With the whole world making predictions on the 2008-09 NHL season, The Rivalry is no different. Here are Bryan's picks for the upcoming season.
OK, everyone's going to be doing the same damn preview as everyone else. So let me shake things up a bit. First, we'll go through last year's results and see how these teams compare to how they did a year ago in terms of points - will they have more points, fewer points, or the same number? Next, we'll rank the teams the same way everyone does and do year-end awards. Lastly, we have some random awards that probably won't come true, but why not speculate a bit?
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Montreal (104 points in 2007-08): Less points. After struggling in the playoffs last year, the Habs will have trouble overwhelming teams as they did last year. Look for Carey Price to bounce back, though.
- Prediction: 96 points
2) Pittsburgh (102): More. With a full season of Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury, this team should be better than last year. They lost a lot of role players, but did a good job filling in the gaps.
- Prediction: 108 points
3) Washington (94): More. Eighteen games against Carolina, Atlanta, and Florida will help the Caps continue their momentum from last season. The young players will have more experience, and Jose Theodore should provide capable goaltending.
- Prediction: 102 points
4) New Jersey (99): Less. Even though the whole '95 Cup team is back, the fact is that this is 2008. It seems as though the Devils might be a bit more up-tempo this year, but there might not be enough talent to really pull it off.
- Prediction: 92 points
5) NY Rangers (97): More. Assuming Henrik Lundqvist can play at a high level for the whole season, the Rangers should improve on last year's numbers. The team is better than it was last year; their Cup aspriations are legitimate.
- Prediction: 101 points
6) Philadelphia (96): Same. Philadelphia was one of the league's best teams down the stretch last year. Jeff Carter is poised to make The Leap this year, and the Flyers might have finally found a franchise goalie in Martin Biron.
- Prediction: 96 points
7) Ottawa (94): Less. Ottawa was dreadful for the second half of last season and was even worse in the playoffs. Even though there's a lot of talent in Ottawa, it seems like the current team has gone as far as it's going to go.
- Prediction: 90 points
8) Boston (94): More. Boston was very impressive in last year's playoffs; their young players gained a wealth of experience in their series with Montreal. Playing in a subpar division, the Bruins should continue to climb the ladder in the East.
- Prediction: 98 points
9) Carolina (92): Less. As much as us Islander fans love Peter Laviolette, he'll soon be fired from his second job. Carolina is just a mess these days, and it's unfortunate. They need to rebuild through the draft, and should have a premium pick next year.
- Prediction: 82 points
10) Buffalo (90): Same. On paper, the Sabres underachieved last year... but let's not forget that they've lost Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell over the past fifteen months. It's hard to see how they could improve, but Buffalo always finds good players to field a competitive team.
- Prediction: 90 points
11) Florida (85): Same. Will Florida ever be good? Hard to say. They play in the right division, but they don't have the personnel. Tomas Vokoun is great in net, but who's going to score the goals?
- Prediction: 83 points
12) Toronto (83): More. Even though Toronto pretty much blew for much of last year, they did have a run last year when they played pretty decent hockey. They won't be a playoff team, but they do appear to be on the way to something. They need a goalie desperately, though.
- Prediction: 87 points
13) NY Islanders (79): Less. Sorry to say it, but the Islanders have an extremely inexperienced team in what might be the toughest division in the NHL. Those first overall draft pick predictions are quite appropriate.
- Prediction: 72 points
14) Atlanta (76): More. John Anderson was a great coach in the minors, and should be just as good in the NHL. Unfortunately, Atlanta isn't very talented outside of Kari Lehtonen and Ilya Kovalchuk. The Thrashers should be thankful they play in the Southeast Division.
- Prediction: 82 points
15) Tampa Bay (71): More. Seeing as how the new NHL is more about offense, it's shocking that Barry Melrose didn't get hired years ago. He might not have Gretzky and Robitaille, but he has plenty of offensive talent. And Mike Smith is going to be a tremendous goalie.
- Prediction: 94 points
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) Detroit (115): Less. It's not that the Wings have gotten significantly worse, just that the other teams in their division have gotten a little better. They're still the team to beat until further notice.
