Sunday, March 22, 2009

Morning Draft Lottery Links

Sorry to usurp Zach, but I had to link to this excellent piece by Chris Botta regarding Islanders fans who may be rooting against their team right now. The truth is, ANY fan who even cares about the Islanders right now deserves to root for anything they'd like. This whole debate reminds me of a Bill Simmons article about a similar issue that occurred with the Celtics fanbase in 2007. What's the right answer? It's hard to say. I, for one, think that if the Islanders play as hard as they can, the draft will take care of itself. That said, you only get one chance to draft a superstar who can immediately contribute, and in the Islanders' delicate situation with the Lighthouse, that can be the difference between staying on the Island or moving elsewhere.

I also wanted to link to a rather interesting article by Larry Brooks regarding the draft lottery. Brooks claims that the NHL needs to expand its lottery to all non-playoff teams because it's too tempting for a team with, say, the 6th-worst record to tank just to get into the lottery. And you know what? He has a point. The NBA allows all non-playoff teams into its draft lottery, though only the top four even have a 10% chance at winning; this is a far cry from the days when the Orlando Magic won the lottery despite having the 13th-worst record in the league. Brooks' system suggests that the team's lack of playoff berths and any recent 1st overall picks they may have had be incorporated into the formula, which would make things VERY confusing. But it also might help. Last year's NHL Draft Lottery ended up shaking out exactly as the standings did, and since the team with the worst record has a 48.2% chance of getting the first pick, that makes a lot of sense. Then again, the whole point of a draft lottery is to discourage teams from tanking, not to punish bad teams by not giving them top picks. In short, there might be a better answer, but the odds of the NHL finding it are virtually nil.

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