Islanders Free Agency Preview

As the Islanders approach July 1, there's only one thing that most people can say about their free agency chances - don't expect much. Last year, July 1st saw every Islanders free agent signing elsewhere, most notably Ryan Smyth and Jason Blake. Clearly, Garth Snow knew something we all didn't, as both Blake and Smyth went on to have subpar years in Toronto and Colorado respectively. However, he didn't exactly restock the team very well, handing out one-year deals to grinders and infamously leaving the first day of free agency with only Jon Sim signed. What has Snow learned from last year? Does he have a different approach this year, having seen so many of his young prospects in the NHL last year? We'll find out on Tuesday.

However, we here at The Rivalry enjoy prognosticating (and, of course, feeling like we can perform the job of general manager better than half the GMs in the league). With the salary cap and salary floor rising this year, the Islanders should be one of the more active teams in the league. (Note: They won't be.) With this in mind, let's look at the Islanders as they stand now.

All contract data comes from Isles Info.

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THE SURE THINGS
These are those players who are under contract with the Islanders that are assured of making the Opening Day roster and, barring a trade, sticking with the big club for the entire season.

GOALIE
- Rick DiPietro ($4.5 million, 13 years left)

DEFENSE
- Chris Campoli ($625,000, 2 years left)
- Radek Martinek ($1.5 million, 3 years left)
- Freddy Meyer ($600,000, 2 years left)
- Andy Sutton ($3 million, 2 years left)

FORWARDS
- Trent Hunter ($2 million, 5 years left)
- Kyle Okposo (no contract data available, 2 years left)
- Richard Park ($700,000, 2 years left)
- Jon Sim ($1 million, 2 years left)

TOTALS
- Nine players, $13,925,000

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RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
These players are not under contract, but their rights remain with the team. They have all been given qualifying offers of 10% above their 2007 salaries (those making more than $600,000 in 2007-08 only require 5% raises). For our purposes, we will assume that all players will accept these offers, which in all cases do not need to be one-way contracts.

GOALIE
- None

DEFENSE
- Bruno Gervais ($495,000, 1 year left)

FORWARDS
- Sean Bergenheim ($550,000, 1 year left)
- Jeremy Colliton ($735,000, 1 year left)
- Frans Nielsen ($561,000, 1 year left)
- Jeff Tambellini ($821,908.50, 1 year left)
- Ben Walter ($632,000, 1 year left)

TOTALS
- Six players, $3,299,908.50

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TRADE BAIT
These are players with deals that expire after this season. After the season, they will be unrestricted free agents.

GOALIE
- Joey MacDonald ($500,000, 1 year left)

DEFENSE
- Brendan Witt ($2.5 million, 1 year left)

FORWARDS
- Mike Comrie ($4 million, 1 year left)
- Bill Guerin ($4.5 million, 1 year left)
- Andy Hilbert ($700,000, 1 year left)
- Mike Sillinger ($2.1 million, 1 year left)

TOTALS
- Six players, $14,300,000

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OOPS
These are players who were bought out by the Islanders while they were still under contract.

GOALIES
- None

DEFENSE
- None

FORWARDS
- Shawn Bates ($800,000)
- Alexei Yashin ($2.2 million)

TOTALS
- Two players (zero active), $3,000,000

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GRAND TOTAL
- Twenty-one players, $34,524,908.50

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So, what to make of this? Here are the simple facts about the Islanders' approach in free agency.
- Assuming Okposo makes somewhere around $500,000, The Islanders need to spend approxmiately $5 million just to meet the 2008-09 salary floor.
- The Islanders have, at minimum, two spots to fill in order to complete a 23-man roster.
- The Islanders may be able to add even more than two players if they send down any of their restricted free agents.
- The Islanders love to go after guys coming off bad years or with something to prove, and will usually give one-year deals to these type of players.
- The Islanders, in line with Garth Snow's philosophy, will not be caught overpaying for anybody who isn't worth the money.

Now, let's look at potential lines for this team. Healthy scratches make negligible dollars and aren't included against the cap for our purposes.

OFFENSE
Jeff Tambellini-Mike Comrie-Bill Guerin
Sean Bergenheim-Mike Sillinger-Kyle Okposo
Jon Sim-Jeremy Colliton-Trent Hunter
Andy Hilbert-Frans Nielsen-Blake Comeau

DEFENSE
Brendan Witt-Chris Campoli
Bruno Gervais-Andy Sutton
Radek Martinek-Freddy Meyer

GOALIE
Rick DiPietro
Joey MacDonald

HEALTHY SCRATCHES
Tim Jackman
Jack Hillen
Ben Walter

When I look at this potential lineup, three needs stick out at me...
- More offense from the top two lines
- An offensive-minded, puck-moving defenseman
- A more capable back-up goalie

Let's look at each of those needs individually, and see if there are any players out there that could help.