- Prediction: 106 points
2) San Jose (108): Less. The Sharks might struggle to find their way this season with a new coach and tons of expectations after their recent playoff failures. They'll find it in plenty of time, though. Evgeni Nabokov might finally win the Vezina - it's about f'ing time.
- Prediction: 103 points
3) Minnesota (98): Less. The Xcel Energy Center has never had an empty seat for a regular season or playoff game. But that might change if the Wild don't make a playoff run soon. Look for yet another season of boring but effective play.
- Prediction: 94 points
4) Anaheim (102): Less. The Ducks, not unlike the Devils, find themselves in salary cap hell. The Ducks have a ton of quality young players, but with so many older players taking up significant cap space, the Ducks can't truly build around them. As such, the Ducks aren't a serious Cup threat.
- Prediction: 96 points
5) Dallas (97): More. The Stars gave up a lot to get Brad Richards, but they intend to make him the focus of their team along with Brenden Morrow and Marty Turco. Sean Avery only helps to make a strong playoff team even stronger.
- Prediction: 101 points
6) Colorado (95): Less. It's a sad state of affairs in Colorado these days. It's a good thing they brought the Adam Footes of the world back, because the team sure isn't going to be doing very much in the playoffs - if they even get that far.
- Prediction: 88 points
7) Calgary (94): More. Last year's playoff performance was no fluke. Mike Keenan's unorthodox methods work, and he's finally starting to have an impact on this Flames team. They've only improved with the acquisition of Mike Cammalleri.
- Prediction: 97 points
8) Nashville (91): Less. The Nashville Predators have only had one coach in their history so far. Will Barry Trotz finally pay the price for not getting past the first round? Probably not. Still, they need a playoff run to get the fans really invested in the team. That won't happen this year.
- Prediction: 86 points
9) Edmonton (88): Same. Sure, the Oilers are better than they were last year... but they won't get fifteen shootout wins this year, either. So the numbers will cancel each other out, and the Oilers will remain on the verge of a playoff spot. One year from now, they'll be ready to make a run.
- Prediction: 88 points
10) Chicago (88): More. Everyone's on the Blackhawks' bandwagon to start the season. And who can blame them? It's not going to come as easy as everyone things, but the Hawks are a clear playoff team. They remind me of the 2006-07 Penguins - a great regular season team that has to learn to win in the playoffs.
- Prediction: 98 points
11) Vancouver (88): More. The big focus this year is going to be getting the Sedins and Roberto Luongo to buy into the team enough to sign long-term. These are guys the Canucks can build around, but they need to convince the players to stick around. That's more important than losing in the first round of the playoffs, which they may well do.
- Prediction: 91 points
12) Phoenix (83): More. The Coyotes were right in the thick of it until the end last year, and they should be able to improve this season. Wayne Gretzky finally seems comfortable as a coach, and you know the young players are working as hard as possible to please him. The playoffs are a definite possibility.
- Prediction: 93 points
13) Columbus (80): More. Michael Peca claims the Blue Jackets are a 100-point team. Not in a division with the Red Wings and Blackhawks, anyway. Maybe in the Southeast. The Jackets desperately need a playoff berth to show fans that the team is worth their time and money.
- Prediction: 86 points
14) St. Louis (79): More. JD's plan is finally starting to take shape, as the Blues have one of the more enviable collections of young talent in the league. If the Blackhawks are the 2006-07 Penguins, the Blues are the 2005-06 Penguins; by season's end, they'll be a team nobody wants to play.
- Prediction: 87 points
15) Los Angeles (71): More. It's hard to get fewer than 71 points, and the Kings have studs like Anze Kopitar that are ready to become stars. Pick up Brian Boyle in your fantasy league and thank me later.
- Prediction: 82 points
OK, everyone's going to be doing the same damn preview as everyone else. So let me shake things up a bit. First, we'll go through last year's results and see how these teams compare to how they did a year ago in terms of points - will they have more points, fewer points, or the same number? Next, we'll rank the teams the same way everyone does and do year-end awards. Lastly, we have some random awards that probably won't come true, but why not speculate a bit?
