonight was one such night. How bad was it? I actually had to check the boxscore to see if Chris Drury played tonight. Turns out he got ten minutes of ice time. I would have checked to see if Scott Gomez play, but I happened to see him on the ice during the pre-game. Wade Redden managed a whopping one shot on goal in 4:30 of power play time. As a whole, the Rangers were 0-for-6 on the power play, even if some of those power plays didn't last for the full two minutes.

The reason for that, of course, is Sean Avery's 18 penalty minutes. By my estimation, at least two of his four minor penalties were unjustified. The truth is, Avery's repuation precedes him and referees will never give him the benefit of the doubt. This was evidenced when John Erskine cross-checked Avery into the goal right in front of the referee, who declined to call a penalty. It'll be interesting to see if Avery is called into Gary Bettman's office tomorrow after his cheap shot at Simeon Varlamov; the hit certainly fell into the category of a message-sending attack when the score was already decided.

This isn't to knock Avery at all. Avery, Callahan and Lundqvist were the only Rangers to act like they cared about winning. But even a great performance by Lundqvist wasn't enough to win. And make no mistake about it, Varlamov was great tonight. Varlamov, whose goalie mask still features the logo of the AHL's Hershey Bears, can confidently get a new paint job, because he's not going anywhere. One of the best parts of the playoffs is seeing young players emerge as legitimate contributors on the NHL level. Being an upgrade over Jose Theodore isn't saying much, but Varlamov has given the Capitals new life in a series that is suddenly looking like it could go the distance.

You'd like to hope the real Rangers show up on Wednesday night. As an unbiased observer, I sure hope they do. And with home-ice advantage on the line, the Rangers should pull out all the stops on Wednesday. So should the Capitals. We should be in store for a great game on Wednesday.

Which Series is This More Like?...

The Capitals won the Southeast Division this year, and are down 2-0. So, which series is this most like?

2005-06 - Southeast-winning Carolina Hurricanes lost the first 2 at home to Montreal, then replaced Martin Gerber in net with Cam Ward. Ward led the 'Canes to victories in the next 4 games, then they went on to win the Stanley Cup.

2006-07 - Southeast-winning Atlanta Thrashers lose the first 2 at home in the series against the Rangers. They lose Game 1 4-3, then replace goalie Kari Lehtonen with Johan Hedberg. Hedberg loses Game 2 by a score of 2-1 (on a freak bounce-shot by Sean Avery), and they go back to Lehtonen for Game 3. They lose that game 7-0, and Hedberg is back in net for the loss in the elimination game, Game 4.

Will Jose Theodore be back in net for Game 3? He accepted responsibility for the loss in Game 1 and wanted a chance to redeem himself, but Caps' coach Bruce Boudreau went with the rookie, Simeon Varlamov. Will he do a switch, even though Varlamov only let in one goal? Hedberg had a decent game in Game 2 but sat the next game.

* * *

That was great defensive coverage by Tom Poti on the Ryan Callahan goal. Poti went to cover Markus Naslund on his right side, and with his left hand, motioned for the other Capitals defenseman to cover Callahan. Thing is, there wasn't another D-man there, Callahan easily accepted a good pass from Naslund, and scored the only goal of the game.

I don't care if you're reading this as a Ranger or Islander fan. Be happy Tom Poti is on neither of these teams anymore.

Matt Gilroy...

I won't dwell much on a player who won't be in a Ranger uniform for another 5 months, but I will add a few notes on Matt Gilroy.

This year, the Rangers have 6 defensemen (regardless of whether or not you think some of them are really "7th d-men").

Next year, the following 4 will still be under contract: Wade Redden (5 more years); Michal Rozsival (3 more years); Dan Girardi (1 more year then UFA); and Marc Staal (1 more year then RFA, will be extended long-term next year).

That leaves Paul Mara and Derek Morris.

So we have 4 under contract, and Corey Potter and Matt Gilroy, both NHL-ready (or will be by the time training camp rolls around). I say Gilroy will be NHL-ready for two reasons: 1) He could have signed in the NHL last year but wanted to play one more year at Boston University so he could win the title and play with his brother and graduate. 2) You don't give a minor-leaguer a $2.5M deal for 2 years.

That leaves 6 defensemen. I'm assuming Potter will be on the big club next year. He's cheap ($542,000 against the cap) and still has a year left on his deal.

But what about Bobby Sanguinetti? He's making $855,000 to stay in the minors. Wouldn't they want him on the team? By all accounts, he will be ready to play in the NHL next year too. There's also a guy named Vladimir Denisov in the AHL who is having a good year and could be a 7th defenseman (will probably serve as an injury call-up though).

And don't count out Paul Mara. He could have signed elsewhere for $3M last offseason, but chose to stay a Ranger for $1.95M. “There was interest from other teams but I wanted to win in New York" is what he said in July when he re-signed. He has also played very well this year, better than he did last year, and you can't deny that someone plays better when he wants to be here as opposed to just collecting a $6.5M paycheck.

So what am I getting at? I'm saying that something will have to give. The four under contract, Gilroy, Potter, Sanguinetti, maybe even Mara, that's a lot of D-men. A trade will have to happen to accomodate everything, and of course, we'll all hope it will be Redden or Rozsival. I think it would have to be Rozsival, because it's hard to move a $30M+ contract when the player has no desire to be good.

Of course, this is Glen Sather we're talking about, the man who got the same player 3 times in a week last July when he signed Aaron Voros and Pat Rissmiller and traded for Dan Fritsche. What he probably will do is trade for another defenseman, sign someone on July 1, and start the season with 9 on the blueline.

A Fact, An Opinion, and a Mistake...

MISTAKE
I think a lot of people erred when they (me included) predicted the Sharks would sweep the Ducks. I think we overlooked the fact that even though these Ducks aren't the same as they were 2 years ago, they still have Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer on the blueline, and Francois Beauchemin is back from injury. Those are 3 big assets to have on a team, and they can have anyone of them on the ice at any given time. Add in Ryan Whitney, and that's a scary defense that not a lot of people took into account.

They sure shut down Joe Thornton today. His only shot came with like a minute left in the game.

For those who didn't catch the end of the game, it was scoreless going into the 3rd period, but the Ducks scored 2 to win it. The Sharks did hit 2 posts in that period though.

OPINION
Ian LaPierre, the "Sean Avery" of the Montreal Canadiens (albeit with less skill and without Avery's stunningly good looks), should be suspended. Tonight, the Bruins scored an empty-net goal to ice the game 4-2, and LaPierre just went and hit him while he was celebrating.

His back wasn't turned like when Dale Hunter attacked Pierre Turgeon in 1993, but there is no place for crap like that in this game. I know they allow fighting in the game, but that is in the heat of the moment (or should only be) and should deter punks like LaPierre from doing that cheap stuff.

He didn't injure Phil Kessel, but he could have, and it was after the play, after a goal, and with nothing to be gained. A one-game suspension should do the trick, like they gave Dan Carcillo in Philadelphia for a useless cheapshot last night.

FACT
The Rangers have been in 5 playoff serieses since the lockout (not including the current one against the Capitals). In those 5 matchups, the team who won Game 1 wo the series.

They lost to the Devils 6-1 in 2005-06. The next season, they beat Atlanta 4-3 and lost to Buffalo 5-2. (I still maintain that if they won Game 5, there was no way Buffalo would have won Game 6 at the Garden that year.) Last year, they beat the Devils 4-1 in Game 1 and then lost to the Penguins 5-4 in the opening of that series.

Not a stone-cold fact, but it's worth noting. Makes you feel a lot better hearing that stat now that they do have that lead though, doesn't it?