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MORE OFFENSE FROM THE TOP TWO LINES
This is a problem the Islanders have had for a very, very long time. Kyle Okposo is going to be a top scorer on this team very soon, but there's nobody who can complement him particularly well. Mike Comrie is a good playmaker, but there's no guarantee the two will be playing together; besides, the line wouldn't exactly be too physically imposing. It's best to split the two, but the likes of Mike Sillinger and Bill Guerin can only do so much.

A goal-scoring left winger wouldn't hurt. Nor would a lunchpail, bang-in-the-garbage type of player to crowd the front of the net. Michael Ryder could be a pretty good option for the Islanders - he's coming off an off-year, and may take one of Snow's patented one-year contracts to prove his worth. Another potential one-year guy could be Ladislav Nagy, who was putting together a fine season before getting hurt in January. And, as much as Islander fans would hate it, Darcy Tucker would certainly fit the bill of a player capable of scoring and being a physical presence.

There are also a bevy of ex-Islanders to consider - Arron Asham, Michael Peca, Mike York, and Brad Isbister are all available. However, none of these guys are really the answer. The Isles need someone who can hang around for a while, and these players were all traded for a reason. Ultimately, there are some decent players out there, but there aren't many great buys to be had. Snow would do best to get what he can get, but not break the bank. That said, offense has to be the key, not any combination of grit, character, and heart.

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AN OFFENSIVE-MINDED, PUCK-MOVING DEFENSEMAN
Say what you want to about Marc-Andre Bergeron, but when he was an Islander in 2006-07, he averaged nearly a point per game and the Islanders made the playoffs. Last season, the tandem of Bergeron and Bryan Berard didn't perform nearly as well. Now, with Berard seemingly moving elsewhere and Bergeron gone to his third team in this calendar year, it's time to retool the defense.

Chris Campoli is becoming a solid offensive defenseman, but he could use some support in a group of players who don't contribute much offensively. There's the Rangers equivalent of Bergeron, Michal Roszival, but as Zach has said before, let someone else overpay for him. The big name in this year's free agent crop is Mark Streit. People say he's not too strong in his defensive end, but he just completed his third year in the NHL and contributed 62 points. That's pretty impressive. Better than that, the Colorado Avalanche, a team many thought would be a major competitor for Streit's services, just re-signed John-Michael Liles to a four-year deal. If the Islanders overpay for anybody, it should be Streit - though it should be cautioned that he played for Montreal, the best offensive team in the East this year.

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A MORE CAPABLE BACKUP
I'm sure Joey MacDonald is a wonderful person and a good goalie. That said, the Islanders claim to be committed to giving Rick DiPietro more rest this year. (Note: They say this every year. They never do it.) So it would be a good idea to get a solid backup in there, not only as a failsafe, but to keep MacDonald motivated and to actually let him win the backup job in training camp.

The list of notable backups are endless. Alex Auld, Jocelyn Thibault, John Grahame, Patrick Lalime, Dan Cloutier, David Aebischer, Scott Clemmensen, Andrew Raycroft... wow. That's a lot of names. Surely, one of them would take $750,000 to open up the bench door 65 nights a year and play the other 17 (hopefully). It's a good insurance policy to have. If the veteran backup wins the job, MacDonald gets sent down; if he clears waivers, the Islanders have someone ready in Bridgeport - never a bad thing. If MacDonald wins out, the Islanders trade the vet for a late draft pick. Hard to lose in this situation. In my eyes, it's a more than worthwhile investment, especially since the Islanders will be nowhere near the cap.

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OTHER WANTS
It'd sure be nice to get an enforcer this year. Jody Shelley is a free agent, as is the aforementioned Arron Asham. Even giving Kip Brennan a shot at the big club would be a good idea. As I've mentioned before, the Islanders sure didn't drop the gloves for a team that prided itself on its' grit (they were 26th in the league in fighting majors last year).

I wouldn't mind seeing a trade, as long as it were for the right player. The Islanders now have the resources (and the cap room) to make a pretty big splash on the trade market. Problem is, they'll have even more leverage around the trade deadline, with tons of veterans to move - especially if they're out of playoff contention. So they probably won't do anything, even though it wouldn't cost that much more to do something now.

In the end, though, I want to get a better picture of where the Islanders are headed. One-year deals to crappy veterans only patch up the fact that the farm system isn't where it needs to be. I'd like to see the Islanders bring in players to complement the young guys, help move them along, and let these veterans be part of it when the Islanders become a good team again. Signing two or three veteran leaders to three-year deals is a great thing, especially when they can contribute to the team. In other words, I'd rather see another Mike Sillinger-type deal than another one-and-done waste like Ruslan Fedotenko or Josef Vasicek.

It's going to be very interesting to see how things play out with the Islanders. Nobody's expecting the Islanders to do much this season, both in free agency and during the season, but the Isles could use a playoff year to keep interest high. It's going to be up to Snow to make the right deals for the right players - and it wouldn't hurt to make a splash, either. Losing Ryan Smyth last July 1 hurt more than anybody would care to mention. Perhaps more than anything else, Islander fans want to see their team bring in players who want to play on Long Island.

Mr. Snow, you're on the clock. Good luck.