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Montreal (104 points in 2007-08): Less points. After struggling in the playoffs last year, the Habs will have trouble overwhelming teams as they did last year. Look for Carey Price to bounce back, though.
- Prediction: 96 points
2) Pittsburgh (102): More. With a full season of Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury, this team should be better than last year. They lost a lot of role players, but did a good job filling in the gaps.
- Prediction: 108 points
3) Washington (94): More. Eighteen games against Carolina, Atlanta, and Florida will help the Caps continue their momentum from last season. The young players will have more experience, and Jose Theodore should provide capable goaltending.
- Prediction: 102 points
4) New Jersey (99): Less. Even though the whole '95 Cup team is back, the fact is that this is 2008. It seems as though the Devils might be a bit more up-tempo this year, but there might not be enough talent to really pull it off.
- Prediction: 92 points
5) NY Rangers (97): More. Assuming Henrik Lundqvist can play at a high level for the whole season, the Rangers should improve on last year's numbers. The team is better than it was last year; their Cup aspriations are legitimate.
- Prediction: 101 points
6) Philadelphia (96): Same. Philadelphia was one of the league's best teams down the stretch last year. Jeff Carter is poised to make The Leap this year, and the Flyers might have finally found a franchise goalie in Martin Biron.
- Prediction: 96 points
7) Ottawa (94): Less. Ottawa was dreadful for the second half of last season and was even worse in the playoffs. Even though there's a lot of talent in Ottawa, it seems like the current team has gone as far as it's going to go.
- Prediction: 90 points
8) Boston (94): More. Boston was very impressive in last year's playoffs; their young players gained a wealth of experience in their series with Montreal. Playing in a subpar division, the Bruins should continue to climb the ladder in the East.
- Prediction: 98 points
9) Carolina (92): Less. As much as us Islander fans love Peter Laviolette, he'll soon be fired from his second job. Carolina is just a mess these days, and it's unfortunate. They need to rebuild through the draft, and should have a premium pick next year.
- Prediction: 82 points
10) Buffalo (90): Same. On paper, the Sabres underachieved last year... but let's not forget that they've lost Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, and Brian Campbell over the past fifteen months. It's hard to see how they could improve, but Buffalo always finds good players to field a competitive team.
- Prediction: 90 points
11) Florida (85): Same. Will Florida ever be good? Hard to say. They play in the right division, but they don't have the personnel. Tomas Vokoun is great in net, but who's going to score the goals?
- Prediction: 83 points
12) Toronto (83): More. Even though Toronto pretty much blew for much of last year, they did have a run last year when they played pretty decent hockey. They won't be a playoff team, but they do appear to be on the way to something. They need a goalie desperately, though.
- Prediction: 87 points
13) NY Islanders (79): Less. Sorry to say it, but the Islanders have an extremely inexperienced team in what might be the toughest division in the NHL. Those first overall draft pick predictions are quite appropriate.
- Prediction: 72 points
14) Atlanta (76): More. John Anderson was a great coach in the minors, and should be just as good in the NHL. Unfortunately, Atlanta isn't very talented outside of Kari Lehtonen and Ilya Kovalchuk. The Thrashers should be thankful they play in the Southeast Division.
- Prediction: 82 points
15) Tampa Bay (71): More. Seeing as how the new NHL is more about offense, it's shocking that Barry Melrose didn't get hired years ago. He might not have Gretzky and Robitaille, but he has plenty of offensive talent. And Mike Smith is going to be a tremendous goalie.
- Prediction: 94 points
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) Detroit (115): Less. It's not that the Wings have gotten significantly worse, just that the other teams in their division have gotten a little better. They're still the team to beat until further notice.
- Prediction: 106 points
2) San Jose (108): Less. The Sharks might struggle to find their way this season with a new coach and tons of expectations after their recent playoff failures. They'll find it in plenty of time, though. Evgeni Nabokov might finally win the Vezina - it's about f'ing time.
- Prediction: 103 points
3) Minnesota (98): Less. The Xcel Energy Center has never had an empty seat for a regular season or playoff game. But that might change if the Wild don't make a playoff run soon. Look for yet another season of boring but effective play.
- Prediction: 94 points
4) Anaheim (102): Less. The Ducks, not unlike the Devils, find themselves in salary cap hell. The Ducks have a ton of quality young players, but with so many older players taking up significant cap space, the Ducks can't truly build around them. As such, the Ducks aren't a serious Cup threat.
- Prediction: 96 points
5) Dallas (97): More. The Stars gave up a lot to get Brad Richards, but they intend to make him the focus of their team along with Brenden Morrow and Marty Turco. Sean Avery only helps to make a strong playoff team even stronger.
- Prediction: 101 points
6) Colorado (95): Less. It's a sad state of affairs in Colorado these days. It's a good thing they brought the Adam Footes of the world back, because the team sure isn't going to be doing very much in the playoffs - if they even get that far.
- Prediction: 88 points
7) Calgary (94): More. Last year's playoff performance was no fluke. Mike Keenan's unorthodox methods work, and he's finally starting to have an impact on this Flames team. They've only improved with the acquisition of Mike Cammalleri.
- Prediction: 97 points
8) Nashville (91): Less. The Nashville Predators have only had one coach in their history so far. Will Barry Trotz finally pay the price for not getting past the first round? Probably not. Still, they need a playoff run to get the fans really invested in the team. That won't happen this year.
- Prediction: 86 points
9) Edmonton (88): Same. Sure, the Oilers are better than they were last year... but they won't get fifteen shootout wins this year, either. So the numbers will cancel each other out, and the Oilers will remain on the verge of a playoff spot. One year from now, they'll be ready to make a run.
- Prediction: 88 points
10) Chicago (88): More. Everyone's on the Blackhawks' bandwagon to start the season. And who can blame them? It's not going to come as easy as everyone things, but the Hawks are a clear playoff team. They remind me of the 2006-07 Penguins - a great regular season team that has to learn to win in the playoffs.
- Prediction: 98 points
11) Vancouver (88): More. The big focus this year is going to be getting the Sedins and Roberto Luongo to buy into the team enough to sign long-term. These are guys the Canucks can build around, but they need to convince the players to stick around. That's more important than losing in the first round of the playoffs, which they may well do.
- Prediction: 91 points
12) Phoenix (83): More. The Coyotes were right in the thick of it until the end last year, and they should be able to improve this season. Wayne Gretzky finally seems comfortable as a coach, and you know the young players are working as hard as possible to please him. The playoffs are a definite possibility.
- Prediction: 93 points
13) Columbus (80): More. Michael Peca claims the Blue Jackets are a 100-point team. Not in a division with the Red Wings and Blackhawks, anyway. Maybe in the Southeast. The Jackets desperately need a playoff berth to show fans that the team is worth their time and money.
- Prediction: 86 points
14) St. Louis (79): More. JD's plan is finally starting to take shape, as the Blues have one of the more enviable collections of young talent in the league. If the Blackhawks are the 2006-07 Penguins, the Blues are the 2005-06 Penguins; by season's end, they'll be a team nobody wants to play.
- Prediction: 87 points
15) Los Angeles (71): More. It's hard to get fewer than 71 points, and the Kings have studs like Anze Kopitar that are ready to become stars. Pick up Brian Boyle in your fantasy league and thank me later.
- Prediction: 82 points
So, having said all that, here's how the actual predictions shake out.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1) Pittsburgh (108)
2) Washington (102)
3) Boston (98)
4) NY Rangers (101)
5) Philadelphia (96)
6) Montreal (96)
7) Tampa Bay (94)
8) New Jersey (92)
9) Buffalo (90)
10) Ottawa (90)
11) Toronto (87)
12) Florida (83)
13) Atlanta (82)
14) Carolina (82)
15) NY Islanders (72)
FIRST ROUND
- (1)Pittsburgh over (8)New Jersey in 6
- (7)Tampa Bay over (2)Washington in 7
- (6)Montreal over (3)Boston in 6
- (4)NY Rangers over (5)Philadelphia in 7
SECOND ROUND
- (1)Pittsburgh over (7)Tampa Bay in 6
- (4)NY Rangers over (6)Montreal in 4
THIRD ROUND
- (4)NY Rangers over (1)Pittsburgh in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1) Detroit (106)
2) San Jose (103)
3) Dallas (101)
4) Chicago (98)
5) Calgary (97)
6) Anaheim (96)
7) Minnesota (94)
8) Phoenix (93)
9) Vancouver (91)
10) Colorado (88)
11) Edmonton (88)
12) St. Louis (87)
13) Columbus (86)
14) Nashville (86)
15) Los Angeles (82)
FIRST ROUND
- (1)Detroit over (8)Phoenix in 5
- (2)San Jose over (7)Minnesota in 4
- (3)Dallas over (6)Anaheim in 7
- (5)Calgary over (4)Chicago in 7
SECOND ROUND
- (1)Detroit over (5)Calgary in 6
- (2)San Jose over (3)Dallas in 7
THIRD ROUND
- (2)San Jose over (1) Detroit in 7
STANLEY CUP FINAL
- (2)San Jose over (4)NY Rangers in 6
INDIVIDUAL PLAYER AWARDS
- Hart Trophy: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh (130 points)
- Art Ross Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington (55 goals)
- William Jennings Trophy: Martin Brodeur, New Jersey (2.20 GAA)
- Maurice Richard Trophy: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington
- Norris Trophy: Dan Boyle, San Jose
- Vezina Trophy: Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose
- Jack Adams Trophy: Barry Melrose, Chicago
- Calder Trophy: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay
- Selke Trophy: Brenden Morrow, Dallas
- Lady Byng Trophy: Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit
- Bill Masteron Trophy: Richard Zednik, Florida
- Conn Smythe Trophy: Milan Michalek, San Jose
RANDOM CATEGORIES
- Most Improved Team: Tampa Bay Lightning
- Least Improved Team: New York Islanders
- Team You Wish You Rooted For: Philadelphia Flyers
- Second-Half Playoff Push Team: Phoenix Coyotes
- Second-Half Out-Of-Nowhere Skater: Eric Nystrom, Calgary
- Second-Half Out-Of-Nowhere Rookie: Claude Giroux, Philadelphia
- Most Underrated Player: Milan Lucic, Boston
- Player Most Likely To Make The Leap: Daniel Carcillo, Phoenix
- Coach That Deserves To Win The Adams, But Won't: Denis Savard, Chicago
- Biggest Free Agent Steal: Andrew Raycroft, Colorado
- Biggest Free Agent Bust: Wade Redden, NY Rangers
- Hot Playoff Goalie: Mike Smith, Tampa Bay
- First Overall Draft Pick Winner: New York Islanders (whoo-hoo!)
I hate to argue with you BUT...
ReplyDelete1) Vesa Toskala is a very good goalie for the Maple Leafs. However, they might get shutout offensively 12 or 13 games next year.
2) It's tough when you assign points to a team as a prediction. You predicted one team - the Islanders - to be under .500, while everyone else will be at .500 or above.
3) I highly disagree on Colorado. Yes, they don't have great goaltending, regardless of your view of Andrew "Troy Duffy" Raycroft, but the offense is there.
The points thing is the only way I could think to do it. Records don't really matter, just the number of points you end up with. And with teams getting points via overtime and shootout losses, 82 points doesn't really mean .500 anymore. 92 points is the magic number for the playoffs these days, whereas it was 80-84 points before the lockout.
ReplyDeleteI hope Colorado surprises me. I sort of forgot how banged-up they were last year, so we'll see. That's one of those teams that if they're good, the NHL is better for it.
I know what you mean with the points thing, but 82 is still .500.
ReplyDelete1-1-80
40-40-2
41-41
35-35-12
Sorry Bryan, but the Islanders will not be the worst team in the league this season.
ReplyDeleteIt'd just be that simple, wouldn't it?
The Islanders, just like last year, will be competitive until roughly February or March. Then they'll start slipping and end up 13th or 12th just like last year.
They're not terrible enough...unfortunately, to get that draft pick.
-Eric